There is a picture and there is a truth|The finals G5 is the finale? The Heat may really be able to survive in the end

Chat ball does not flicker, there is a picture and the truth.

The finals began, and "Coin Chat Basketball" continued to restore the winning and losing elements of the game in the way of "picture and truth", interpret the focus topic, watch the excitement, and also look at the doorway.

Looking at the first four games of the Finals, it can basically be said that if there are no major accidents (injuries, etc.), the Nuggets have won the championship unstoppable, the strength of the two teams is not on the same level, the Heat must play perfectly to win, and the Nuggets will not lose if they perform normally.

It's a bit like the 2020 Finals, when the Heat also beat the East, and the Lakers in the West, and it was in the Western Conference that the Lakers eliminated the Nuggets to advance.

Three years later, the Lakers have been used by the Nuggets to sacrifice the flag for the Finals in the Western Conference, and the Heat have broken through from the East again, but they are once again facing the insurmountable gap in combat power.

In the past two games, the Nuggets have played the game in two different positions. G3 is Jokic and Murray's blocking duo, it is said that Mike Malone stayed up all night after losing G2, from the situation of G3, Marlon stayed up late, the Nuggets adjusted the distribution of the ball, Jokic set cover for Murray 32 times to a new season high, the two played 15 dribbles, Murray attacked first, and then Mr. Jos, both had a triple-double, and this game could not be played.

This time it's Spoh's turn to sleep, and when it comes to tricks, Spoh is an expert among experts, and the Heat face the Nuggets' duo's blocking option to wrap Murray in G4, and collect flank defensive forces to pile up under the basket, weakening Jokic's blocking smooth.

When Jokic singled with the ball near the basket, the Heat defended the moment he started dribbling, and then rotated to save Jokic's pass, which also worked well. Jokic and Murray also didn't feel good, scoring 38 points on 13-of-36 shooting from the G4 combined, a number that the Heat would definitely be happy with.

However, the Heat still lost, they reduced the offensive efficiency of Jokic and Murray, and caused Jokic to make five fouls, did not play half of the fourth quarter, but still could not play, which made the Heat very depressed.

The Heat came all the way up, in addition to Butler being very hard, there are always surprises to stand up is also a key driving force, the Heat felt the opponent's surprise suppression in the Finals, G3 is Braun, G4 is a group of people.

The Heat can close Murray or let Mr. Joe not catch the ball in the dessert position, but as long as they play in the high position, the Heat will use at least three people to participate in the defense, especially if Adebayo wants to leave the basket, the bottom line will become the Heat's defensive weak point. You could say what Porter Jr. played in the Finals, but when he cut to the basket to catch the ball, the Heat really didn't have much to do.

Because, he is higher than Adebayo, and this is talent.

The Heat's defensive difficulty is that when facing Jokic Murray, the two people are not enough, and when the Heat tilt their defensive resources towards Yomu, they have to face single-point explosions from other Nuggets players, such as Gordon, who is tall, strong and jumping.

Gordon was G4's strongest X-factor, scoring a game-high 27 points. When you use Butler to play Murray, Adebayo to play against the teacher, and then you have to use Love to assist in defense at any time, Gordon against the Heat and the rest of the players are dimensionality reduction.

Moreover, Malone also gave Gordon tactical support, when Jokic sat on the bench for a foul in the fourth quarter, Gordon and Murray played a beautiful back cover pass, Adebayo defended and wrapped Murray, and Gordon leveled the Heat penalty area.

The alignment was the biggest headache for Spoo, who removed three starters in the fourth quarter of G4 and used a "double bus" lineup with Martin, Lowry and Dunroe to fill the space, but it was still broken by the Nuggets.

Bruce Brown chased Dunroe, who was the Heat's best offensive player in the fourth quarter, scoring seven points in a single quarter, but Brown scored 11 points in the quarter and came with a wave of roll call crits.

To put it simply, the Nuggets and the Heat have a difference in strength, and it's hard to imagine that the Heat can win the Nuggets four times, but does this mean that G5 is going through the process, and the Heat are not saved?

Pinch Murray, reduce Jokic deep under the basket, this defensive strategy is what the Heat should adhere to, Gordon will not play 27 points, Brown will not be a fourth-quarter explosion, the Nuggets' auxiliary players are variables after all, Jokic and Murray are constant, if the Heat can control the constant, there is a theoretical hope of winning the next game.

The Heat need to shoot three-pointers, which is a cliché, but it has to be talked about, because three-pointers are the only project that the Heat may dominate on paper, after all, they are the most accurate three-point team in this year's playoffs.

The Heat were able to win G2 by making 17 three-pointers, and they hit a combined 18 three-pointers in G3 and G4, including 8 of 25 in G4. There is a factor in the Nuggets' defense, they used a lot of defense changes in order to limit the Heat's three-point shots, and the first three games dominated by sinking defense, and also gave some extended defensive interference three-point performances in G4.

However, it's not just because the Nuggets are well defended, the Heat are also a problem, they have eight three-point shots in G4 that are big open (defenders are at least 6 feet from the shooter, 6 feet is about 1.8 meters), and the Heat are 2 of 8.

This means that the Heat's three-point rebound has room to pullback, and in terms of shooting character conservation, the G5 rally wave is not all luxurious.

The three-point shot is the first shot of hope for the Heat's "survival", and Butler is the second shot of hope. To put it bluntly, Butler has never averaged 30+ per game in a single game after the G1 finals in the East, averaging 21.8 points per game in the series against the Nuggets, not even the Heat's leading scorer (Adebayo averaged 22.3 points per game).

Butler is tough, but Gordon is also hard, after a series of tests to defend Downs in the first round, Booker and Adu in the second round, and Old Jen in the West, Gordon is now like Wiggins in last year's playoffs, specializing in playing elite.

In order to relieve the pressure on Butler, Spall made some attempts, letting Butler play the connecting section, avoiding Gordon's counterpoint, letting Lowry or Dunroe take possession of the ball, and Butler played without the ball.

The problem is that these attempts are not enough for the Heat to completely move the Nuggets' defense, because Butler is not aggressive enough, and he is the only person in the Heat who can force the Nuggets to change the defensive layout through his personal ability, such as the one below to break through the suppression defense, causing the Nuggets to make defensive mistakes, creating open opportunities for Dunroe, and the rest of the Heat can't do it.

The Heat certainly don't want to be swept away by gentlemen, and the key to avoiding this ending is whether Butler can regain his bravery. In the first round, the Heat and Bucks also had poor talent, and being able to black eight was closely related to Butler's state explosion, and when he scored a combined 98 points in two games (G4 and G5 in the first round), talent difference was no longer a problem.

The Finals 1-3 scene, Butler experienced, the Heat played the Lakers in 2020 that series is the first four games lost 3 games, Butler in G5 scored 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and 5 steals to save the game point, now the Heat need this year's first round or three years ago Finals G5 version of Butler appeared.

If you want to change your life, you must go against the sky, there is no choice.