【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author and reproduced from the public account "Uncle Ming Miscellaneous Talk".
1) The outbreak of the war in Ukraine was an epoch-making event that meant the end of the "post-Cold War" era. This is a Jedi counterattack made by Russia after being forced into a corner by the US-led NATO. After Russia's negotiating demands were almost rejected by the United States in December 2021, the war was already on the arrow. At the same time that Russia has deployed hundreds of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border, the United States is also ready. Even from a certain point of view, although the United States has repeatedly opposed war, it may be eager for Russia to go to war in its heart. Because once Russia goes to war, the United States can define Russia as an "aggressor" and then impose on Russia with sustained, severe sanctions. In this way, the United States can play a good hand of cards of "using Ukraine to control Russia" and "controlling Europe because of Russia." The question now is, can Russia jump out of this "trap" that the United States has laid for Russia? What impact will all this have on China?
2) The biggest challenge facing Russia now is how to make a quick decision and force Ukraine to sign the "Alliance Under the City". Some media reporters have feedback from the front that the current war in Russia is not as smooth as imagined. The two sides are currently fighting in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, in the east and south. As the front line was stretched too long, the logistical supply of the Russian army began to face challenges. In the case that the United States and other NATO countries do not directly participate in the war, There will be no accidents that Russia "takes" Ukraine. But for Russia, the sooner the war ends, the less cost and cost Russia will pay. At this moment, the United States has begun to provide military assistance to Ukraine again, including funds and weapons. Even Germany, which has always been restrained, has begun to supply Ukraine with anti-tank weapons. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy refused to surrender or go into exile, constantly inspiring Ukrainian soldiers and civilians to fight, and even encouraging anti-Russian foreigners to enter Ukraine to fight. All of this is complicating the situation. Once this war becomes a protracted war, a war of attrition, it will be a continuous process of "blood loss" for Russia. It is believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin has given full consideration to this.
3) Immediately after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the United States rallied the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union to launch sanctions against Russia, including the implementation of the so-called "nuclear project" to kick some Russian financial institutions out of the International Settlement System of the Association for Financial Telecommunications of Global Interbanks (SWIFT). Many in China worry that Russia will "collapse" under the continued pressure of the United States and its allies. Because people with a little international common sense know that once Russia "collapses," it will be very unfavorable to China's position in the "strategic triangle" between China and the United States and Russia. I believe that many people have a consensus that the United States cannot easily bring Down Russia and then concentrate on dealing with China.
4) Will Russia "collapse"? The key depends on how you define "collapse." If you understand "collapse" as the collapse of the Russian national economy, domestic turmoil, or even putin's eventual removal from power, it seems unlikely at present. But if you think that Russia can easily pass the test in the face of heavy U.S. sanctions, this is certainly unrealistic. Next, I would like to share the difficulties and challenges facing Russia under US sanctions, and what the prospects for Russia's future national development are. Words from the family, for reference only.
5) Sanctions by the United States and its allies will certainly make Russia feel "painful", but on the whole, Putin has fully considered this before starting a war. Some people in China are influenced by the US media and think that Putin is a "madman" and a "demon", which is complete nonsense. As one of the most important leaders on the international stage for more than two decades, Putin must be rational and pragmatic in nature. Since he has chosen to use military action to "settle the general account" with the United States and NATO on the Ukraine issue, he will certainly think clearly about what kind of retaliation and sanctions the United States will take after taking this action. If it is determined that the retaliation and sanctions of the United States will make Russia "destroy the country", he will definitely not be angry. Putin is very personal, and on issues involving Russia's major national interests, once he makes a move, he will never go short. This can be seen clearly from the quelling of the Chechen rebellion in 2000, the launch of the South Ossetia War in 2008, and the takeover of Crimea in 2014. From Russia's point of view, there must be a prejudgment that once Russia takes military action against Ukraine, the United States will definitely sanction, and sanctions will definitely make Russia pay a price. But in contrast to russia's continued quest for perfection, russia is clearly willing to bear and can afford to suffer a loss of national interests and a sense of national humiliation.
6) Contrary to many people's intuition, the sanctions currently launched by the United States and its allies are far from "severe" enough, and far from the point where Russia can be "destroyed". As a diplomatic and political tool, sanctions have a limited role, and countries such as Iran and North Korea, which have been sanctioned by the United States for many years, will certainly be difficult to develop well, but they will not collapse for a while and a half. For Russia, its economic volume and structure are not comparable to those of Iran and North Korea, and Russia's ability to carry US sanctions is much stronger. Take the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union kicking Russia out of SWIFT, and everyone must be clear that this is not a brain ban, but only selected some Russian financial institutions for sanctions. In other words, the United States and its allies have not completely locked Russia's ties to the international financial system. The main reason for this is that the EU is too dependent on Russia's energy supply. This would make any sanctions a "double-edged sword", and although Russia will not receive foreign exchange for energy exports, the EU will not be able to obtain Russia's energy supply.
7) After the end of the "Cold War", although the United States did not sincerely help Russia embark on the path of "freedom and prosperity", the economic ties between European countries and Russia have developed considerably. The EU is Russia's largest trading partner, with exports to the EU accounting for 37% of Russia's total exports in 2020. About 70 percent of Russia's natural gas and 50 percent of its oil exports are sold to the European Union. From the EU's perspective, it relies about a third on Russian oil and about 40 percent on Russian gas. Among them, Germany relies more than 60% on Russian gas, Poland more than 50%, hungary even more than 90%. There is absolutely no way for the EU not to cripple itself while killing Russia. That's why, so far, the sanctions launched by the United States, EU countries and other countries have not imposed undifferentiated restrictions on Russia's energy exports. In 2020, energy exports account for 15% of Russia's GDP, and related revenues account for 40% of Russia's budget revenues. The most effective blow against Russia is to sanction its energy industry, but precisely because the EU is highly dependent on Russia's energy supply, it is difficult for the EU to play this set of "seven wounds" that hurt others and hurt itself, and the United States has to take care of the interests of the EU. The chart below shows the dependence of some EU countries on Russian gas, the black line is the EU average, and the shadow part is the respective situation of EU countries.
8) In 2014, russia took over Crimea, and the then U.S. Obama administration imposed a lot of sanctions on Russia, making the Russian economy suffer. The United States used its financial hegemony to plunge the Russian ruble's exchange rate, exacerbating the risk of capital flight and inflationary pressures facing Russia. This, coupled with falling oil prices, is even worse for Russia, which relies heavily on energy exports. Both Russia's total GDP in dollar terms and the daily lives of ordinary people have declined. Since then, Russia has not been idle, and has been working out a plan called "Russia Fotress", the core of which is how to ensure that Russia can survive in the face of extreme U.S. sanctions. Russia has also established its own interbank clearing system for potentially kicking Russia out of SWFIT, but this system is currently mainly used in Russia. Under the "Russian Fortress" program, Russia has accumulated $630 billion in foreign exchange and gold reserves in case of emergency. The Central Bank of Russia can use its foreign exchange reserves to support the ruble exchange rate, make up for the government budget deficit and carry out domestic livelihood and construction expenditures. In fact, if the United States and its allies carry out a precise strike against the Russian central bank, it may hurt Russia even more at this stage.
9) For Russia, there is actually a combined "toolkit" to counter US sanctions at the moment. This includes the deep binding with the EU on energy issues, the "Russian Fortress" plan, and so on. According to US media analysis, Russia still has two dependencies in the face of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies: First, Russia's asymmetric capabilities in "cyber warfare". The U.S. government itself has warned that Russia has implanted Trojans in critical infrastructure such as the U.S. power grid. Now there are also fears in the United States that if Russia is pushed into a hurry, it will launch a cyberattack and paralyze the critical infrastructure of the United States. In 2021, Colonial Pipeline, the largest U.S. fuel pipeline operator, was hit by a cyberattack that caused fuel supply problems in many parts of the U.S. East Coast, and 17 states and Washington, D.C., entered a state of emergency. The power of "cyber warfare" can be seen here. Of course, the United States has also implanted Trojan horses in Russia's critical infrastructure, but in any case, once the two countries start the process of "mutual harm", they must end up losing both. Second, Russia and China have established a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era, which gives Russia a key alternative to sanctions from the United States and its allies. Theoretically, China, as the world's number one industrial power, has the major industrial and consumer goods that Russia needs, depending on how far the US sanctions will be imposed. China began establishing a cross-border bank payment system (CIPS) that bypasses SWFIT in 2015. By the end of 2020, through direct and indirect participation, the actual business of CIPS can reach more than 3,300 corporate banking institutions in 171 countries and regions around the world, and the cumulative volume of cross-border RMB business processed by the RMB cross-border payment system has reached 2.2049 million, an increase of 17.0% over 2019. To some extent, China's CIPS, through the Ukraine crisis, will be given a chance to test. As Russia's comprehensive strategic cooperative partner, China has many common interests with Russia, and China will certainly safeguard these interests. At the same time, As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China, as a global "manufacturing plant" and "consumer market", also has sufficient means to safeguard these interests.
10) After the War in Ukraine, the global geopolitics and world pattern will undergo profound changes. The rift in Europe will deepen further, Russia's dream of integration into the West will break down, and Russia's needs and dependence on China will rise significantly. At the same time, the United States has repeatedly weaponized the "dollar hegemony", which will inevitably promote the implementation of "de-dollarization" in all countries in the world, and the internationalization of the renminbi will usher in new opportunities in the global geopolitical turmoil. In the "strategic triangle" between China and the United States and Europe, the United States will have to "fight on two fronts" in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. After the Ukraine crisis, the United States will not be able to spend a lot of strategic resources on Russia, which is a good thing for China no matter how it looks at it. Contrary to the perception of some people in China, China has not given up the strategy of Taoguang and obscurity, and it can even be said that China is currently implementing a higher level of Taoguang and obscurity strategy. After the United States identified China as the biggest strategic competitor, China had to face the overall situation of the Sino-US game, but China did not compete and showdown with the United States in an all-round way, in a sense, since 2016, China has not taken the initiative to provoke in Sino-US relations, for China, if Sino-US competition is inevitable, then we will push back the more favorable the time of the showdown. For the United States, on the one hand, Russia has become an urgent problem that must be dealt with, on the other hand, China has not launched a major provocation against the United States, and it will be inevitable that part of the strategic resources of the United States will be transferred to Europe. So I insist that the three years from the outbreak of the war in Ukraine to the end of Biden's term will be a "period of small strategic opportunity" for China's development. We must seize it, use it well, and build up the strength to deal with the "Trump 2.0" challenge after 2024.
Finally, I would like to say that as a Chinese, when we look at international issues, we must not only have a basic concept of right and wrong, but also adhere to the supremacy of China's national interests. Russia's special military operation against Ukraine has a very complex background, and we cannot simply look at it with "anti-war" and "humanitarian" thinking. If you say that you are a person first and a Chinese second, then I would like to tell you that at the critical moment of the Sino-US game, if China's interests are lost, every Chinese will have to pay a heavy price, so don't commit the "childish disease of Wenqing". Diplomacy and international politics is a highly professional thing, so let professional people do professional things, and laymen should not talk too much. At this moment, as an individual, the best choice is not to engage in "nest fighting", that is, to seriously understand, comprehend and support China's foreign policy, because China's foreign policy is used to defend China's national interests, and China's national interests are inseparable from the personal interests of each of us. For Russia, to get to this point today, it is actually very "tragic". But at this moment, in the face of the tight pressure of the United States and NATO, Putin has no better choice. The fundamental problem facing Russia remains its inability to effectively address national development issues. In all the resource countries in the world, the ceiling for development is very low, and Russia is no exception. We should be thankful that we live in China, and we should thank generation after generation of self-improvement Chinese who have finally found a path of national independence, national prosperity and strength, and people's happiness. What we have to do is to continue to walk along this road, not toss and turn, not to be consumed, until the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is truly realized. Let's work together!