Automobile OEM or need "double qualification", new car companies usher in the "darkest moment"?

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The OEM model, which is regarded as fragrant and delicious by the new car-making forces, may usher in stricter supervision.

A few days ago, the "Auto Industry and Economic Network" invited a source who "participated in the internal meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology" and said that the OEM policy will change from a single qualification requirement in the past to a double qualification requirement, that is, not only the OEM enterprise needs to have production qualifications, but also the entrusting party.

01

The threshold of the OEM mode may be raised

"You see the recent application for OEM enterprises, almost no can pass the approval", according to the source, "resource integration is the core, strict management of the FOUNDRY process is an inevitable process, such as a manufacturer with production qualifications to accept the entrusted production of many new car companies, this party will have to assume unlimited responsibility, if not managed, then the final consequences are immeasurable." ”

The rise of the OEM model began in 2018, when the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Administrative Measures for Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Access. It clearly encourages R&D and production capacity cooperation between road motor vehicle manufacturers, and allows road motor vehicle manufacturers that meet the specified conditions to entrust processing and production.

But now, "[new car makers] are too enthusiastic to enter, so the threshold needs to be raised to hinder the development of some new car players." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, told the Wisdom Driving Workshop.

However, Zhang Junyi, a managing partner of Oliver Wilver Consulting, told the Intelligent Driving Workshop that if the client is really required according to the qualification process for the manufacture of new new energy vehicles, it will be more challenging, because all these qualifications are supported by factories and research and development departments, including prototypes, and the approval process cycle is quite long, involving a lot of departments.

According to the "Auto Industry and Economic Network", the "dual qualification" policy "will be released in the near future".

On the other hand, the mainland automotive industry has serious overcapacity, and if the resources of some marginal traditional car companies are not utilized, it is a great waste of resources. From this point of view, the qualification threshold of the OEM model does not seem to need to be so high.

Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, told the Intelligent Driving Research Institute that the client generally does not have qualifications to need OEM, if it is required to have qualifications, it may build its own factory, or acquire factories and qualifications, so "the threshold for OEM cannot be too high."

He pointed out that the original intention of "double qualification" is not to let enterprises produce cars casually, but the actual significance is not great. Zhang Xiang pointed out that the United States does not require this qualification, but "wide in and strict out", that is, after the quality of the product is recalled, the company will be fined a huge amount, or even to bankruptcy. The mainland is "strict in and wide out", and the qualification review is strict, but the fines and rectification efforts are smaller if there is a problem.

Simply put, the policy does not seem to achieve the original intent of its formulation.

02

FOUNDRIES are becoming stricter, where to go from here to a large number of vacant production capacity?

According to the statistics of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, by the end of 2021, the total production capacity of passenger cars in the country will be 40.89 million units, and the capacity utilization rate will be 52.47%, which is in the range of serious overcapacity.

According to the statistics of the Association, there are 86 companies with sales in 2021. The 16 companies with sales of more than 600,000 vehicles sold a total of 16.6106 million units, accounting for 77.42% of the total sales, and a total production capacity of 20.5 million units, accounting for 55% of the total production capacity. The average capacity utilization rate of these 16 enterprises is 81.03%, which is in a reasonable range.

There are 22 companies with annual sales of more than 200,000 vehicles, accounting for 88.86% of total sales, leaving less than 13% of the market share for other 64 companies.

There are 29 companies that sell less than 10,000 units, and the production capacity of these companies accounts for 13% of the total, while sales account for only 0.46% of the total, and the average capacity utilization rate is only 2.02%.

Not only that, in the case of overall overcapacity of passenger cars, 10.46 million units of production capacity will be completed and put into operation by enterprises that already have production qualifications. In 2021, 3.326 million new energy passenger cars will be sold, while the dedicated production capacity of new energy passenger cars has reached 5.695 million units, and the capacity utilization rate is 58.4%.

Even if you don't count the production capacity of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles that can be produced in a common line, the current special production capacity of new energy vehicles has been seriously excessive. Raising the threshold of the foundry model to such a high level may lead to further overcapacity and waste.

In the view of Zhang Junyi, managing partner of Oliver Ypresity Consulting, the system, function and manufacturing process of internal combustion locomotive factories and new energy vehicle factories are different, and the technology of the old factory that has been idle for many years will lag behind, and the cost of transformation and upgrading will even exceed that of a new factory. This will make some companies prefer to build new factories rather than renovate old ones.

At present, some traditional car companies have given fixed assets such as idle land and factories to emerging enterprises, such as the Hyundai first factory in Beijing to give the ideal car, and the second factory is also rumored to give xiaomi.

Zhang Junyi pointed out that the use of idle production capacity in various places can in fact alleviate the government debt and resource waste of local governments, and emerging companies are the "white knights" who revitalize zombie assets. If there is a requirement for industrial qualifications, additional investment is required.

Moreover, when building factories to increase fixed capital investment, and back-end financing is not so easy, "this is a higher and higher challenge for new enterprises to enter the threshold, and the demand for funds will be relatively large."

In this regard, Zhang Junyi suggested that on the one hand, the idle production capacity should be utilized to enhance employment and prevent local problems, and on the other hand, the local government should also provide sufficient financing support for new enterprises to receive the purchase qualifications of old factories.

Regardless of whether the final "double qualification" policy is landed or not, it is foreseeable that China's new energy vehicle industry has gradually entered the stage of checking for defects and filling in gaps and refining management after several years of extensive development.