Depth independent penetration
Li Bin, who has struck the bell four times, has many points of thought.
Author: He Leyi
Editor: Li Jing
Wind product: Shen He Che Yi
Source: Shoucai - Shoujo Institute of Finance and Economics
The three musketeers who built cars finally wanted to reunite with Hong Kong stocks.
On February 28, NIO Group announced that it had applied to the Listing Committee of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for listing in the form of an introduction, which did not involve the issuance and raising of new shares, and planned to be listed for trading on March 10.
Walking through the brink of "bankruptcy" in 2019, tasting the geometric surge in stock prices in 2020, and losing the crown of new forces in 2021... The ups and downs of Weilai have never lacked stories, nor have they ever lacked possibilities.
However, in the face of the aggressive trend of the back wave, Weilai Automobile, which has been spat out that it "can't sell", can make Hong Kong stock investors pay the bill? What changes will the listing of the two places bring to this former new power brother?
1
Bottom of the Three Musketeers
The growth rate is outperforming the big city, what is wrong with the brother
Industry analyst Li Chen said that by introducing the listing of Hong Kong stocks, the investor group can be expanded, while not diluting the interests of existing shareholders, the most important thing is that the time is faster, and the disadvantage is that it cannot bring new funds to Weilai.
The boost in confidence inside and outside is obvious. There's no hurry, it's not going to work.
Looking at sales, NIO delivered 91,429 new cars in 2021, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year. Xiaopeng Automobile reached 98,155 units, 3.6 times that of 2020; ideal cars were 90,491 units, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year, and the gap with Weilai was only about 1,000 units.
Not only is the growth rate of the three musketeers at the bottom, but it also "outperforms" the big market: according to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in 2021 will be 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
In fact, there are signs in the second half of 2021. In July of that year, Weilai's monthly delivery volume was surpassed by Xiaopeng and Ideal for the first time, and since then it has missed the top spot for many consecutive months.
Entering 2022, the situation is still not optimistic. In January sales, Weilai completely fell out of the top three, and the former "Wei Xiaoli" became "Xiaoli". In the overall sales ranking of new energy brands, it even fell out of the top ten.
February sales, again suppressed by ideals, Nezha, Xiaopeng, ranked fourth among the new forces.
What happened to this old big brother?
Li Bin, founder and chairman of Weilai Automobile, admitted in an interview that due to product reasons, sales have outperformed the market, and it is not a small challenge.
In October 2021, due to the upgrading of the production line, WEILAI's sales were pulled down to less than 4,000, and the delivery volume was less than half of Xiaopeng and Ideal.
Although WEIlai claims that the foundry Jacques has expanded its annual production capacity to more than 200,000 vehicles, some media reports have reported that due to the shortage of chips and other components and raw materials, the real production capacity may be discounted.
Even if the production capacity is abundant, the product capacity needs to be considered. Industry analyst Yu Shengmei said that due to the long period of time, the model has not been updated. In the face of the continuous emergence of new products in the market, it is bound to affect consumers' enthusiasm for purchasing.
Of course, Weilai has also made a lot of efforts.
According to the financial report of the third quarter of 2021, the sales, general and administrative expenses of NIO Q3 reached 1,824.9 million yuan, an increase of 94.1% year-on-year and 21.8% month-on-month. Higher than Xiaopeng's 1.538 billion yuan and the ideal 1.02 billion yuan.
During the same period, NIO delivered 24,439 vehicles, 25,666 Xiaopeng Automobile, and 25,116 ideal cars. In other words, NIO spent more money but sold fewer cars.
Also based on this, in Q3 2021, WEILAI's net loss more than doubled to 2.86 billion yuan, far higher than market expectations.
The gross profit margin of vehicle sales fell by 2.3 percentage points month-on-month to 18%, which was not a small gap from Li Bin's target of 25%. You know, the "price butcher" Tesla has achieved a gross profit margin of 30.5% of the whole vehicle.
Sales growth is unfavorable, the scale effect is difficult to break through, and the autonomous driving storm may be "hard to blame".
In August 2021, a NIO owner died in a traffic accident while driving a NIO ES8 car to enable the automatic driving function (NOP pilot assist). Driving data shows that the owner drove a total of 5,960 kilometers of NIO in July, of which 52.2% of the mileage used NOP.
As a result, Weilai was pushed to the cusp of the storm. The uncertainty of safety and autonomous driving technology has been repeatedly discussed. During the period, although 500 car owners jointly signed an open letter in support of Weilai, the split between car owners was further intensified.
Some car owners even complained: "(The joint signature incident) has brought trouble to our ordinary car owners, and people often ask whether the owners of Weilai are the same as the pyramid scheme organization, they really regret dying, and they have lost their faces when they buy this car." ”
There is no conclusive conclusion. To be sure, these distractions are not a plus for valuable consumer confidence.
2
New product controversy High-end stability?
Fortunately, the appearance of new works has boosted a lot of morale. On December 18, 2021, WEILAI officially released the medium-sized intelligent electric coupe ET5, starting at 328,000 yuan and the top version of 386,000 yuan.
The tentacles reach out to the main battlefield of new energy of 200,000-300,000 yuan, which is regarded as a big move to save sales. However, looking around, Tesla Model 3, BYD Han EV, Xiaopeng P7, Extreme Kr 001 and other competitors are also many, and the starting price of Weilai ET5 is still not dominant.
Fortunately, there is no shortage of points in terms of power and endurance: such as 4.3 seconds of zero to 100 km acceleration; 550 km and 700 km of endurance accept the scheduled version; the interior is also equipped with mood lights, standard 7.1.4 Dolby Atmos sound system, large size sky canopy and so on. Li Bin said that ET5 is still the largest order in WEILAI's history.
Indeed, Weilai urgently needs to re-support its sales volume by pushing new ones. "Sales ranking is very important for car companies." Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, said that compared with other car companies, Weilai's sales growth in 2021 is slower. At the same time, the introduction of new products can also alleviate weilai's dependence on the sales of a single product in the past.
Of the 9,652 vehicles delivered in January 2022, the ES6 sold 5,247 units, accounting for 54.4%.
It's just that it's not too early to be happy. Industry analyst Hao Rui said that with the release of ET5, it is necessary to be vigilant against the hidden dangers of "left and right hand fighting". Both ET5 and ET7 models are based on NIO's NT2.0 platform, and there are many similarities between the two.
For example, in terms of power layout, both models have dual motor layouts, and also have three different power battery capacity options of 75kWh, 100kWh and 150kWh, with a maximum cruising range of up to 1000 kilometers; intelligently, the two models also have NAD automatic driving assistance system and supersensitive system AQUILA, supercomputing platform ADAM. So much so that ET5 has been called a "scaled-down version of ET7" by some public opinion.
Compared with ET7, ET5 is nearly 120,000 yuan cheaper, will such a pricing strategy be accepted by old car owners? Will it hurt a thousand enemies and inflict eight hundred self-inflicted wounds?
In this regard, Li Bin's reply is intriguing: "Two children in the family, who has a job can do it." Weilai President Qin Lihong admitted that some users who booked ET7 hesitated normally, "The vast majority of ET5 orders are still from new users who have not bought any NIO products. ”
The problem is that the market is the smartest, and customers aren't stupid. Is low price and high allocation conducive to the development of WEILAI's internal product system?
What is the impact on the high-end image of painstaking management?
You know, high-end is the main label of Weilai. In 2021, although the overall sales volume is not good, the market share of high-end electric vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan in China is 40.8%, ranking first; according to global authoritative agency data, from January to November 2021, the global high-end electric vehicles (MSRP more than 50,000 US dollars) sales ranking, Weilai ranked in the top two.
Li Bin once said: "If you are buying a car, you are not just buying a car, but a ticket to a new lifestyle." ”
All along, WEI HAS BEEN POSITIONED AS "LUXURY" AND "SERVICE". In the early stage, the focus is on research and development and model expansion, and in the later stage, it pays attention to the luxury pattern of the NIO brand and the service experience of customers.
So, when Weilai has not yet reached the BBA value level and brand influence, does it have enough courage to complete the brand exploration?
"Weilai is now taking the same route as Tesla, first high-end and then mid-range." Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, said that although WEILAI is positioned as a luxury brand, its strategy will be similar to that of traditional fuel brands such as BBA, and it will be laid out in each market segment; at the same time, new technologies such as solid-state batteries and lidar will be used to improve product competitiveness and open up the market.
The vision is exciting enough, how difficult is it to practice?
3
Loss of more than 27 billion, subsidies withdrew
How good is the mobile phone business?
Not only the price is down, Weilai may also have new business moves.
According to 36Kr, Weilai has begun to "hands-on" mobile phones, and former Meitu mobile phone president Yin Shuijun has joined.
It is reported that weilai's mobile phone research and development department in Shenzhen has acted frequently, issuing more than 100 new offers years later, and continuing to add more than 200 research and development positions in Shenzhen.
In response, WEI responded that "there is no information to disclose."
Car companies cross the mobile phone industry, there is a certain reasonable logic. Industry analyst Lin Yong said that in the smart car industry, more efficient, more intelligent and safer car-machine interconnection is the goal that all car companies are pursuing, and the combination of smart cars + smart phones may become a trend of car-machine collaboration.
"For Weilai, touching mobile phone hardware is not only a supplement to its own ecology, but also a thing that must be done to improve user experience."
In September 2021, Geely caused a heated discussion for cross-border mobile phones.
As the key bridge of Li Shufu's "Internet of Everything", mobile phones have been mentioned to the height of strategic development, spending 10 billion yuan on layout, and rumors are interested in acquiring Meizu.
Look at Li Bin's entrepreneurial "obsession", the mobile phone is not abrupt.
Looking back on his past career, this great god has built a huge "travel empire". Through his personal, easy car and NIO capital, Li Bin has invested in dozens of travel-related companies, including Star Projects such as Dida, Mobike, Chehejia, Uxin Used Car, and Daily Car, covering auto e-commerce, vehicle manufacturing, automotive aftermarket, automotive peripheral services, mobile travel and other segments. As an emerging medium, mobile phones are the best serializers for the above business chains.
It's just, after all, interlaced like a mountain. Starting from scratch requires courage, but also technical genes and deep financial resources.
Building a mobile phone is no less "burning money" than building a car. According to public information, Huawei spent about 40 billion yuan on research and development in the mobile phone business in 2018; Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun also revealed that Xiaomi's research and development investment reached 10 billion yuan in 2020.
And that's just the R&D expense. Compared with Geely's acquisition of Meizu's "take-ism", Weilairuo's "from 0 to 1" will undoubtedly face greater challenges.
Looking at the financial situation, how much room is left: According to the Hong Kong stock prospectus, from 2018 to the first three quarters of 2021, NIO's net losses were 9.639 billion yuan, 11.2957 billion yuan, 5.3041 billion yuan and 1.8735 billion yuan, respectively. In less than four years, the loss exceeded 27 billion yuan. Although the reduction in losses in the past two years is worthy of recognition, it is still far from being truly profitable.
NIO said it expects to continue to make significant investments in research and development, sales and service, as well as investments in capacity expansion, to further develop and expand its business, which may not be timely or completely unable to increase revenue or cash flow.
In other words, there are many places to spend money.
Looking at the withdrawal of new energy vehicles, the industry will also usher in an important turning point in 2022: the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
Undoubtedly, the new energy car circle that has been rolled in, the competition will be more white-edged. What kind of waves can be made in the mobile phone market because the sales volume is overtaken?
Moreover, the mobile phone business is also not very fragrant. On the one hand, the product is crazy and rolled up to bring faster iteration; on the other hand, the homogenization of products brings weak market sales. According to IDC data, between 2016 and 2021, China's smartphone shipments showed a downward trend year by year, from 467 million units to 300 million units.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, believes that the smart phone market has become saturated, and it has become increasingly difficult to find new mobile phone ecological content and benefit growth points, but many existing customers of mobile phones are potential incremental customers of automotive products.
Industry analyst Li Chen believes that car companies do mobile phones more like defensive logic. In the face of surging cross-border new players, the whole ecosystem will be a crucial point of competition.
In short, "attacking the hinterland" with mobile phone companies seems to be a choice that Weilai has to make. But how to ensure that a new world of synergy is created, rather than adding a new burden of loss and development? The same is a serious thought.
4
Grow passwords
Get back a brother in glory
Li Bin once mentioned in an interview: "I don't understand why there are still people buying gas trucks." Aside from being able to smell gasoline, I can't really think of anything good. "Buying a fuel car is like buying a mechanical watch, it is more of a feeling.
This high-profile self-confidence has been complained by some netizens as a modern version of "why not eat meat paste".
It's hard to say who's right and who's wrong.
To be sure, the tide of the electrification era has become unstoppable, and the counterattack of traditional car companies has become increasingly fierce. How Xiaopeng explained the secondary listing: do a good job in capital, technology and talent reserves to meet the strongest "battle" in the history of smart cars in 2023.
Presumably, Weilai, which is lagging behind in sales, has a sense of this crisis. Happily, despite the above growth pain points, fortunately, the two have never stopped improving and improving their steps.
In terms of R&D investment, in the first three quarters of 2021, WEILAI has invested more than 2.7 billion yuan in R&D expenses, and is expected to invest 5 billion yuan in R&D throughout the year. As of December 31, 2021, NIO has more than 15,000 employees, including 4,809 R&D personnel.
In terms of new products, according to the plan, three new models based on the NT2.0 technology platform will be delivered in 2022. Among them, NIO's first medium- and large-scale intelligent electric flagship sedan ET7 will start delivery on March 28; the medium-sized intelligent electric coupe ET5 released at the end of last year is expected to start delivery in September 2022.
In addition, Weilai President Qin Lihong revealed that in mid-April, another medium-sized SUV ES7 will be released, and the comfort will be more extreme, and it will be delivered within this year.
In terms of user experience, in order to give users the same energy supplementary experience as fuel vehicles, WEILAI established Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd. in 2020. BaaS battery rental service, power exchange mode and other systems have enhanced the driving experience of many users.
It is not difficult to see that Weilai is also carrying the weight forward, and there is no lack of overturning confidence. This resilience and sensitivity of not accepting defeat and continuing to rise is also the code of its all the way through thorns and thorns, laughing at honor and disgrace.
Li Bin's cognition is sober, as he said: whether it is the leading brand or the brand that has fallen behind, this qualifier has not yet reached the end. "You can never say the danger is over."
Indeed, it was a marathon. A momentary succession is not a success or failure, the key is to continue to rise.
In the prospectus, the "Risk Factor Tips" is 87 pages long. NIO said that the company still lacks the ability and operation experience to develop and manufacture high-quality and attractive models on schedule and on a large scale. 2022 is also the year when supply chain capabilities are tested the most since its inception.
At the beginning of 2022, Nezha Automobile opened a Pre-IPO round of financing with a target valuation of about 45 billion yuan, and its main body, Hezhong Automobile, was also exposed to officially launch a Hong Kong stock listing plan; at the same time, Zero Run Automobile also joined the IPO camp, plus WM Motors, which did push-ups in front of the science and technology innovation board, a new listing wave is on the way.
Consumers and investors are not short of choice, what core competitiveness does Weilai have, and what makes the two pay? Why get back the glory of a brother? Li Bin, who is about to ring the bell for the fourth time, has a lot to think about.
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