Welcome to Chengwei International Observation, soon the first round of voting in the French presidential election will begin to vote, this year is also a big year of elections, you see the election of the President of South Korea, there is this Serbia and Hungary election, at the end of the year the United States will also hold midterm elections, of course, the General Election of the French President is very very important.
According to the calculations of all walks of life in the past, French President Macron was elected president 5 years ago as a dark horse, creating a miracle, he was not yet 40 years old at the time, but of course Macron was not from a plain background, people have had very good administrative experience before, so these 5 years in general Macron is doing a good job, especially the European Union today is facing a leaderless situation, you see the United Kingdom left the European Union, the Chancellor Merkel who ruled Germany for 16 years retired, so many people pin their hopes on Macron, I hope that Macron can take on the responsibility of the entire European Union in the future, and Macron himself feels that he has done a good job in the past 5 years.
So to win this presidential election, relatively speaking, it is relatively easy, he should be much luckier than his predecessor Sarkozy, Hollande, but over time, these two days Macron is slightly a little angry, because various polls show that the gap between him and the far-right Marina Le Pen is getting smaller and smaller, in the past Macron even thought that he was likely to directly get more than 50% of the vote in the first round of voting, re-elected president of France, now look at the first round of direct 50%, it is unlikely Macron can only hope that he will win the first place in the first round and Marina Le Pen second, but because Le Pen is the strength of the far right, so in the second round of the election when the two people are dueling, all the left-wing right-wing votes will converge on him, and he can once again stage the miracle of 5 years ago.
Why macron's election momentum last month was still very good, now it is a bit precarious, even the support rate between him and Le Pen has become closer and closer, the situation in Ukraine is a big variable, we have talked to you before, in today's whole Europe can issue a little speculation of the big country is probably France, you think the United Kingdom is basically the United States' small follow-up, the United States put forward any policy The United Kingdom will all agree, and Germany has not had the courage to fight with the United States since Merkel's retirement When Merkel was in power, many policies of the United States could not be pushed down, and even Nord Stream II was under the strong pressure of Merkel, the United States gave up sanctions to let Nord Stream II be built, and the newly appointed German chancellor obviously did not have Merkel's foundation and courage, so on many issues can only follow the United States, at this critical moment the Ukrainian crisis broke out, Germany completely chose to follow the United States.
But French President Macron is not the same, so far Macron is probably the only leader in the Western world, who can directly talk to Putin, after the United States proposed various economic sanctions, Russia's means, France on the one hand is to follow, on the other hand, France still has to communicate with Russia, to see if it is possible to propose a solution to the crisis, but for many French, they have become more and more dissatisfied with the United States, the French people are very proud in their bones, France believes that he is the leader of the European Union, he is the most important country on the European continent, but now he has to rely on the United States for a lot of foreign policy, which makes the French feel very unhappy.
Especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the United States led the West to introduce a lot of sanctions, on the one hand, these economic sanctions, did not hit Russia hard, forced Russia to withdraw troops, on the other hand, it made the economies of Western European countries more and more unsmooth, you want to hit Russia and not let people sell oil, resulting in soaring international oil prices, leading to inflation throughout Europe.
And Europe has become a war-torn place, a lot of money fled Europe to escape to where, all fled to the United States, the United States can also use high prices to sell their own energy to European countries, so many people say that this crisis is really unlucky is the European countries, especially how the Ukraine crisis was caused, Russia said very clearly, because Ukraine wants to join NATO, the United States wants to deploy weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine, so that Russia feels threatened, and even now there are many Germans. Former Chancellor Merkel, who accused them, said, In the Merkel era, you were too weak to Russia, you did not let Ukraine enter NATO, which led to today's situation, to be honest, if Merkel had not stopped Ukraine from entering, then maybe this crisis would have broken out long ago.
And for the French, the French do not want to join NATO, in history France has withdrawn from NATO, the French also feel that I stay in such a, American-led military institution, there is no good for me, why should I give my national defense strength to the United States leadership, Macron has repeatedly proposed that NATO has been brain dead, Europe should form its own European coalition.
And everyone remembers that last year, in order to make two money, the United States cut off the big order of submarines that France and Australia had already negotiated, and the United States told Australia that you bought submarines with me, France sold you conventional submarines, and I sold you nuclear-powered submarines.
At that time, after learning this news, the French government and the opposition were furious, and many people said that we are not allies with the United States? Why do they specifically put knives behind their backs, especially when it comes to this election, the candidates from all sides of the left, center, and right have to put forward their own policy guidelines.
Today, the French leftist candidate, Mélang-šin, said That France should withdraw from NATO, and The French far-right candidate, Marina Le Pen, also said that France should withdraw from NATO.
For the French, we stay in such a military organization, both under the leadership of the United States, but also face the threat of war, and even one day may send children to fight with Russia, why France and Russia do not have much grudge, and today's French President Macron, he certainly can not propose to withdraw from the default, in such a Western world, the key to joint sanctions against Russia, of course, he can not suddenly retreat, which makes many French people, for Macron's rule, there are micro-words, Through this Ukrainian crisis, I think really many Europeans must reflect on whether under the leadership of the United States, European countries can develop better?