Wang Ye said financial news: On Monday (4th), in the annual shareholder letter, Jamie Dimon, ceo of JP Morgan, the largest bank in the United States, was talking about major issues such as the US economic recovery, high inflation and the Fed's interest rate hikes, as well as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In the next few decades, there are three things that could reshape the global economy, including:
1) The U.S. economy has rebounded from the epidemic;
2) high inflation and concomitant high interest rates;
3) Conflicts and humanitarian crises between Russia and Ukraine.
In the banker's view, during the epidemic, the United States will make a big effort to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve may need to accelerate interest rate hikes, in addition, the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine and western regulations, the above events may increase the risks to the future economy.
Despite this, Dimon still believes that the US economy is still on the recovery track, and the US economic prosperity will easily continue into 2023.
In Dimon's view, the slightest situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is to slow down the pace of global economic recovery, but how the final result will develop, the impact on the supply chain, especially the energy supply, various uncertainties may easily worsen the situation.
"We (JPMorgan) are not worried about a direct exposure to Russia, but we could face a loss of about $1 billion as a result," Dimon said. ”
In addition, JPMorgan economists also expect that in 2022, the EUROZONE, which is highly dependent on Russia's energy supply, may only grow by 2% gdp, compared with the previous forecast of 4.5%.
As for the United States, JPMorgan Chase predicts that in 2022, the US GDP growth rate may be 2.5%.
Dimon said that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the Fed and the US government were right to make a big move to support the economy, and these decisions worked, but quantitative easing (QE) and fiscal stimulus may be too much and last too long.
Finally, the JPMorgan CEO also warned that the stronger the U.S. economic recovery, the higher the subsequent level of interest rates (which may be much higher than market expectations), accompanied by a larger quantitative tightening.
Inflation will eventually fall back, too. While there will be market turbulence in this process, as long as it does not jeopardize the real economy, these disturbances are not to be feared," Dimon finally added.
What do you think about that? What do you think will happen to the U.S. and European economies in 2022?
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