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In the two pillar products of iPhone and MAC, refreshing the lower price limit with the cost performance of the third generation of the iPhone SE and refreshing the Mac performance and price ceiling with the M1 Ultra are just the tricks played by Apple's spring conference. How much damage can the new iPhone SE and M1 Ultra chips add to Apple's hardware business?
In the early morning of March 9, Beijing time, Apple spent about 1 hour to complete the spring conference.
At this concise conference, Apple launched a total of 6 new products: iPhone SE (third generation), iPhone 13/13 Pro Cangling Green Edition, M1 Ultra chip, iPad Air, Mac Studio and Studio Display.
In fact, these two products at this conference deserve the most attention from the outside world: the expected iPhone SE, and the unexpected M1 Ultra chip.
The iPhone SE iii starts at 3499 yuan, although it is 200 yuan higher than the previous generation, but it is equipped with the same A15 chip as the iPhone 13 series, and the 6-core CPU speed is 1.8 times faster than the iPhone 8; the SE iii generation is also the first SE phone to support 5G.
At this conference, Apple did not release the M2 chip as the outside world speculated, but launched the M1 ultra, the "super cup" of the M1 chip.
At the same time, Apple also launched the desktop Mac Studio equipped with the M1 Ultra chip, which is a new model of the Mac product line, and also pulled the price of mac to the latest ceiling: up to 59999 yuan. Apple calls it the "dream engine."
In the two revenue pillars of mobile phones and computers, Apple refreshed the lower price limit with the third generation of the iPhone SE and the Mac performance and price cap with the M1 Ultra.
This is just a trick played by Apple's spring conference. How much lethality can these two tricks add to Apple's hardware business this year?
The best value for money iPhone SE
The iPhone SE series was first launched in 2016, and it is Apple's low-end mobile phone product. Apple released the iPhone SE II in 2020.
According to third-party statistics, the first generation of iPhone SE sold a total of 30 million units. The sales of the second generation of the iPhone SE will perform fairly well in the entire iPhone series in 2020, but it will be a bit less than satisfactory in 2021.
In Omdia's list of the top ten best-selling phones in the world in 2020, the iPhone SE ranked second with 24.2 million units sold, and the first place was the 64.8 million units of the iPhone 11.
According to Counterpoint data, in 2021, global smartphone shipments will be 1.39 billion units; among the world's top ten best-selling mobile phones, the iPhone SE II ranks only eighth, with a market share of 1.6%.
Based on this calculation, the sales of the second generation of iPhone SE in 2021 are 22.24 million units.
How big sales can the iPhone SE three generations generate?
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives conservatively expects the new iPhone SE to ship more than 30 million units in its first year.
The third generation of the iPhone SE has not changed much in appearance and overall design, but its biggest selling point is the high cost performance.
The iPhone SE is equipped with Apple's A15 bionic chip, which supports 5G, which can bring a performance experience comparable to the latest flagship iPhone 13, but the starting price is only 200 yuan higher than the second-generation SE.
Therefore, it can also be said that the third generation of iPhone SE has refreshed the lower price limit of the iPhone with ultra-high cost performance.
Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Mingxi has predicted that iPhone shipments will reach 250-260 million units in 2022.
He believes that by 2023, among the smartphone brands, Apple's growth visibility is the best, and the key lies in the ecological advantages of the iPhone and the product strategy that drives the demand for replacement.
If the first year of the iPhone SE III can reach 30 million units, it means that it will contribute about 12% of Apple's shipments in 2022.
After 2 years, the iPhone SE was updated again and launched the third generation of products, and Apple will undoubtedly use it to further cover more 5G replacement crowds and seize more market share.
In 2021, Apple is riding the dust in the smartphone market. According to Counterpoint statistics, Apple's mobile phone revenue last year was $196 billion, ranking first in the world, accounting for 44%, more than the mobile phone revenue of Samsung, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo in the TOP5 combined.
In terms of shipments, Apple sold a total of 237.9 million phones last year. According to this calculation, the average price of Apple mobile phones in 2021 will reach 5200 yuan, a proper high-end winner.
In 2022, among the world's smartphone manufacturers with heads and faces, especially China's local manufacturers, almost all of them are impacting the high-end and want to grab the cake with Apple.
When local mobile phone manufacturers have gone to Apple's hinterland to grab the cake, Apple has hit them back with a new iPhone SE - the price band of 3000-4000 is the most intensive and competitive part of domestic high-end mobile phone sales.
However, the iPhone SE may also be difficult to hit the Android camp in the Chinese market.
In terms of hardware, the configuration of domestic mobile phones in the same price range includes processors, images, battery life and charging efficiency, etc., which are much higher than the third generation of iPhone SE.
Taking the Xiaomi 12 series launched by Xiaomi at the end of last year as an example, it is equipped with the strongest chip in the Android camp in 2022 - Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 1, the front 3200 pixel camera, the rear 50 million + 13 million + 8 million pixel camera, equipped with a 4500mAh large battery, support 67W wired second charge, 50W wireless second charge and 10W wireless reverse charge.
But in terms of price, the starting price of xiaomi mi 12 is 3699 yuan, and the hardware configuration parameters are much higher than the third generation of iPhone SE, but the starting price is only 200 yuan higher than the latter.
Therefore, the iPhone SE can only rely more on Apple's product experience and ecosystem to attract Chinese users.
However, according to past statistics, most of the sales of the iPhone SE are in markets outside China, including southeast Asia, India, Latin America and other less developed regions.
In the high-end market, Apple's flagship new machine, the iPhone 13, launched last fall, is still the current sales pillar, but the iPhone 14 may be launched this fall.
These two models will be the key products for Apple's mobile phone to compete for the high-end market this year, but at present, Apple still has no decent opponents in the high-end market.
The M1 Ultra chip drives the MAC upwards
The M1 Ultra is another highlight, or even the biggest highlight, of this Apple launch.
Previously, the outside world speculated that Apple would launch the M2 chip at this conference, and unexpectedly, Apple only pushed the super cup of the M1 series of chips.
The M1 Ultra is Apple's strongest PC chip, but it's essentially assembled from two M1 Max pieces, which is equivalent to 7 times the performance of the M1 chip.
At the same time, Apple also launched a desktop Mac Studio equipped with the M1 Ultra chip. While its performance is improved, it also raises the price of MAC products to new heights: the starting price is 29999 yuan, and the maximum price is 59999 yuan. The M1 Max version of the Mac Studio starts at 14,999 yuan.
In November 2020, Apple unilaterally announced that it would end its 15-year partnership with Intel and launch the first self-developed computer chip M1 built specifically for the Mac. It was called "a historic day in mac" by Cook.
However, Apple did not despair of this cooperation, but gave Intel a 2-year transition period - in the 2 years after that, the Mac computer gradually switched to using Apple's own chips.
So far, the chip transition in the Mac product line is nearing completion, and only the last product, the Mac Pro, is yet to be updated. Market news said that the Mac Pro equipped with the latest chip may be unveiled in June this year.
Previously, Apple's MAC products have benefited a lot from the self-developed chip M1.
In fiscal year 2022 Q1 (calendar year 2021 Q4), Apple's Mac business revenue of $10.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, is the fastest growing of Apple's product lines. In Apple's revenue in this fiscal quarter, MAC contributed 8.8%.
Benefiting from factors such as working from home brought about by the epidemic, the PC market will usher in considerable growth in 2021.
Canalys statistics show that in 2021, global PC shipments exceeded 340 million units, an increase of 15% year-on-year; however, from the fourth quarter of last year, global PC shipment growth has slowed, with a growth rate of only 3.1%.
In this quarter, the mac business exceeded expectations and exceeded the performance of its peers, mainly because of the hot sales of products brought by self-developed chips.
Related analysis believes that with the shipment of self-developed chips on the Mac, Apple's share of the PC market may continue to increase. As MAC chips shift to all self-development, the gross profit margin of this part of the product will also be further improved.
It is foreseeable that the iPhone and MAC, two hardware that account for more than 60% of Apple's revenue, are still Apple's super fighters in 2022.