【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author himself to be published exclusively and originally, and reprinted from the public account "Kuzhi Jiaotong University". The author is Wang Gaigai, founder and dean of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank (GDYT), and the director of the "China Diplomatic Risk Assessment" project of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank.
Who orchestrated the War in Ukraine? What exactly is the truth? There is growing evidence that the U.S. behavior in this incident was very strange and abnormal. From before the outbreak of the war, to the initial stage, to the current stalemate, the behavior of the United States has been inconsistent, and the Biden administration has laid a trap of interlocking links. To that end, China should put its mind to chances and its diplomatic strategy should be adjusted, with a focus on exposing U.S. conspiracies. Doing so will not only allow the people of the world to understand the truth, ease Sino-European relations, and consolidate Sino-Russian relations, but also make China's diplomacy take the initiative.
The United States has set a trap for Russia
Previously, there have been authoritative views in China that have carried out meticulous reasoning, believing that Russia has fallen into the trap set by the United States. This view is logical, but it is still only at the level of reasoning, and it is necessary to provide evidence from the factual level, especially a detailed analysis of the various strange actions of the United States before and after the outbreak of war. The time period can be divided into three parts:
(1) Before the Russian army assembled after Biden came to power;
(2) after the russian army assembled before the outbreak of war;
(3) Since the outbreak of war.
After Biden took office, the United States took advantage of Ukrainian public opinion to create contradictions between Russia and Ukraine. In the Obama and Trump era, NATO has been shelving Ukraine's NATO application. Obama's policy is appeasement-oriented, supplemented by isolation. It would be wiser to do so, on the one hand, to ease Russia's security dilemma and avoid pushing it into a corner, and on the other hand, to win over relations with European countries, but not to go to war. Trump had wanted to ease relations with Russia, but his domestic policy toward Russia largely continued Obama's.
But, starting last fall, Biden adopted a sinister policy. On the one hand, he provoked and provoked Ukrainian nationalism, twice promising Zelensky that the United States would speed up the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO, but he did not pay lip service; on the other hand, he indulged Russia and induced Russia to apply the Crimean experience to Donetsk and Luhansk. Biden's approach is a bit like the British and French policy of appeasement against Germany during World War II, stimulating the Germans to be retaliatory but not blocking, except that at that time, Britain and France did not take the initiative to plan but a wrong strategy, this time the United States was actively planned, in order to finally induce Russia and Europe to fight each other and reap the benefits.
In the second phase, after January 2022, the United States and its allies continued to play up Russia's military build-up and movements. Although the United States claims to have accurate intelligence, in fact the United States does not have any intelligence, which is completely rendered by itself. The United States is doing this to make the world think that Putin is about to send troops, so as to pull Putin into the water. Once Putin repents, then he will lose face. On the one hand, the United States provides weapons to Ukraine, and on the other hand, it hints to Putin that it will not block Russia's military operations, showing a peaceful posture. Doing so led to a misjudgment by Putin, who thought the story of the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and the Crimean war in 2014 would be repeated and that the West would not intervene.
The United States used Europe to reap the benefits
In the third stage, after the outbreak of war, the United States tried to maintain the war between Russia and Ukraine, unwilling to see the peace talks between the two sides succeed. Russia has advanced rapidly on the battlefield three times. Every time the United States saw this, it immediately asked Zelenskiy to negotiate peace, with the aim of delaying time. The United States has lowered Zelenskiy's expectations by refusing to set up a no-fly zone.
However, every time the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks were effective, the United States immediately announced an increase in military assistance to Ukraine, with the aim of increasing Zelenskiy's confidence in order to undermine the peace talks. Such a game will continue to be repeated for some time in the future. In fact, the United States does not want to be involved in the war at all, as long as the United States is not involved in the war, NATO will not have a war with Russia. As for Russia's nuclear threat and the U.S. warning to Russia, both sides are acting on the basis of calculating each other's bottom line.
Recently, Europeans have realized that they are caught up in the vortex of war and have been exploited by the Americans. Professor Xiang Lanxin analyzed from a European perspective, Professor Xiang has been working in Europe for a long time, and he must have obtained relevant first-hand materials before he dared to make such a bold analysis.
The European Union is beginning to realize that Biden's version of "America First" is working. The United States has vigorously urged the European Union to participate in energy sanctions and drastically reduce its dependence on Energy from Russia in order to reshuffle the global energy market after the war, and the Current Us share of the European energy market is very small.
If the war continues for a long time, refugee flows will hit EU countries hard, increasing the far-right populist forces in Europe, and the energy crisis has the potential to cause a recession. In the next step, the EU will ignore the objections of the United States and may invite China to mediate.
Biden wants to delay the war until November
The Big Diplomatic Think Tank (GDYT) released a report on the 3rd of this month, "The Real Beneficiaries of the War in Ukraine: Biden and the Democratic Party." It now appears that the report's analysis is still valid.
The war in Ukraine has diverted public attention and increased the Democratic Party's ability to manipulate various agendas. The war is extremely favorable to the Democratic Party's midterm elections and can repair the image of an incompetent president since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The battle lifted Biden's polls by nearly 10 percentage points. If the war can continue into the midterm elections, then Trump's "America First" ideology will be effectively suppressed. The United States has been plagued by bipartisan differences over the past 10 years, and this tension in the "polarization" struggle is now expected to ease. The Ukraine crisis will reinvigorate mainstream American values, which Biden cannot ask for.
Trump would have been in the limelight, but his isolationist, ultra-conservative ideas are sure to become less popular because of the war in Ukraine. Trump's indifference to European affairs during his presidency has led to resentment among the European people. Russia's attack on Ukraine has made the Western world a common enemy, and now the number of people in the United States who dare to openly support Trump will be greatly reduced. The war in Ukraine will also affect the balance of power within the Republican Party, the anti-Trump forces will increase, and the Republican establishment will regain influence.
Biden provoked the relationship between The Mainland and Taiwan and repeated the old tricks of Beijing
On the Taiwan Strait issue, Biden has constantly slandered China and portrayed China as a "public enemy of the world" in order to mobilize allies to take sides. The United States is hyping up Chinese mainland the so-called "threat" to Taiwan, and the Americans know very well that Beijing cannot attack Taiwan for the time being, but they still insist on portraying China as an "aggressor" like Russia. According to the analysis of an authoritative professor in Taiwan, the United States is "drawing gourds like this" to create an atmosphere in which the PLA's armed reunification is eager to try, and it will be easy to win the trust of allies.
The American calculation is to let the war between Russia and Ukraine stick for a long time, and at the same time let the contradictions between the mainland and Taiwan stick for a long time. The United States also supplies weapons to Ukraine and Taiwan; the CIA trains Ukraine to fight street warfare, and now it is constantly pressuring Taiwan to step up the mobilization of people to train in street warfare.
According to public reports, U.S. military experts are studying how to enhance Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities. This time, the United States provided asymmetric weapons and information warfare weapons to the Ukrainian army and civilians, which actually had a certain effect. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jessica Lewis also said at the hearing that the United States continues to urge Taiwan to purchase asymmetric systems, to offset China's military superiority, and Taiwan should focus on enhancing its asymmetric military capabilities rather than acquiring more traditional weapons. Lewis said Taiwan is currently working with the U.S. National Guard on the development of the National Defense Mobilization Program.
China should take the measures into account and resolutely expose the US conspiracy
If the Russo-Ukrainian war continues for a long time, it will certainly be detrimental to Russia, let alone to China. We know that the military strength of the United States is very strong, but the war in Iraq and Afghanistan still depleted the strength of the United States and led to the decline of the United States. Although Putin is a shrewd leader, Russia is far weaker than the United States after all, and it has suffered unprecedented sanctions from the West, and Russia cannot fight a protracted war.
As long as the war does not end, Russia will continue to be depleted, and China will face trouble. Until the war is over, the allies, especially the transatlantic countries, will maintain close cooperation, paving the way for the future strategy of building a democratic alliance and joining forces against China. We have long been clear about this Chinese.
The United States is the only beneficiary, or more precisely, the Biden administration is the only beneficiary. The current situation in the United States is a bit like 1939-1941. Before pearl harbor, the United States made a fortune from war. In the coming period, the U.S. energy industry and arms market will expand significantly and create a large number of jobs. Half a year can be effective in the short term and help with midterm elections. Two years can be substantially effective, just in favor of Biden's 2024 presidential election.
Pearl Harbor
For now, China's best bet is to resolutely expose the U.S. conspiracy. Because the ins and outs of the matter are already clear, this is a conspiracy concocted by the Biden administration. China can kill three birds with one stone: first, express its support for Russia in the lowest-cost way, China actually does not need to provide military assistance to Russia, nor does it need to help Russia evade sanctions and not cause trouble; second, it reduces Europe's distrust of China and plays a responsible big country image, Europeans are not willing to be played by the United States in the palm of their hands, and then the EU will definitely invite China to mediate, and China can be more active; third, China can make the Ukrainian president and people clear about the nature of the United States.
China's resolute exposure of the US conspiracy not only makes the United States unable to find an excuse to sanction China, but also restores the truth of the matter to the world. Since last fall, the Biden administration has racked its brains to orchestrate the conspiracy. Once China exposes it and accelerates the peace talks, Biden will probably lose everything.
China should be wary that the longer the war drags on, the more unfavorable it will be to Russia. Once Russia loses the war, triggering an internal political crisis, it will also have a great negative impact on China. If Putin falls, then the capitalists of the West can take the opportunity to harvest Russia. This outcome will certainly lead to major strategic difficulties for China, and the West can isolate China even more.