Data doesn't lie|How fierce are the hot four madness? Jokic 40+ points, Nuggets 0-3

On June 5, Beijing time, the Heat defeated the Nuggets 111-108 on the road, making it 1-1 on aggregate. The Heat broke out again in the fourth quarter, turning into the "Hot Four Madness" and turning the Nuggets around. Jokic scored 41 points, and the data shows that in this year's playoffs, Jokic scored 40+ in 3 games, the Nuggets lost them all. In this issue of "Data Don't Lie", let's talk about these two topics: How fierce are the hot four madness? Jokic high score, what Nuggets lost?

1. How fierce is the hot four?

When the Heat fought back in the fourth quarter, I don't know how many fans smelled the familiar smell. The Heat were too good at playing the fourth quarter, and they performed far better in the fourth quarter than other playoff teams.

Let's take a look at the fourth quarter data comparison of the G2 finals. The Nuggets scored 25 points in the fourth quarter, shooting 56.2%, 42.9% from three-point range and 100% from the free-throw line, in other words, the Nuggets had shot 180 clubs in the fourth quarter, but they lost to the Heat by 11 points in a single quarter.

What is this section of the Heat going to look like? Shooting 11 of 16 from the field for 68.8 percent shooting, 5 of 9 from three-point range for 55.6 percent and 9 of 10 from the field from the field for 90 percent from the field. That's the third-highest shooting percentage in the fourth quarter of the Finals in the last 25 years. What's even more frightening is the Heat outbreak, which is becoming their norm.

In this year's playoffs, how efficient was the Heat's offense and defense in the fourth quarter? Offensive efficiency of 119.0, ranking second among the 16 playoff teams, behind the Clippers, who were out in the first round, and defensive efficiency of 101.1, ranking first among 16 playoff teams. Net efficiency of 17.9, that is, 17.9 points to win opponents in the last 100 rounds, this data is not only the first, but also far ahead, the second-ranked Lakers, the final net efficiency is 8.7, almost half of the Heat.

The Heat's ability to turn over is also shockingly powerful. The data shows that the Heat in the 2023 playoffs have completed a reversal of at least 10 points behind seven times, and are currently tied for first place in the past 25 years. Tied with them are the championship Warriors in 2022, as well as the Heat in 2012 and the Heat in 2011. In the Finals G2, the Heat trailed by up to 15 points, but that didn't bother them, and the Heat once again staged a last-quarter turnaround.

2. Jokic played 3 playoff games of 40+, and the Nuggets lost them all

In terms of Jokic's personal performance in G2 alone, he played well, shooting 16-of-28 from the field, 2-of-5 from three-point range, 7-of-8 from the free throw line, and had 41 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists. This is Jokic's third 40+ points in the playoffs this season, but the Nuggets have lost all three games. You know, so far, the Nuggets have only lost four games in the playoffs. The other two games Jokic lost by 40+ points, G4 against the Timberwolves and G4 against the Suns, with Jokic scoring 43 points in one game and 53 points in the other.

Before the G2 match, official website reporter Brian Martin mentioned the topic of "choosing Jokic's two bottles of poison": Do you want Jokic to score 40+ points, or do you want him to give out 15 assists?

Counting Jokic's 41-point game, he has scored 40+ in 21 career games, and the Nuggets are 13-8, with a 61.9% winning percentage, and in 14 games where Jokic has at least 15 assists, the Nuggets are 12-2, or 85.7%.

If we focus only on this season, when Jokic scored at least 30 points, the Nuggets were 20-9 with a 69.0 percent winning percentage, while when he handed out at least 12 assists, the Nuggets were 25-1 for a 96.2 percent win rate.

Clearly, the Heat preferred Jokic to be a scorer than a playmaker, and they did it in the G2 game. Jokic scored 41 points, but he had only four assists, while he averaged 10.5 assists per game in the playoffs this year before the G2 finals.

Letting Jokic offense but cutting him off from his teammates was the key to the Heat's victory and helped them win G2. Next, the Finals G3 will move to Miami, who do you think the Nuggets or Heat have any hope of winning the G3?