(Translator's note: The author of this article is B/R journalist Greg Swartz, and the views expressed in this article do not represent the views of the translator.) The time in the text is all US time, and the data in the text is as of March 15, Beijing time. ）
While it's a joy for every NBA team to break into the playoffs, each team has at least one opponent they want to avoid in the playoffs.
This season in particular, the strength of some "low seeded" teams should not be underestimated, and they are likely to cause huge trouble for opponents in the first round of the series. The Nets could end the regular season as the Eighth Seed in the East, and if New York can officially lift the vaccine injunction, the Nets led by Durant, Irving and Simmons will set off a storm in the East. Looking to the West, no "high-seeded" team wants to hit the Clippers, after all, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are likely to return in the playoffs.
In addition, taking into account the player alignment, the team's strengths and weaknesses, and emotional factors, we also listed other opponents who are least willing to be encountered.
Since teams entering the playoffs (and the playoffs) are not finalized until weeks later, here we will analyze the 16 playoff teams predicted by FiveThirtyEight and analyze their least willing opponents.
Eastern Chapter
First in the East: Miami Heat
The last opponent to meet: the Boston Celtics
Regular season fixture record this season: 0 wins, 2 losses
Key question: Three-pointer
As the only Eastern Conference team that has not been beaten by the Heat this season, the Celtics are a tough "hard bone" for the current top seed in the East.
Over the past three months, the Celtics have led the league in average net wins per game, thanks to an elite-level defense represented by Derrick White.
Especially for a team like the Heat, which has three-pointers as its main offensive means, this is a serious challenge .[ The Heat have the league's first three-point shooting percentage (37.5 percent) and seventh-highest average three-point shooting per game (13.3) this season. The Heat needed outside attacks from Kyle Lowry, Taylor Hiro, Duncan Robinson, Maxell Struss and PJ Tucker to help Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo create the offensive space they needed and assist their teammates in the air cut, thus maintaining a balance between the interior and exterior offense.
However, the Celtics are the best team in the Eastern Conference to defend the three-point defense this season. They limited their opponents' three-point shooting to 33.6 percent, second in the league, behind the Suns. White, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown are all excellent outside defenders who are able to limit the Heat's three-point shooter base very well.
Second in the East: Philadelphia 76ers
The last opponent to meet: the Brooklyn Nets
Regular season fixture record this season: 1 win, 3 losses
Key question: The Nets' "revenge" against James Harden
Honestly, it's a playoff showdown that all fans are looking forward to. The recent encounter between these two teams has made us feel the excitement of a seven-game series in advance, not only do we have superstars on both sides, but the emotional factors also add a wonderful to the game.
While Harden has played very well in several games since he first traded with the Nets to the 76ers (averaging 22.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 11.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 44.4 percent three-point shooting), he struggled in his first game against his old club.
Despite playing at home, he scored only 11 points on 3-of-17 shooting and 10 two-pointers. If the two teams meet in the playoffs, the 76ers could make three trips to Brooklyn, which is not good news for the star guard.
But it should also be noted that although the Nets beat the 76ers 129-100 in the Game of March 10, proving that they can also beat their opponents without Ben Simmons, if he appears at home for the Nets for the Nets (in the playoffs), he will only get worse treatment than Harden (in Brooklyn).
As part of the Harden & Simmons deal, Seth Curry and Andre Drummond will also be more motivated to help the team want to beat their old clubs.
While it will be a "nightmare" playoff showdown for Simmons, they are also reluctant to touch the Nets from a 76er perspective.
Third in the East: Milwaukee Bucks
The most reluctant opponent: the Toronto Raptors
Regular season fixture record: 0 wins, 3 losses
Key issue: Excellent forward defense limits the alphabet brother
The Heat and Nets are also obvious opponents the Bucks don't want to meet in the playoffs, but if the Raptors play against the Bucks in the first round, it's enough for the Bucks to "drink a pot."
This season's regular season faced the Raptors, the Bucks lost three games. Although Alphabet Brother only played one of them, they still lost to their opponents in that game, which deserved their attention.
Pascal Siakam and OG-Anunoby are both comparable to the alphabet brother in terms of height and athleticism, which will cause him some trouble. If the two teams meet in the playoffs, their rotational defense won't give Alphabet Brother a wide view in the box. In the Jan. 15 loss to the Raptors, the Bucks scored just 96 points. Alphabet Brother shot only 35.3 percent of the 17 shots, the worst single-game shooting percentage of his entire season. Chris Middleton was even more subdued, shooting just 3-of-12 from the field and shooting just 25 percent from the field.
You could argue that the loss was due to Juul Holliday's absence, but the Raptors also lack Scotty Barnes (another 6-foot-9 player who can cause trouble for Alphabet Brother and Middleton) and Gary Trent Jr.
Almost no one thinks the Bucks will lose the series, but if they have to play 6 or 7 games against the Raptors in the first round, it will undoubtedly be a "nightmare" for the defending champions.
Fourth in the East: Boston Celtics
The least willing opponent to meet: the Chicago Bulls
Regular season fixture record: 1 win, 1 loss
Key issue: The Bulls' unsolvable mid-range shots
While we haven't seen these two teams face each other in almost two months, we believe the Celtics probably won't want to play the Bulls anytime soon.
While the Celtics have an elite level of defense, the Bulls happen to have players who attack their weaknesses.
The Celtics' top three-point defense would pose a threat to teams like the Heat that have the top three-point shooting percentages. But the Bulls' main lethal weapon comes from mid-range shooting, which is exactly what MVP candidate DeMar DeRozan has done this season.
The Bulls are the league's highest average mid-range hits per game (8.5) and 44.5 percent shooting (behind the Nets). The Celtics didn't do a good job of shooting from mid-range defensively, averaging 13.7 shots per game (the second most in the league) and 5.3 hits (the fifth-most in the league) from mid-range. Smart and White were able to cut off offensive points on the perimeter, and R-Williams was primarily responsible for guarding the rim, so the Bulls had a chance to find a comfortable offensive area for DeRozan between the three-point line and the box.
In the first two games of the season against the Celtics, DeRozan averaged 30 points per game and shot 57.5 percent from the field. When the opponent's best defensive players basically ignore the defense against the mid-range, then even the best three-point defense will not play much role.
On the Celtic side, Jason Tatum has only shot 8-of-22 (36.4 percent) and 8-of-24 (33.3 percent) in both games against the Bulls this season. In one of the games, the Celtics narrowly won 114-112, but neither Zach Lavin nor Ronzo Ball played that game.
If the Bulls are met, the Celtics' playoff trip could end early.
Fifth in the East: Chicago Bulls
The last opponent to meet: the Miami Heat
Key issue: The Heat's extensive playoff experience
With the exception of DeRozan, the bulls' other players have almost no playoff experience. If the playoffs meet the veteran-gathered Heat, then that (lack of playoff experience) could put them at a disadvantage.
Butler, Lowry, and Tucker have played in 250 playoff games combined, with Tucker and Lowry winning championships in 2021 and 2019, respectively. Butler and Adebayor also led the Heat to the Finals in 2020.
Heat coach Eric Spollstra also has five NBA Finals coaching experience, leading the Heat to an impressive playoff record of 85 wins and 58 losses. His playoff win rate (59.4 percent) is even higher than his regular season win rate (59.3 percent).
It will be a tough series for the Bulls players who are playing in the playoffs for the first time.
Butler could score points by back-to-back singles deRozan, and the Bulls didn't have bench players to match Hiro's offensive firepower.
The Bulls should be hoping to meet another playoff "rookie" team in the first round— the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Sixth in the East: Cleveland Cavaliers
Regular season fixture record: 1 win, 2 losses
Key issue: Lack of ball handlers in line with Smart and White
The light of the Cavaliers' fantasy season quickly dimmed as they have only achieved a record of 3 wins and 8 losses in the last 11 games.
One reason is that they lack a good playmaker who can pass the ball to the luxurious frontcourt composed of Jarrett Allen (currently missing from a broken finger), Evan Mobley, Laurie Markkanen and Kevin Love.
Dalius Garland has been fantastic this season, but he has been plagued by back injuries in recent months. The Cavaliers' current problem is that no one but Garland is able to dribble and pass the ball. Carris LeVert has only played four games for the Cavaliers after trading from the Pacers, and has missed out due to a foot injury (returned from the match against the Clippers on March 15, Beijing time). The 35-year-old Rajon Rondo has been in somewhat sour form this season and has been sidelined for some time with an injury (toe injury). Previously, due to knee injuries from Colin Sexton and Ricky Rubio (who was sent to the Pacers before the trade deadline), the Cavaliers had to have Brandon Goodwin play five games as the starter.
If the Cavaliers were to run into the Celtics, who were well defensively on the perimeter in the first round of the playoffs, it would be difficult for them to win with only one reliable ball-handling player from Garland.
Smart and White's defense can cause great trouble for the opposing point guard, forcing them to play the ball and letting others create their own offensive opportunities.
While the Cavaliers' defense should also be able to withstand Celtic offense, it may not be easy for the Cavaliers to distinguish easily.
Seventh in the East: Toronto Raptors
The least willing opponent to meet: the Philadelphia 76ers
Key question: Joel Embiid
The Raptors haven't played against the current 76ers since Harden joined, but Harden isn't the one they're most worried about.
Although the Raptors have a large number of frontcourt players who are around 6 feet 9, they will inevitably fall behind when they encounter a big center who is 7 feet tall and weighs 280 pounds. Embiid can use his height, strength advantages, coupled with excellent low footing, to easily "ravage" defenders who are shorter than him.
Embiid has played just one game against the Raptors this season, shooting 11-of-16 (68.8 percent) and 12-of-14 from the free throw line (85.7 percent) for 36 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks.
Siakam, Ken Birch, Thaddeus Young and Chris Boucher can take turns defending Embiid, but it takes their combined efforts for the defense to work. No matter how he packs Embiid, he can pass the ball to Harden or Thales Maxi, and they will "punish" the defense with excellent three-point or breakthrough ability.
The Raptors perform much better against shorter, faster opponents. But if they meet Embiid (the leading 76ers), the latter is likely to usher in a "give and take" series.
Eighth in the East: Brooklyn Nets
Regular season fixture record: 2 wins, 2 losses
Main problem: Irving can't play away games
Under the current vaccine rules, Irving just can't play at home. But if the Nets hit the Raptors in the playoffs, Irving won't even be able to play in the road.
Ben Simmons is still undecided, and if Irving can't play, it will be a nightmare for the Nets. It's not entirely impossible for Durant to lead the team to win a series without the other two giants, but it's too much for Durant, not to mention that he has been absent for a long time this season due to a sprain of the medial collateral ligament.