Author: Chopper Knife
On March 28, Xiaopeng Automobile released the "Fourth Quarter and Annual Financial Report of 2021". Judging from the data, in the past year, its sales volume ranked first in the list of new car-making forces. But the problem is that Xiaopeng also ranks first in the loss list with a loss of 4.863 billion yuan.
In addition to sales, Xiaopeng's other financial indicators such as gross profit margin are also at the bottom of "Wei Xiaoli", what is the reason for this? Further, what is the sustainability of Xiaopeng Motors' business conditions and the sustainability of this business method?
01
If you squeeze out the bubble in the earnings report
What is the quality of Xiaopeng's operation?
For Xiaopeng, the most proud thing is that it will sell nearly 100,000 vehicles in 2021. Compared with THE 91429 and 90491 vehicles of Weilai and Ideal, Xiaopeng ranked first with a score of 98155 vehicles. However, digging deep into the financial report can be found that the car sells more, the revenue may not be more, and even the loss may be further expanded. As mentioned earlier, the loss of Xiaopeng Automobile in 2021 is also the highest.
Let's look at the revenue first. In 2021, the revenue of WEILAI and Ideal was 36.14 billion yuan and 27.01 billion yuan respectively, while Xiaopeng was 20.99 billion yuan, which belonged to the bottom one. At this time, if you combine revenue and sales data, you can find that the more Xiaopeng sells, the greater the loss. In other words, there is a negative correlation between Xiaopeng's sales volume and revenue.
In this regard, comparing the loss data, we will find that the negative correlation is more obvious.
From the data point of view, last year, the net losses of Weilai and Ideal were 4.016 billion yuan and 320 million yuan respectively, but the net loss of Xiaopeng was as high as 4.86 billion yuan. In particular, It is worth noting that Xiaopeng's net loss has expanded by 78% year-on-year.
According to this, simply calculated by dividing the annual net loss by the annual delivery volume, it can be seen that in 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile will lose about 49,500 yuan for every car sold.
Then, it can be inferred that Xiaopeng's sales may be the result of burning money for replacement. In fact, the new forces of car manufacturing burn money to replace sales is a tacit thing. From the fact that the more cars are sold, the more losses it means, it can be seen that the overall trend of the industry "selling cars at a loss" has not changed. In this sense, the gold content of the number one sales name created by Xiaopeng has a lot of water.
More importantly, this reflects two fatal problems: first, the new energy car industry as a whole has not come out of the profit predicament, and second, Xiaopeng Automobile's own interest rate level is even more worrying.
The so-called profit dilemma means that in the long run, if the sales volume of the car does not increase, then the cost of building the car is difficult to apportion, and the loss will be further expanded at this time.
This makes it necessary for car companies to expand production and dilute costs in this process; at the same time, improve technology, continuously reduce costs, and ultimately achieve full profitability. Before making a profit, there may be a lack of income at any time, and the car company collapses.
As a common problem, the profit dilemma tests the sustainable operation ability of car companies.
For Xiaopeng Motors, the reason why it is in a more worrying situation is because its self-gross profit margin is lower.
The financial report shows that compared with the gross profit margin of 21.3% and 18.9% of Ideal and Weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile is only 12.5%. In the third quarter of 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile's gross profit margin reached the highest in the whole year, at 14.4%. However, due to the impact of rising raw material costs, it fell back to 10.9% in the fourth quarter.
This means that Xiaopeng Automobile needs to burn more money to get out of the profit predicament. In this case, the cost pressure of Xiaopeng Automobile has become greater, the burning cycle has become longer, and the sustainability requirements have become more difficult. To put it bluntly, the odds of a possible collapse have become greater.
02
Shift from "low interest rates" to price increases
Can Xiaopeng welcome sales spring again?
In the earnings call, He Xiaopeng said that the current gross profit margin should be more than doubled, that is, more than 25%. Previously, on March 21, Xiaopeng announced a price increase of 10,100 to 20,000 yuan.
It is worth noting that at the above-mentioned meeting, He Xiaopeng also said that the price increase did not affect sales. It can be seen that Xiaopeng is using price increases as a way to improve its own gross profit margin.
From the perspective of the logic of profit dilemma, Xiaopeng's move is obviously to improve the level of self-interest rates with price increases, and then save costs, and then use it to expand production, and finally shorten the cycle required to achieve full profitability.
The problem is that all this is premised on the assumption that sales will not be affected after the price increase. However, from the actual situation, the sales of Xiaopeng Automobile seem to be more likely to be affected.
First of all, the price increase is large, and it is basically borne by consumers. Since March 21, xiaopeng motors' three main models have been listed in price increases. For the market that is accustomed to the relatively "people-friendly" price of Xiaopeng Motors, consumers are more sensitive to prices, and once the price rises, it will almost inevitably affect the desire to buy. Under these conditions, it is obviously more difficult to get the desired sales volume.
Secondly, the implementation of the subsidy policy is facing the end, which will make the burden on consumers significantly increase again.
In accordance with the relevant provisions of the subsidy policy, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and at the same time, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be officially terminated by December 31, 2022. At this time, coupled with the price increase of Xiaopeng Automobile itself, will it not affect the market?
Finally, some of Xiaopeng's behaviors are also dissolving their brand appeal. Many car owners have exposed that Xiaopeng Motors is suspected of secretly tampering with the free rescue agreement.
After modification, the content of the previous agreement with unlimited mileage and unlimited number of times has been deleted; at the same time, an additional clause has been added to provide free trailer rescue services due to failures caused by product quality problems; finally, the instructions for trailers to the supercharging station have been deleted, that is, the situation that needs rescue due to lack of electricity is no longer within the responsibility of Xiaopeng Motors.
For consumers who come to buy vehicles for the Xiaopeng Automobile brand, this can cause great malice. Giving up the influence of the brand, compared with the international counterpart Tesla and domestic counterparts such as Weilai Ideal, how big are the highlights of Xiaopeng Automobile's products? In this case, whether Xiaopeng Automobile can maintain sales is worrying, let alone further.
That is to say, Xiaopeng wants to improve the level of self-interest rates with price increases, and then save costs, and then use it to expand production, and finally shorten the cycle required to achieve full profitability, which is difficult to achieve.
In fact, in addition to the sales problem, Xiaopeng Automobile is also facing production capacity problems. That is to say, if consumers are still willing to spend money on Xiaopeng Automobile, It is difficult for Xiaopeng Automobile to provide products.
For Xiaopeng Motors, maintaining the mass production level to meet the current market demand is already stretched. According to media reports, after a consumer has booked a car, the salesman promises to pick up the car for a maximum of one and a half to two months. But Xiaopeng Motors has dragged on and on. In the end, more than 4 months later, Xiaopeng Automobile not only still did not deliver the car, but also provided a delivery time that was far away.
In this regard, Xiaopeng said: "Due to the impact of the epidemic, the industry is facing an extreme shortage of supply of major components including lithium iron phosphate batteries, which has also brought great uncertainty to the production of Xiaopeng P5 460 models, resulting in 460 model orders that cannot be delivered in time within the next timed expected delivery cycle, for which we apologize." ”
Since the price increase will not help to solve the fundamental profit problem, it can only prove that Xiaopeng's actual situation may have exceeded the expectations of the outside world. In other words, perhaps Xiaopeng urgently needs to tide over the difficulties with the immediate benefits gained from the price increase.
03
epilogue
All in all, whether it can get out of the fundamental profit dilemma is only the problem of Xiaopeng Automobile. For consumers, the stakes are not only price issues, but also safety issues. For example, brake failure, such as spontaneous combustion of the car, and so on. You know, on the day of the release of Xiaopeng Automobile's financial report, a Xiaopeng G3 caught fire in Shenzhen's Longhua District. If you count, this is by no means just a special case or an isolated case.
In December 2019, a Xiaopeng G3 in Guangzhou spontaneously combusted; in August 2020, another Xiaopeng G3 had a smoke and fire; by April 2021, there was still a Xiaopeng G3 spontaneously combusting during charging next to the charging pile.
This situation has also attracted the attention of relevant departments, and in January 2021, the State Administration of Market Supervision issued the "Notice on the Recall of Some Xiaopeng G3 Electric Vehicles". But today, in 2022, a similar situation is happening again. It can be seen that Xiaopeng still needs to redouble his efforts.