Change the electricity, the unstoppable 100 billion super outlet

Author: Taylor, Editor: Little City Sister

On April 18, the CATL EVOGO power exchange service was officially launched in Xiamen, and it is expected that by the end of 2021, 30 express change stations will be completed in Xiamen.

On the other hand, WEILAI has built a total of 900 substations across the country, and WEILAI also said that in 2022, it will build a total of 1300+ substations, 6000+ supercharged piles, and 10000+ destination charging piles in the Chinese market.

The layout of these new energy vehicle industry companies points to an industry that has just started but directly affects the speed of electric vehicle discharge - power exchange.

Power exchange is a kind of new energy vehicle energy replenishment method, which mainly refers to the centralized storage and centralized charging of a large number of batteries through centralized charging stations, and then the battery replacement service for electric vehicles is provided centrally in the battery distribution station.

The reason why it is the only way is because the power exchange mode has advantages that other methods cannot match.

The first is the energy replenishment speed.

Even in the fast charging mode of public charging stations, it takes 30-60 minutes to complete a charge. If you take the way of replacing the battery, it takes only 3 minutes at the shortest, which is equal to the refueling speed of the fuel vehicle, which solves the problem of energy replenishment experience.

Second, changing the battery can protect the battery.

Although fast charging shortens the charging time to a certain extent, the working voltage in the fast charging mode is greater than the battery voltage, which will inevitably lead to the battery heating up too fast, and in the long run, it will bring unnecessary damage to the battery, and the way to replace the battery is completely without this concern.

Third, changing the power can reduce the initial cost of buying a car.

Power batteries are the largest cost item for electric vehicles, accounting for about 40%. In the power exchange mode, the car and electricity are separated, and consumers can use the way of renting batteries, which not only greatly reduces the burden of car purchase, but also solves the mismatch problem of battery depreciation and body depreciation.

Finally, power swapping can alleviate the electricity pressure on the grid.

When electric vehicles are widely popularized, huge electricity consumption will inevitably put pressure on the power grid, and the centralized charging method of the replacement power station can stagger the peak of electricity consumption, the principle is similar to energy storage, and it plays a role in peak regulation.

Set many advantages in one, as early as more than a decade ago, Tesla, Better place and other companies in the overseas implementation of the power exchange model, at the same time, the domestic also synchronously in the first-tier cities pilot power station. But more than a decade has passed, the power exchange industry has always been moving forward at a crawling speed, until today, the entire industry has truly entered the growth period from the introduction period.

There are two factors restricting the popularity of power exchange, one is the industry standard, and the other is the scale of electric vehicle ownership.

Different automakers and battery manufacturers launched different calibers of products, including battery size, interface, etc., and the strange models directly affect the operational efficiency and consumer experience of power exchange.

In 2011, the State Grid tried to organize the establishment of a unified power exchange standard, but at that time, the domestic power battery industry had just started, the technology was immature, the pattern was unstable, and the difficulty of unification itself was very large. Coupled with the fact that at that time, it mainly relied on financial subsidies, and the unified standard meant that the benefits were redistributed, and in the face of the change of dominance, all parties had not reached a consensus, and finally could not be solved.

There is no unity in the superstructure, and there is no economic base.

According to GCL Energy's calculations, the investment amount of a single station in a passenger car replacement power station is about 5 million, and the investment amount of heavy truck replacement power station is even to reach the level of tens of millions. The maximum number of service times per day for a single substation is about 400, and to achieve breakeven, the utilization rate must be increased to 20%.

In other words, in order to realize the commercial operation of the replacement power station, there must be enough electric vehicle scale support, which is simply impossible to do in the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles.

The above two major problems are no longer problems.

First of all, the overall situation of the power battery industry has been preliminarily determined.

The Ningde era is an absolute leader, occupying half of the domestic market and having a unified standard foundation. On the other hand, financial subsidies have been withdrawn, and the previous profit dispute problem has also been eliminated. The standardization of power battery packs will effectively promote the popularization of electric vehicles, which is in the interests of all parties, and a consensus has been formed at the industry level.

Nor is policy wavering.

In 2020, the Government Work Report included the substation into the scope of new infrastructure for the first time, and then frequently issued official documents to establish the status and development direction of the power exchange model. On November 1, 2021, GB/T40032-2021 "Electric Vehicle Replacement Safety Requirements" was officially implemented, which is the first basic universal national industry standard in the power exchange industry, which is interpreted by the market as the real inflection point of industrial development.

From the perspective of industrial economics, the penetration trajectory of a new product shows the characteristics of an S-shaped curve, according to the popularity process of Electric Vehicles in Norway, when the penetration rate crosses the 10% threshold, it will increase at a high slope. With this as a yardstick, the domestic electric vehicle market has entered a period of high-speed release.

As the most effective way to replenish energy, the outbreak of power exchange cannot be stopped.

Looking ahead, in the next few years, the entire industry is likely to move forward at a rate of annualized doubling.

According to data from Orient Securities, by 2025, the number of domestic power replacement models is expected to reach about 5 million; by 2030, this number is expected to be close to 40 million.

On this basis, by 2025, about 22,000 substations will be landed. At that time, the size of the entire equipment market will reach 70 billion, the operating market size is expected to reach 263.1 billion, and the CAGR will exceed 100% in 2021-2025.

The power exchange equipment will take the lead with the landing of the power station replacement plan, and when the popularity of the power exchange mode increases, the space for the power exchange operation market will gradually open.

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This article involves the content of listed companies, which is the author's personal analysis and judgment based on the information publicly disclosed by listed companies in accordance with their statutory obligations (including but not limited to temporary announcements, periodic reports and official interactive platforms, etc.); the information or opinions in this article do not constitute any investment or other business advice, and Market Value Watch does not assume any responsibility for any action arising from the adoption of this article.

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