1. Russian trader Gerasimov and Gerasimov theory
2. The practice of Gerasimov's theory in the Crimean crisis and the Syrian battlefield
3. Russia is no longer a large-scale army, but a local-war army
4. The risk of war in Ukraine is basically controllable, and the long-term strategic gains make Russia ecstatic
Pugin was a strategist, and he decided to do it or not, and on ukraine he decided to do it. The decision was implemented by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Russian Army Chief of The General Staff and First Deputy Minister of Defense Gerasimov. Shoigu studied economics, and the real operator of Russian military operations was actually Gerasimov.
After 2012, the Russian military began military reform, responsible for the specific matters of military reform is also Gerasimov, based on the theoretical basis is named after him "Gerasimov Theory", the core of which is to focus on future wars, make full use of science and technology, media, intelligence, politics, diplomacy, humanitarian assistance and other strategies, with the least cost to obtain the greatest benefits in the war. According to Gerasimov, the ratio of non-military means to military means in modern warfare is about 4:1. This military reform in Russia is the 9th major military reform in Russian history, which began with Ivan the Terrible.
Pugin ordered Shoigu and Gerasimov to shift the strategic deterrent to a combat mission mode
Gerasimov's theory came from his reflections on the war in Chechnya. A native of the Republic of Tatarstan, he graduated from the Tank Corps Command School in Kazan City, and his professional ability was relatively outstanding, starting from tank platoon commander and gradually rising to the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army. His prestige reached its peak in the Second Chechen War, when the troops he commanded were the first to march to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. Gerasimov's specialty was fighting in large corps based on the mechanization of tank clusters, but after entering chechnya lanes, he found that the original military theory was invalid, the tank group could not be used in the city at all, the Chechen militants relied on the city buildings to disappear without a trace, and the war was extremely brutal. After the war, Gerasimov summed up the war profoundly and meticulously, and gradually formed his theory.
2. The practice of Gerasimov's theory in the Crimean crisis and the Battlefield in Syria
Soon, history gave Gerasimov the opportunity to test the success of the reforms. In 2014, Russia took Crimea almost without bloodshed. In this conflict, Russia's rapid action completely broke the Western stereotype of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian army is no longer a "fool", Russia quickly rescued the democratically elected president of Ukraine, Yanukovych, and then successfully recaptured Crimea, and then Russia supported the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in the form of assistance.
Crimea, which had been incorporated into Russia during the reign of Catherine II, was finally back.
Worship the European monarchs under Catherine's red dress
Russia's propaganda in this conflict was so brilliant that he succeeded in ingalitating Crimean Russians to their homeland and their distrust of the Kiev regime. Russia concentrated its popular fire on the Bandra Nazis. Russia's special forces also moved very quickly, quickly encircling Ukraine's military bases in Crimea and then giving Crimea a referendum on independence in the democratic way that the West has advocated for years. At that time, Russia's diplomacy was also successful, and although Europe and the United States were shocked, their sanctions were still weak. The support rate of the Russian public for Pujin has also increased significantly.
The boldness and delicacy of Pugin and his team is amazing.
Of course, this conflict also has regrets, I don't know whether it is to take into account the upcoming Winter Olympics in Russia or whether Russia is not fully prepared, Pujin did not take advantage of the victory to pursue and expand the results. In fact, Russia missed the best opportunity to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. You're not ready, and neither are your enemies; you're ready, but your enemies are ready. In the next 8 years, Ukraine has made a lot of preparations, purged pro-Russians in the army, built defensive facilities, actively prepared for war, etc., resulting in Russia's special military operations this year not as smooth as 8 years ago.
The European country of the prosthetic licking eagle
In 2015, the Syrian war broke out, and Gerasimov's tactics shined here. First of all, on the eve of Russia's military dispatch, we saw a false snake in Russian diplomacy, one moment unable to say anything, one moment saying that it would be resolved peacefully, the next moment resolutely denying it, and then suddenly one day, a large number of Russian warplanes appeared at the Syrian air base, completely confusing the US and NATO intelligence agencies.
After the intervention of the Russian army, the Russian media exerted full horsepower and carried out overwhelming public opinion propaganda. "Syria today, Russia tomorrow." The action greatly encouraged the patriotic enthusiasm and national pride of the Russian people. In particular, Russia attaches particular importance to the supervision and guidance of public opinion on new media that are popular with young people in this operation. So after the outbreak of this ukrainian war, I really don't worry that public opinion in Russia will have an accident, on the contrary, it will become a high-scoring patriotic education for the Pugin government.
Specific to the military level, Russia is also unambiguous, unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare, new aircraft, unmanned combat vehicles, etc., both eye-catching and full of effect. In this Russian street battle in Mariupol, I have not found the shadow of the unmanned chariot, perhaps the scale of the war is too large? Maybe it hasn't been reported yet? In this battle, Russia used the tactic of killing chickens and monkeys, using high-precision missiles, ground-penetrating bombs, laser-guided bombs, and terminal bombs to strike terrorists and show the strength of the Russian army to potential opponents. This was also used in the War of Ukraine, such as the use of hypersonic missiles to attack the Ukrainian ammunition depots, which was for the United States and NATO.
When the military operation was effective, Russia was in a good position, and Pugin suddenly announced its withdrawal. This cross-border war heralded the beginning of Russia's serious illness and the return of the fighting nation.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Shoigu and Gerasimov, who spoke with Pujin, were accompanied by other military personnel
Since Pudkin's special military operations, I think Russia's targets have been gradually decreasing. Pugin said at the beginning that Russia has no plans to occupy Ukraine, and I think this statement is sincere, because Russia really does not have the strength to occupy such a large country, and the cost of Russian domination of western Ukraine will be very, very high, and there is a strong anti-Russian sentiment there. So, I think the highest strategic goal of Russia at the beginning was to force the Kiev regime to surrender, and then sign the alliance under the city.
But the war did not go well, and Russia's plan to withdraw its troops from Kiev and Chernihiv in the name of releasing goodwill, reorganize its forces, and concentrate its efforts on the settlement of Russia's eastern and southern Ukraine is taking place.
The siege of Kiev is worth savoring, militarily it was a failure, but strategically, it did attract a lot of Ukrainian energy in the early stages of the war. I think the siege of Kiev is an attempt at Gerasimov tactics, and the expectation of quickly dismantling the morale of the Ukrainian government is counterproductive. However, the rapid withdrawal of troops also shows from another perspective that the Russian army is now flexible, not stubborn, and quickly corrected.
"Great is not as good as before" and "military reform failed" are now a common view of the performance of the Russian army. But I think that view is unfair. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's strength fell off a cliff, and the strategic objectives of the Russian army were fundamentally adjusted; the Russian army as a whole shifted from strategic offensive to strategic contraction and defense; greatly reduced the military scale and improved the army structure; gave full play to the residual heat of Soviet military weapons, actively developed the latest and most advanced weapons, and gradually and focused on the future; and changed from a large-scale army to a local war-type army.
President Putin with a full aura
So we see that Russia is at ease with Crimea and Syria, but it is not satisfactory in the war in Ukraine. Why? This is due to the current positioning of the Russian army. Ukraine is also a medium-sized country, with a land area of 600,000 square kilometers (equivalent to the size of 16 TW), a population of more than 40 million, inheriting a large number of weapons and equipment and military factories in the Soviet era, although it is getting worse, after all, the skinny camel is bigger than the horse. The Russian army does not have the strength to fight a war of annihilation, and I think That Pugin and his team are also very clear, so I say that Pugin said at the beginning that he did not have plans to occupy Ukraine and change the regime in Ukraine.
Then, on that basis, let's look at what Russia did.
Economically, Russia succeeded in stopping the economic blitzkrieg between the United States and Europe, The Pushin counteroffensive was also aggressive, natural gas had to be settled in rubles, and other general commodities such as grain that had to be expanded were settled in rubles, the ruble exchange rate returned to pre-war levels, and prices in Russia did not fluctuate significantly.
Diplomatically, Russia has successfully divided the EU with the natural gas it has, and, in addition to the West, the rest of the world has remained basically neutral, especially in large economies such as China and India.
In terms of public opinion, the Russian media, mainly RT television, have fully demonstrated their authority and are much more serious than those in the West, so people who carefully observe this war will take the news released by Russia as a reference; internally, Russia actively guides, in Putin's words: I have not seen us so united for a long time. The vast majority of the Russian public understands Phukin's military actions.
Intelligence-wise, Russia is highly strategically secretive, and even the Russian Duma congressman does not know what Pugin's goals are, only that the war is being carried out in strict accordance with Pugin's plan, and russian fighters have shown serious military discipline; I have reason to believe that Kadyrov's high-profile social performances are intentional.
Humanitarianly, Russia has triumphed over Ukraine, and we see the anger of the liberated inhabitants of Mariupol against Ukraine.
Militarily, for example, Russia used a dagger hypersonic missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, and even the Americans said that we have no way to intercept such a missile, which means that the United States will never have a direct conflict with Russia.
So, I tend to think that Russia's strategy and tactics in Ukraine were successful, and I think they did a very good job in the limited range of capabilities class.
4. The risk of war is basically controllable, and the long-term strategic gains make Russia ecstatic
Russia has gained and lost in this war. However, although the war is not over, we can expect that the neutralization of Ukraine is certain, the war potential of Ukraine has been greatly weakened, and the de-militarization of Ukraine has been very successful, even a little deindustrialization.
For a country, the most important thing is people, and then the land. Russia will have at least access to the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson regions, which are important industrial and food-producing regions of Ukraine. Known as the "bread basket," Kherson makes up 22 percent of Ukraine's agricultural land. So these places are the essence of Ukraine, and these places can carry a population of 10 million to 20 million. This is Russia's greatest gain.
Russia is redeploying, targeting eastern and southern Ukraine
In addition, Russia's potential targets include Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Nikolaiv Oblast and Odessa Oblast, etc. Industry and agriculture of Nikolayev Oblast are also the essence of Ukraine, and Odessa Oblast has been regarded by Russia since 1792 as a pearl on the Black Sea. Russia has not yet blown up the Southern Ukrainian Machinery Factory (where Ukraine produces strategic missiles and rockets), and I don't think Russia is without ideas. If this idea comes true, Ukraine will sadly become a landlocked agrarian state, and Zelenskiy will be deeply aware of the serious consequences of betraying Russia. The foundation of Russia's re-emergence will be stronger, and the Idea of Emasculating Russia in the West will be broken here, and Ukraine is Russia's GW.
In conclusion, I think that Russia's special military operations have been very successful. The West has used almost everything except military means, and the risks now seem to be largely manageable; the long-term strategic benefits of this military operation are ecstatic to the Russians.