iPhone
The advent of smartphones has undoubtedly ushered in a new era, with the popularity and development of smart phones, the center of the Internet has gradually shifted from the personal computer side to the mobile end. In this development process, Apple has undoubtedly become the biggest winner, not only becoming the world's first company with a market value of more than $2 trillion, but also laying out a huge industrial chain with the iPhone, becoming the brightest star in the technology industry.
But now that Apple and the iPhone are in full swing, some people stand up against it, believing that smartphones represented by the iPhone are only a few years away, and then they will be replaced by other technologies. The man who said this was also a legend of a generation — he was Microsoft founder Bill Gates.
Bill Gates said smartphones will soon be replaced
In an interview in March 2022, Bill Gates made the same point — 73 years have passed since the start of mobile telephone services in 1949. There is no doubt that mobile communication technology has made great progress, and a large number of exciting advances and products have emerged. But just like the classic models and manufacturers in the past, Apple and the iPhone are also facing the crisis of falling behind.
There is no doubt that the iPhone is the pioneer of the smartphone era, but 15 years have passed since the launch of the first generation of the iPhone in 2007, and in the past 15 years, smartphones have experienced rapid development - full screen, 5nm chips, 1TB storage space and other unimaginable technologies and features have all become a reality.
However, as the chip process and technological innovation are gradually approaching the limit, the development of smart phones has also fallen into a bottleneck, and Bill Gates is also based on this judgment that smart phones will be replaced by other technologies in a few years, and the iPhone and Apple will also become the victims of new technologies and fall behind.
Bill Gates's conclusion that Apple fell behind is not alarmist, as a consumer electronics manufacturer, Apple is undoubtedly very successful, with the iPhone's best-selling is to win more than 80% of the profits in the field of smartphones. But the so-called prosperity must be reversed, and behind the huge profits of the iPhone is a huge crisis hidden by Apple.
Apple's business share
In Apple's total business, iPhone sales accounted for 57.79%, followed by 15.75% from software service businesses such as The AppStore, and the third was 11.86% from wearable and home accessories businesses such as iWatch and Apple Tv. Taken together, it can be seen that the iPhone and various accessories based on the iPhone account for the vast majority of Apple's revenue and have become the absolute lifeblood of Apple.
Once there is a new technology that subverts smartphones, then the technology kingdom that Apple has built will collapse in an instant. On the contrary, Microsoft's revenue share is much healthier - cloud computing business accounted for 38%, productivity and business processes (including Office, etc.) accounted for 33%, personal computing business (Windows, Xbox) accounted for 29%, you can see that Microsoft has got rid of the drawbacks of relying too much on Windows business in the past, its market value has also exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and surpassed Apple to become the world's highest market capitalization company.
Bill gates
As Moore's Law approaches the limit, the chip will break through advanced processes such as 3nm for a longer and longer time; at the same time, because it is difficult to further develop technologies such as batteries and screens, the gap between smartphones will be further reduced, and it will be difficult for Apple to continue to maintain its profit share of more than 80% in the field of smartphones. Once the iPhone sales decline, followed by the decline of related products such as iWatch and AirPods, which eventually led to the decline of the entire business. The drawbacks of over-reliance on the iPhone have been revealed, but Apple and Cook have never been able to find other new profit growth points, which also lays hidden dangers.
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