The stats don't lie|Jokic played the strongest performance in playoff history: Jordan James is not as good as him?
The Nuggets defeated the Heat 4-1 to win the championship, and Jokic was unanimously named the Finals MVP. Looking back at Jokic's performance in these 20 playoff games, a topic has begun to cause heated discussions: Is Jokic's championship trip this year the strongest individual performance in the history of the playoffs? As strong as Jordan and James's peak playoff season, but also this year's him? In this issue of "Data Don't Lie", let's explore this topic -
What kind of stats did Jokic type?
In this year's 20 playoff games, Jokic averaged 30 points, 13.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, shooting 54.8% from the field, 46.1% from three-point range and 79.9% from the free-throw line. In five Finals games, Jokic averaged 30.2 points, 14 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.4 blocks per game, shooting 58.3% from the field, 42.1% from three-point range and 83.8% from the free-throw line.
The NBA's latest championship poster calls Jokic a "record setter" and lists what great achievements he has created in this season's playoffs.
The 14 assists of G1 in the Finals set a record for assists in the NBA player's Finals debut, which is also the record for a center Finals assist in NBA history. Jokic accumulated 190 assists in the playoffs, setting a single-season playoff record for a center in NBA history. The 600-point playoff total is also the Nuggets' all-time single-season playoff record.
NBA officials also listed Jokic as the first person in history in a number of statistics: the first player to rank first in the league in single-season playoff total points, total rebounds and assists; The first player to have at least 250 rebounds + 150 assists in a single-season playoff; The first center with at least 500 points + 100 assists in a single-season playoff; the first player to average at least 30 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists per game in the Finals; the first player to have 10 triple-doubles in a single season playoff; The first player to score at least 30 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists in a single Finals.
Did Jokic, who performed so well in this year's playoffs, really play the strongest individual performance in playoff history?
Multidimensional comparison: Is Jokic's performance an all-time first?
Let's look at a table, if you add up the single-season playoff average (30 points), assists (9.5), and rebounds (13.5), Jokic's total value (PAR) is 53, and the three players in NBA history who have averaged more than 50 per game in a single-season playoff are all in the table below. Of those 24 absolutely outstanding individual playoff performances, only 9 made it to the Finals (green yes below) and then only three won championships (yellow yes below).
To be the first single-season playoff performance in history, it is obviously impossible to discuss the final outcome without a championship. Therefore, among the 24 performances, Bill Russell in 1961-62, Wilt Chamberlain in 1966-67 and Jokic in 2022-23 are among those who can be discussed.
Let's start with Russell in the 1961-62 playoffs. He averaged 22.4 points, 26.4 rebounds and 5 assists per game, and while his PAR (53.8) was slightly better than Jokic, he played 48 minutes per game, 8.5 more than Jokic, and in terms of shooting percentage, he was significantly inferior to Jokic, with 45.8% compared to Jokic's 54.8%. He shot 72.6 percent from the free throw line, also less than Jokic's 79.9 percent. From an efficiency perspective, Russell is no match for Jokic.
Consider Chamberlain in the 1966-67 playoffs. At the time, he averaged 21.7 points, 29.1 rebounds and 9 assists per game, and his PAR (59.8) was much higher than Jokic's. Similar to Russell's situation, Chamberlain averaged 47.9 minutes per game, which is not as efficient as Jokic. Chamberlain also has a notable shortcoming, shooting just 38.7 percent from the free-throw line, which should not be the greatest individual performance in the playoffs.
In the two seasons of Chamberlain and Russell, the league has not yet introduced a three-point line, which can be regarded as basketball in ancient times, and lacks further comparison of high-level data. To be fair, Jokic is at least the best playoff individual performance in nearly 50 years.
Is it better than Jordan James' peak season?
In the current ranking of many historical stars in the US media, Jordan and James basically locked the top two. As strong as Jojan, they played their best year in the playoffs, can't they compare to Jokic's performance this season?
The table above is the highest ranking of the five playoff averages since the league counted steals and blocks. In the 2023 playoffs, Jokic's five stats add up to 55.1, ranking second, second only to the 1974 Bucks' Abdul-Jabbar (56.6). However, Abdul-Jabbar did not win the championship that year.
From this point of view, Jokic's total numbers are already the best of the championship wins. On this table, we see that James' strongest playoff performance was 2018, when he averaged 34 points, 9.1 rebounds, 9 assists, 1.4 steals and 1 block per game, with a total value of 54.5. Jordan's strongest playoff performance came in 1990, when he averaged 36.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 2.8 steals and 0.9 blocks per game, for a total of 54.4.
In the two years when James had his best personal performances (2018 and 2009), his team did not win a championship. Jordan's best personal performance was in 1990, when his team didn't win the championship. Comparing James' 2018, Jordan's 1990 and Jokic's 2023 playoff high-level data, the results are as follows -
Of the 17 high-order data comparisons with James, James had an advantage of 9 and Jokic of 8. If James can win the championship that year, maybe his performance can be regarded as an all-time first.
Of the 17 high-order stats with Jordan, Jokic had an advantage in 10, six inferior to Jordan, and one tied with the two.
The individual high-level stats of James and Jordan's championship-winning season are even less comparable to Jokic's performance this year.
I have to sigh that from a data point of view, Jokic's performance in the 2023 playoffs, if not the first in NBA history, is the first since the NBA introduced the three-point line. What do you think?