News | cost reduction or breakthrough? Lithium battery recycling with a long way to go!

What is a lithium battery

Lithium batteries are batteries that are made of lithium metal or lithium alloy as positive or negative electrode materials, and use non-aqueous electrolyte solutions. The charging and discharging process of lithium batteries mainly relies on lithium ions (Li+) to move between the positive and negative electrodes, when charging, lithium ions are de-embedded from the positive electrode, embedded in the negative electrode through the electrolyte, and the negative electrode is in a lithium-rich state; when discharging, the opposite is true. Lithium-ion battery applications are mainly divided into power and non-power, lithium-ion battery applications include electric vehicles, power tools, etc.; non-power areas include consumer electronics and energy storage.

Photo: Xingxingcha Research Center

Analysis of the industrial chain of lithium battery industry

The lithium battery industry chain mainly includes four links: upstream raw material manufacturers and lithium battery equipment manufacturers, midstream battery manufacturers and downstream terminal applications. Upstream raw materials mainly include cathode materials, anode materials, diaphragms and electrolytes, lithium battery equipment including mixers, coating machines, dryers, roller presses, die-cutting/splitting presses, winding/laminating machines, liquid injection machines, chemical composition containers, etc.; downstream terminal applications include consumer electronics manufacturers, power vehicle manufacturers and energy storage companies.

Power lithium battery market

With the increase in certainty and the rapid increase in penetration rate of the new energy vehicle industry, the market size of lithium batteries as the main power is also continuing to increase. In 2019, overseas new energy vehicle sales reached more than 1 million, power battery installed capacity reached more than 50GWh, in China due to policy support and technological development, domestic energy vehicle sales reached more than 1.2 million, power battery installed capacity of more than 60GWh. From the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate at home and abroad is increasing, and the era of high growth of the lithium battery market has begun.

Strong demand and high production capacity mean that lithium batteries have great production and sales in China, and also mean that lithium batteries are under great pressure in recycling.

Recycling and utilization of lithium batteries

market

The relevant team designed a calculation model for the metal recovery market space of the future ternary battery and the cascade utilization and recovery market space of the lithium iron phosphate battery, and made assumptions and analysis, and the basic conclusions are as follows:

Since the metal price changes have a huge impact on the economics, market release and output value space of power battery recycling and cascade utilization, we have conducted a price sensitivity analysis of the metal recycling market space for ternary batteries and the recovery and cascade utilization market space of iron lithium batteries in the future, and made the following assumptions:

1) In order to measure the market space, we selected three different periods of metal prices for sensitivity measurement, divided into high price, low price and average price. Among them, the high price (2022.2.17) and the low price are evaluated and calculated using the historical price since 2014Q1.

2) When conducting sensitivity analysis, while changing the metal market price, the proportion of cathode material in ternary batteries and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery ladder recovery remain unchanged.

3) We assume that the price per watt-hour of lithium iron phosphate batteries will decrease from 2.71 yuan/Wh in 2014 to 0.55 yuan/Wh in 2025, of which the rate of reduction will gradually slow down in 21-25 years. The residual value price of the cascade utilization is divided into three grades: high (40%), medium (30%), and low (20%).

When lithium metal is at an average price, the lithium lithium iron phosphate battery lithium element recovery market space is expected to be 14.4 billion yuan in 2030, 4.8 billion yuan at low prices, and 24 billion yuan at high prices. From 2020 to 2030, the cumulative recycling market space of lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 57.9 billion yuan at an average price.

policy

In December 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of The Recycling and Utilization of Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Solicitation of Comments), which clarifies that automobile manufacturers bear the main responsibility for the recycling of power batteries. The Extended Producer Responsibility System (EPR) refers to extending the responsibility of the producer to the entire life cycle of the product, especially the recycling and recycling stage after the product consumption, requiring the producer to assume responsibility in the whole life cycle of the product, connecting production and recycling, and improving the recycling rate.

In July 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other seven departments jointly issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Pilot Work of Recycling and Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries", and decided to carry out pilot work on the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries in 17 regions such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Shanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangdong and China Tower, and determine the corresponding target tasks of each pilot area, which is conducive to the establishment of a relatively centralized and cross-regional linkage recovery system. With the introduction of relevant policies, the power battery recycling system will also be accelerated and improved. The development of the pilot work of power battery recycling marks that the mainland power battery recycling has entered a large-scale implementation stage.

In July 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Key Points for Work On Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization in 2020", requiring the promotion of the construction of a new energy vehicle power battery recycling system; carry out in-depth pilot work, accelerate the exploration and promotion of a market-oriented model of recycling and utilization with strong technical economy and environmental friendliness, and cultivate a number of backbone enterprises for the recycling and utilization of power batteries; study and formulate the "Management Measures for the Cascade Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries", establish a cascade utilization product evaluation mechanism; rely on " New energy vehicle national monitoring and power battery recycling traceability integrated management platform", improve laws and regulations, and urge enterprises to accelerate the performance of traceability and recycling responsibilities. The evaluation mechanism of the power battery recycling system and the improvement of laws and regulations indicate that the framework of the mainland power battery recycling system is becoming more and more mature.

Although the top-level design is gradually improving, the current power battery recycling is constrained by the following three problems, making it more difficult to carry out the policy:

1. The measurement standard of the residual value of the battery is difficult to estimate: the battery capacity of the power battery will gradually decay during the cycle charge and discharge, and when the attenuation is reduced to less than 80%, it will reach the state of decommissioning. At present, there are many definition standards for the health of the power battery SOH (State-of-health), including the definition of capacity decay, the definition of residual discharge, the definition of the number of remaining cycles, and the definition of internal resistance. Therefore, there are certain difficulties for policy makers to determine the residual value of power batteries.

2. Metal price fluctuations affect the economy of material recycling: the fluctuation of metal prices will ultimately determine the profit and loss of the power battery recycling market, and the metal price is affected by the comprehensive factors of resource supply, technological progress, and downstream market, there is a technical cycle, the production capacity cycle, so the metal price is the decisive factor driven by the market of power battery recycling, which affects the business model of the power battery and also affects the effectiveness of policy formulation and implementation.

3. Ladder utilization technology standards: an important way to recover lithium iron phosphate batteries is ladder utilization, ladder utilization methods, safety and other factors plague the formulation of standards, too high standards will cause the decline of the ladder utilization market, the standard is too low and is not conducive to the long-term development of the ladder utilization market.

technology

There are different participants and recycling paths in the recycling process of power batteries, which is mainly due to the differences in sales methods, use forms, and ownership ownership between different power batteries. At present, in the mainland, the recovery channels of power batteries mainly include small recycling companies, professional recycling companies, and government recycling centers. In recent years, in order to regulate the power battery recycling market, the mainland has successively introduced technical standards related to the dismantling and recycling of power batteries:

Referring to the battery recycling path of developed countries in Europe and the United States, power battery manufacturers often assume the main responsibility for battery recycling, and the electric vehicle manufacturers and battery rental companies in the participating entities play a role in cooperating with power battery manufacturers to recover. According to the difference in the main participants of the path of the power battery from the consumer to the power battery manufacturer, it can theoretically be divided into three recycling routes.

The first recycling path is the waste power battery through the electric vehicle dealer recycling; the second recycling path is through the battery rental company recycling, the waste power battery through the above two recycling paths finally flow to the power battery producer (some manufacturers can also form a joint manufacturer alliance) for recycling; the third recycling path Finally flows to the third-party recycling company recycling, but the third-party recycling company needs to rely on the self-established power battery recycling network.

Current situation and prospect of domestic lithium battery recycling

It is understood that the deadline is January 12, 2022. National relevant experience scope enterprises refer to enterprises with a registered capital of more than 20 million yuan in the national in-industry/existing enterprises whose experience scope includes power battery recycling. Legally qualified enterprises refer to enterprises published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of "New Energy Vehicle Waste Power Battery Comprehensive Utilization Industry Specification Conditions" and have echelon utilization and recycling qualifications.

In the case of the list of power lithium battery related enterprises that have been announced, there are more enterprises located in Guangdong Province, with 8 power lithium battery recycling enterprises entering the list, followed by 6 enterprises in the zhejiang list, followed by Jiangxi, Hunan and Anhui, each with 5 enterprises in the list. Judging from the recovery of major power lithium batteries, the mainland power lithium battery market is mainly distributed in the southern region of the mainland, and the better developed enterprises are mostly distributed in coastal provinces, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang and other regions.

Overall, the current mainland lithium battery recycling technology is relatively mature, but the compliance of enterprises is relatively small, the initial most of them are "speculative" consciousness with the majority of followers, I believe that with the country's governance, policy tilt, market growth and technology accumulation precipitation, the future will have more lithium battery recycling, processing enterprises stand out and join the lithium battery recycling army. At the same time, with the continuous progress of the scientific level, there will inevitably be more scholars to develop new technologies and equipment that allow us to discover and use more clean energy to replace lithium batteries.