Wang Ye said financial news: the situation may be unexpected!
Just on Monday (4th), the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) predicted that in 2022, although Western countries will increase regulations, Russia's international trade surplus may hit a record high, eventually reaching $200-300 billion.
In this regard, RBC analysts commented that there are two main reasons for this, specifically:
1) a significant increase in the value of energy exports;
2) Imports or reduction of goods by 50%.
RBC also cited data from the International Finance Association (IIF) as showing that in 2022, confidence remains high on the key drivers of Russia's balance of payments surplus (energy exports).
It is worth mentioning that just last week, Bloomberg also analyzed and commented that in 2022, Russia's energy export revenue is expected to reach $321 billion, an increase of more than one-third over last year.
As we all know, in the context of Western sanctions, Russia has provided huge discounts in order to export oil, but in view of the rise in international oil prices, this still allows Russia to make a lot of money.
For example, just last week, russia's finance ministry said that in March, the average oil price level of Russian Ural oil exceeded $89 per barrel, up 40% year-on-year.
At the same time, according to the latest data from the International Finance Association (IIF), the number of tankers berthed in Russian ports this year waiting to depart is only slightly lower than in the same period in previous years.
Data from TankerTrackers, a company that tracks the movement of oil tankers around the world, also shows that Russia still exports about 3 million barrels of oil a day by sea, and that these shipments are very transparent.
What do you think about that? What do you think will be the situation of Russian foreign trade this year?
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