(Wen/Shao Shuai) With the evolution of the international situation, the price of the international crude oil market is also rising. Recently, after the price of 92# gasoline exceeded 8 yuan, the advantages of new energy vehicles were gradually reflected. After all, the electricity bill of an electric car for one month may only be the money of the owner of the oil car to add oil once. For ordinary people, it is always good to save some money.
At the same time, the rising price of new energy vehicles is not "friendly" at present. In addition, a long waiting period is also a problem that some potential consumer groups of new energy vehicles need to overcome. So, in the current environment, should we switch to electric vehicles?
The international situation affects the future rise and fall of oil prices is not clear
The impact of the international situation on the market is immediate. People who have been in peace for many years will inevitably have some delay in their perception of the impact and destructive power of war. In the face of unstable international relations and supply and demand, it is not impossible for Brent or WTI oil prices to continue to break through new highs under the basic conditions that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain.
In the short term, the instability of the international situation is bound to cause negative sentiment for the trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the international oil price exceeding 130 US dollars will no longer follow up the increase. However, through conversion, it can be seen that the standard calculation of $130 is reflected in 92# gasoline, which is about 10 yuan / liter. Owners of gasoline cars with higher markings are bound to pay higher fuel bills.
On the other hand, the current international oil price is like futures, you can be bullish or bearish. Once the situation in Russia and Ukraine has eased, or the two sides have reached an agreement, the international market will return to normal operation, and the decline in oil prices will be imperative. Of course, international bear speculators take reverse profits, and it is not ruled out that they will bring a retaliatory decline after the rise in oil prices. The price of oil at that time may be very different from the current price. From the perspective of the international situation, the rise in the short term is objective, but in the long run, the return to normalcy is the trend.
Chip/capacity shortage Wait in line to find out first
This emoji that circulated among Tesla's car owners to be picked up is enough to summarize the "difficulty" of picking up the car at the moment. Subject to capacity constraints, Tesla is currently busy with production deliveries. It is worth noting that in the case that the Berlin factory cannot fully start operation, the Shanghai Gigafactory must take into account the delivery of both domestic/foreign markets, and the delivery cycle will inevitably be extended.
On the other hand, the chip problem has not been completely resolved. At the same time, with the continuous sanctions of the international situation, the raw materials for the production of new energy vehicle batteries will also face a supply crisis, but they have not yet been exposed.
[Xiaopeng P7 booking interface]
[Volkswagen ID.4 CROZZ booking interface]
It should be noted that even a best-selling model such as the Xiaopeng P7 has a waiting period of about 6-7 weeks. In addition, traditional car companies such as Volkswagen's ID series will also display on the order page that "the current optional rush is expected to be tight with resources, please confirm with the agent and make a decision." From this point of view, queuing up to wait for cars is what prospective owners of new energy vehicles must face. And while waiting for the car to be picked up after more than a month, will the international situation resume? At that time, oil prices will fall back to the position of early 7 yuan? At that time, will you choose to continue to pay the loan, or give up the deposit and continue to drive a fuel car?
Different use scenarios The advantages of short-distance commuting of new energy are obvious
Even if new energy vehicles are given a lot of intelligent definitions, in the final analysis, they are still a tool for driving. The main purpose of most consumer purchases is still to drive. From the current basic supporting points of view of new energy vehicles, the use scenarios of new energy pure electric vehicles in first-tier/provincial capital cities are significantly stronger than those of other cities. On the other hand, the advantages of new energy vehicles in short-distance commuting are more prominent.
Among them, the current mainstream cruising range of new energy vehicles is between 400-600km. At the same time, due to the geographical environment of different regions, its cruising range will fluctuate to a certain extent. Even with a cruising range of 400km+, the commuting cost performance is obvious for car owners who commute 80km per day. And even if the car owner can only use the public fast charging pile to charge, its expenditure on charging costs only accounts for 2-30% of the fuel cost. For ordinary consumers, the temptation of a three-fold discount on commuting costs is great.
So, is there no disadvantage for new energy pure electric vehicles? Non also.
Compared with urban commuting, in the long-distance and high-speed driving environment, pure electric vehicles will inevitably have higher power consumption in order to maintain high output. In contrast, fuel vehicles in a constant medium-high speed driving environment, its fuel economy can be maximized. On the contrary, it has certain advantages in terms of energy consumption.
On the other hand, new energy vehicles can get highly sought after in the city, and it is inseparable from the layout of highly dense charging piles. In the long-distance driving environment, the pure electrical supplementation of new energy vehicles is more cramped. In such a driving environment, fuel vehicles will not have these anxieties of replenishment.
Write at the end:
The current oil price is too high, which invisibly forces consumers to turn to the embrace of new energy vehicles. However, based on the criteria of market laws, the price of crude oil in the international market cannot always run at a high level. At the same time, various supply problems within a certain period of time are also the driving force that affects the delay in the production of new energy vehicles and indirectly leads to price increases. For consumers, there is no frequent demand for short-distance commuting in the city, there is no suitable energy condition, or wait and see.
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