G4 interpretation: Why is the trend of the finals? The Heat's offense was thoroughly studied by the Nuggets
I know that there is little interest in this series, but I still want to talk about this article: why is the Finals the way it is?
But not at length - it is enough to give me a section.
G4 is a game that, in a way, ended in the first quarter.
Some friends may ask, wasn't the Heat still leading by 1 point in the first quarter? How did it end?
I want to say to you, look at the process, don't just look at the results.
In the first quarter of the game, there was a clear theme: the Heat's offensive development ability has obviously not kept up with the Nuggets, and even is several levels behind.
I think everyone understands the term developing offensive level – but I'm not just talking about the obvious thing that Jokic and Murray are more talented in developing attack than Butler and Adebayo.
I'm not talking about talent.
Friends familiar with this year's Heat should know that in this year's playoffs, the Heat development offense has been able to produce an effect far beyond their "talent", among them, there is the magic of the players themselves, and there is Spoelstra's daring to use people + precise tactical arrangements.
In these rounds of the playoffs, the Heat's offensive development can be said to have "surprises" every time.
In the first round of playing the Bucks, Butler's "upshift" transformation, Love and Vincent's surprise soldiers, hit the Bucks dumbfounded.
In the second round, Vincent continued the magic, Strus incarnation Klay, plus Butler and Adebayo's basic set, they eliminated the Knicks.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat's "magic" reached its peak, and on the basis of the first two rounds, Martin, Duncan Robinson stepped up again - you feel like this team suddenly everyone can block with the ball, everyone can break inside, everyone can hit threes.
So the Boston Celtics were caught off guard and capsized.
Why do the Heat always have "surprise soldiers" and can always come up with new "development offensive methods" unexpectedly?
Some would say that Spoo is powerful and tactical.
Indeed, Spall is powerful, and the Heat's tactics are subtle. But this is not the essence of the problem.
To put it bluntly, tactics are not so complicated in the eyes of NBA coaches - no matter how good and exquisite tactics have their way to crack - tactics are not like martial arts cheats, not who picked it up or who came up with it is the first in the world, otherwise the Chinese team also has the possibility of winning the World Cup.
Tactics are ultimately dependent on the players - in a "strange" word, there is a "strange soldier", there is a "strange move".
To put it bluntly, I let XX run this tactic, do you think he does not have this ability, can't shoot/can't break? But sorry, he can.
Vincent's blocking, three-pointing, Struss's ball-holding three-point + Clay-style catch-and-shoot three-pointer, Kevin Martin's breakthrough and mid-range, Duncan Robinson's ball-holding blocking, anti-run cut, breakthrough - in fact, all have this meaning.
The opponent's tactics of not being able to prevent the Heat are not really how sophisticated the tactics themselves are, but that they don't understand the Heat's players who "don't know where to come from".
The most obvious manifestation is that both fans and opponents on the court often burst into the first few rounds of this year's playoffs: "Can he still do this?!" Exclaim.
The Heat ranked last in the league in offensive efficiency in the regular season. Although this is certainly not their initiative, in fact, they have achieved the effect of what Chinese calls [Hidden Feng].
The reason why the heat is sharp is actually the key to [hiding].
Seeing the dagger, he was not prepared to attack it.
This made the "miracle" of the Heat. However, it also became a dead end in their finals.
Having said all that, let's go back to this game - why is it that the Heat's offensive development ability has obviously not been able to keep up with the Nuggets, or even a few levels behind? Because they lost that advantage - [Tibet].
The Bucks, the Greens, whether you like to admit it or not, but I think a large part of them lost to a great extent by being caught off guard.
Completely unprepared, they were attacked by the Heat "Surprise Soldiers" - often they had to take a second game to slow down and adjust - but then a new "Surprise Soldier" appeared.
Take the Green Army as an example, just figured out how to prevent Strus and Vincent from popping up; Just figured out how to defend against Vincent, Martin came out; How to prevent Martin from figuring it out, Duncan Robinson came out again...
So, these formidable opponents fell. But their fall is not meaningless.
They became a "lesson in the past" for the Denver Nuggets.
When the Heat have no secrets, like assassins emerging from the shadows – they are no longer powerful.
In the four games against the Nuggets, the Heat's offensive efficiency is: 100.0, 129.1, 102.2, 104.4.
In addition to the Nuggets' own mistakes + Butler's power + the Heat's three-point G2, the Heat's offensive efficiency can be said to be a world away from their previous series.
Caleb Martin is no longer magical, Gab Vincent is no longer magical, Strus is no longer magical, Duncan Robinson is no longer magical - and so the Heat are no longer magical.
So why are they no longer magical? Many people may say that "the feel is running out" and "the law of conservation of character".
But aside from the "probability problem," the most important reason in fact is that the Nuggets have studied the Heat players thoroughly.
Let me give you a simple example:
Who will defend the Celtics against Martin? Horford came to the defense, so they were killed.
And what about the Nuggets? Murray has the most counterpoint time, followed by Porter, Pope, Brown - what do they have in common? Young and fast-footed (Porter wasn't very fast, but he was very targeted when defending Martin, pushing Martin to Jokic's side, Jokic sinking, and he then used his reach to interfere with the chasing cap from behind).
On the contrary, the Nuggets rarely use forwards to defend Martin, and Gordon and Green have very little time against Martin.
So, when Martin lost his speed advantage and breakthroughs were targeted, the opponent didn't need to let him go like Horford, and he even slipped down the three-pointer—and he was no longer magical.
To put this in comparison, let's go straight to the first quarter of the day round by round - this is a concentrated embodiment of how the Nuggets "study the Heat":
The Heat started with the first attack, they learned from Butler's premature weakness in the previous game, and the first quarter was dominated by Gabe Vincent - a common choice for the Heat in this year's playoffs.
Let's take a look at how the Nuggets defended Vincent.
Jamar Murray faced Vincent and squeezed through cover from above (better able to interfere with shots). However, Jokic did not mean to step forward to delay, but remained in front of Adebayo.
At the same time, the weak-sided arc top against Butler's Gordon moved two small steps to Vincent's possible breakthrough route (center) to assist in defense.
From this round, we can clearly see the Nuggets' research on Vincent's offense - what are they willing to give Vincent? What is not willing to put to Vincent?
What they were willing to put on Vincent was a three-pointer with some interference (through the cover interference of the defender). (If they are unwilling to give such a ball to the player, Jokic will take delay)
What they didn't want to give to Vincent was, firstly, that he drove Adebayo's pass (so Jokic didn't leave Adebayo), and secondly, that he went to mid-range shots (so Gordon had to put pressure on Vincent to help him give up this option).
As it turned out, the Nuggets hit their defensive goal — Vincent missed a three-point hit under interference.
Because it's a round-by-round review, let's also take a look at the Nuggets' offense. (I'll try to brush it off)
Also learning the lessons of G3, the Heat chose to limit Murray with unlimited defenses from the beginning, but we can see that this choice immediately led to an interior misalignment, but this round the Nuggets did not take advantage of it, and Murray suddenly missed Porter's shot.
Then the Heat played a conversion offense, and then look at the Nuggets' offense.
This return contract Kic directly sat low and attracted Butler's bag at the top of the arc, and he split Murray, forming a good offensive opportunity, but Murray did not choose to shake but directly broke through, resulting in Vincent not losing position and missing a shot.
Let's look at the Nugget Heat Protection that we focused on.
The Heat still let Vincent launch the block, and the Nuggets were still the defensive strategy of the first round: Murray squeezed through, Jokic sank, and the center assisted.
We see that Vincent did not choose three points in this round, but Porter's assistant defense made him a little afraid of not choosing the mid-range, he hit the ground and passed to Adebayo, but because Jokic chose to sink, he did not lose position at all, interfering with Adebayo's shooting.
This round, we can also see Jokic's defensive position sense and judgment speed - he has long known that Adebayo will choose to shoot in this position, so his entire defensive action is basically "synchronized" with Adebayo.
Look at the Nuggets again.
Or Jokic fell low and backed, this round Vincent did not dare to fully come up to the clip, so Jokic turned and hooked and hit it like a casual walk - which is why the playoffs "top superstar" is more useful than the "top tactical system".
When there is an [absolute one-on-one advantage point] like Jokic, your tactics are likely to be to kill without clipping, and assist in the package... Simple, but not solving.
Let's look at the Nuggets Heat.
This round, because Vincent launched a blocking effect for two consecutive rounds, the Heat changed to Strus to launch a block.
Let's look at the changes in the Nuggets' defense.
When defending Vincent, they squeezed through cover, and when defending Strus, it became a change of defense, although this round of switching defenses was mainly because of Pope's misalignment of Adebayo, but the Nuggets were indeed more afraid of Strus's ball-holding block for three points - when the defensive cover is Jokic, Jokic will also delay out.
(In fact, those who have watched the first few games also know that the Nuggets have always been like this to defend Strus)
This is also the result of a study of player reports - defense Vincent, defense against mid-range and breakthroughs, giving three points under interference; Put Strus, block three-point shots directly, and test his shots and other offensive skills.
There will be rendering next. Let's keep looking.
The Heat still had a direct attack on Murray - probably because Murray was really scared in the last game. This round, Love defended for three seconds.
The Nuggets re-served, the Heat continued to pinch down, Murray split Jokic, and Jokic found a bottom-corner Pope space (because Vincent came to fill in Jokic) - only four words can describe it.
Next, the Heat's round, Vincent to instigate the blocking, the Nuggets' defense remains unchanged, Vincent this time changed to cover the other side to avoid the center defense, but the Nuggets also arranged for this.
First of all, Pope does not cooperate with the defense, avoiding Vincent's strong side bottom corner, while Jokic sinks to the basket, on the one hand to prevent the layup, on the other hand to compress Vincent's passing angle - to whose passing angle? For Butler's.
Gordon contracted early, stood on the Vincent pass route compressed by Jokic, and snatched Vincent's pass that cut into Butler.
In this round, the Nuggets can be said to be like a cow, and have thoroughly studied everything Vincent wants to do and can do.
Looking back at Gordon's fast offense causing fouls, let's look at the Heat offense.
It is only at 8:30 in the first quarter that the Heat scored the first positional battle goal of the game.
Vincent lowered his cover position on this round, Jokic chose to delay in order to defend him from mid-range, Adebayo quickly opened the next straight to attract Gordon, Vincent turned the bottom corner, Butler turned another 45 degrees, and Love hit a three-pointer.
The Heat attack is wonderful, but the Nuggets' defense is still clear in this round - defensive Vincent mid-shot to avoid him opening the touch, Gordon prioritizes contraction to defend Adebayo, and after returning to the position, he did not directly save Butler but gave a step to avoid being picked up by Butler to go to the dessert area (this Celtics know well), and Porter also did his best to assist in defense.
The Heat continued to pinch Murray and continue to give Jokic big open and passing options, and this round shows that Jokic has doubts about Porter....... (Porter did shoot too poorly in this series) he chose to break through the throw - in fact, this is usually a sure choice, but this time back contract Kic did not score.
Seeing that most of the time had passed, Vincent and Strus were not satisfactory in developing offense, Butler could not sit still, and he began to do it himself - misplaced to force Murray and assist Adebayo to throw and score.
Butler's ability is naturally unquestionable (he has proven himself to be a playoff T1 team countless times), but is such an offensive round good? Those who have read our G3 analysis will know - I have a point since G3: the Nuggets so easily gave Murray to Butler in the first quarter was purposeful - this purpose is to induce Butler to adopt such an offensive method as breakthrough and mid-range, thereby draining his physical strength.
From this point of view, even, the score of this round, at this point in the first quarter, is also "acceptable" or even "actively selected" by the Nuggets.
Then the Nuggets round, Yomu blocked, Jokic missed, and then looked at the Heat.
Strus blocking and demolition launch - did we say above: Strus blocking demolition, the Nuggets are delayed out to defend.
In this round, first Jokic delayed blocking and did not give Strus a three-point shot, then Pope contracted to interfere with Adebayo's next catch, and Strus passed into the bottom left corner - in fact, friends who have been watching the Heat should have found that this is a fixed option for Strus to block - apparently Pope also knew, so he saved very quickly, and finally Vincent did not get a shot, and the Heat were forced to finish with Adebayo mid-shot.
On previous trips to the East, Strus's ball-blocking three-point shoots and this kind of straight bottom-corner pass had caught the Greens, Knicks, and Bucks off guard — none of whom expected Strus, who was just a 3D last season, to do these jobs.
But this series, obviously, with lessons from the past, the Nuggets have studied the Strus player thoroughly.
The Nuggets offense, as long as they don't pinch it, Murray scores one-on-one - by the way, in recent games, because Murray played Vincent and others' super efficiency, the Heat have had to use Butler more to defend him, but this undoubtedly increased Butler's physical exertion.
This round, the Heat just changed a round of Vincent matching, Murray immediately scored, in fact, a "knock the mountain" effect - Murray reminded the Heat, continue to use Butler and pinch, Vincent can't prevent me.
Back to the Nuggets' defensive rounds.
Check out the Nuggets' defensive rotation this round. Not to mention that the Nuggets are a "defensive weak team" - perhaps because of Jokic and Porter, this team is not the top in terms of absolute defensive talent, but their rotation speed, defensive selection, and research on opponents' offense are completely excellent.
Butler breaks through, Porter raises his arm to cover it, Jokic comes from the other side to assist - exactly at the same time, Murray moves over to seal the empty space in the bottom corner - Butler's optimal shot option is gone.
Butler was forced to return the ball to the top of the arc, the pass was not good (this kind of ball is not well passed except Doncic), Vincent re-initiated, but the Nuggets directly switched defenses when he was covering, and Jokic returned to the inside rim early, Vincent did not make a shot, split the bottom corner Strus, but Gordon also predicted early and squeezed through the cover interference in advance.
This round, the Nuggets can be said to have completely "predicted" all of the Heat's offensive options - not only Martin, Vincent, Strus, the entire Heat team has been thoroughly studied by the Nuggets.
Murray draws the bag to create a misalignment and directly bukkake Adebayo - too hard.
This is exactly how they eliminated the Lakers - changing defenses is already the strongest defensive way that the Heat, Lakers and this team with interior characteristics (single inside, but with strong defense ability) can give, but at this time Murray can complete the "hard solution", the opponent has no way.
The Heat scored just seven points until five minutes into the first quarter — and Butler had to step up and start stopping the bleeding for the team.
And all offensive methods except Butler are basically limited by the Nuggets.
In this round, Adebayo responded high, and the Heat played a compound tactic of Strus covering Vincent's cut and then his own slip, but it was recognized by the Nuggets.
Cutting Pope and Brown's defensive options, you can hardly think that the steal in this round is the result of improvisation - Pope, after changing the defense of Vincent, has been facing in the direction of Strus, completely prepared in advance to intercept the pass.
The Nuggets were out of place, and Jokic easily found a pop foul to cut into.
Strus blocked, the pass was nearly tackled, and Vincent stumbled through to lose the ball.
I said above - Strus blocks the right side, and the pass is most likely an option in the bottom left corner. The Nuggets have thoroughly researched it.
Murray attracts the bag, points Gordon, shifts the top of the arc Brown 3-point shot - Xingyun Liushui x2.
The Heat's offense left Butler alone. He hit a hard solution and shot to help the Heat "stop the bleeding" again.
The Nuggets Jokic broke through, attracted multiple people again, and shot from the top of the arc Brown with a wide open shot - they can even choose to "reward" a teammate who just scored, completely referring to where to hit, but this round Brown did not continue to hit.
The Heat continued Butler's singles struggling to hold on.
Jokic again attracted the pocket and conducted the ball to create a large open space at the top of the arc, but Pope missed a three-point shot - the kind of ball that was completely "dodged by bullets" for the Heat.
Lowry's "fairy ball" grabbed a three-point shot.
Turning back Jokic made a foul response.
The Heat's final attack, the Nuggets successively changed defenses to disassemble Butler's block, pay attention to the direction of Brown's footsteps to Butler and the positions of Jokic and Pope on both sides - Brown gave Butler the left side, with the intention of driving him to Pop and the sideline, Jokic contracted the middle to avoid Butler crossing the right side.
In the end, the Nuggets completed the steal.
Look, in the "must defend one" round, the Nuggets even showed that they even Butler had it in place.
These are all the rounds of the first quarter of G4.
I believe that if you patiently read the analysis of these rounds, you can understand why I say this game: "The first quarter is over." ”
Obviously, the Nuggets can create good chances (either open or misplaced) every round on the offensive end, but it's just a matter of whether they can take advantage of them.
And the Heat? Everything about them seems to be "seen" by the Nuggets, who know them incomparably well — knowing each of their offensive habits, their dessert area, and their favorite tactics — the Heat is like playing against an opponent who can predict the future, and what they want to do next is completely within the opponent's expectation.
All they have left is Jimmy Butler.
But without this amazing group of role players, how many nails can Jimmy Butler play even if he is covered in iron?
The magic of the Heat is no longer just a matter of probability — it's the Nuggets stepping on the bodies of the Bucks, Knicks, and Green Army, studying each of them thoroughly.
This time, maybe there really is "no miracle" anymore.
(I can't rule out the possibility that the Heat will win another game (after all, I predict 5-6 games), but at most, it's one)