Source: Rice Basket Investment
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Recently, I saw a discussion of a brokerage company that the commission of the US group is not high, and 100 million a day is not a dream, which really scared my pants off.
Brokers really don't do takeout, and they don't know the pain of capital squeezing labor.
He ignores the fact that capital uses data to make merchants compete, and how to squeeze (small) vendors without capital support afterwards, and then carry out a clean-up campaign against small traders to ensure that their interests are maximized.
Not only takeaway, but also shopping and travel.
Key takeaways:
1, securities companies (institutions) ignore the fact that large factories use low-price competition among merchants, especially the ecosystem established by small merchants, and then frantically squeeze the profits of merchants;
2, the core object of exclusion is small traders without capital support, and the clearance movement for small traders is not only small businesses that do takeaways, but also businesses in the field of shopping and travel;
3, this phenomenon will lead to an increase in the concentration of the industry, small traders will either pass on the cost to consumers, or struggle to survive to find new employment channels;
4, the Internet "innovation" business has not brought enough external employment, the transfer of costs will aggravate the hatred of labor to capital, once this hatred can not get positive feedback, the enthusiasm of labor will be greatly reduced, lying flat mentality will be progressive and spread.
1
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and 14 other departments issued a document requesting that "guide Internet platform enterprises such as takeaway to further reduce the service fee standards of catering merchants and reduce the operating costs of relevant catering enterprises.".
Originally, it was to guide large manufacturers to make profits and make the entire ecosystem sustainable, but it was washed by some brokers, believing that the commission rate of meituan was not high.
The result of the calculation is about 12%, which is in line with the proposal of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce that "the takeaway platform is acceptable to catering enterprises in the range of 10%-15%".
He completely ignores the fact that in addition to technical service fees and fulfillment fees, the commission rate is close to 20% (some are higher), and the costs of red envelopes, activities and other expenses are almost entirely borne by merchants.
(Figure 1, Source: Shenwan Hongyuan Research Report)
Merchants with the same product in the same region can only compete in red envelopes and activities, further depressing the profit margins of takeaway.
How similar to the online seller experience.
I have to say that the brokerage really has not done takeaway, do not know the pain of capital squeezing labor.
2
Of course, it must be recognized that the positive role of the Internet in completing the exchange of goods has made the business no longer limited to the specific areas of the past, but has allowed merchants to have a "broader market".
However, in the early stage, the market was occupied by a huge subsidy circle, and after the ecosystem matured, it did not optimize the distribution of upstream and downstream benefits through the large amount of data in hand, but used the data in hand to slaughter merchants and consumers.
This is the first evil of capital's labor injury.
According to the Meituan-W financial report, net profit growth has been achieved in 2019.
In the two years of the epidemic, the revenue of Meituan takeaway has further increased, and the reduction (or even loss) of net profit is completely caused by subsidies for "new business and others", such as Meituan Preferred, Meituan selling vegetables, etc.
(Figure 2, Meituan-W profit situation)
From the shareholder's point of view, there is nothing wrong with it, but it is very unfair to the seller.
After the takeaway area achieves net profit growth, it is reasonable to optimize the distribution of interests of merchants, consumers and riders, reasonable profits, and balance the three and continue to develop.
The reality is that while harvesting like crazy, subsidies are crazy to occupy new markets.
(Figure 3, part of the results announcement for the three months ended September 30, 2021)
Obviously, takeaway merchants are not obligated to "subsidize" your other markets!
In addition, the second great evil of capital is to artificially provoke low-price competition and then abandon small businesses.
In order to maximize the benefits, let the limited rider resources be more inclined to the sellers of the high customer unit price, modified
Commission ratio, the disguised abandonment of small merchants.
According to the latest takeaway commission rate in 2021 (see Figure 1):
1, the delivery distance is within 3 kilometers, the unit price of 20 yuan (below) of the small trader commission becomes higher, the higher the unit price, the more the remaining commission;
2, the delivery distance is 3 kilometers away, the unit price of 20 yuan (below) of small traders bear a higher commission ratio, the higher the unit price, the more obvious the commission ratio savings.
It can only be said that small hotels without scale advantages and low unit prices will only slowly lose the market dividends brought by the Internet in this new change, and future catering will be more concentrated on high-priced merchants with funds and brands.
The rest depends on who costs less!
It's hard to imagine how a seller selling hot dry noodles beats a pizza seller at cost, and how a seller selling hot dry noodles would win another hot dry noodle seller in the same region?!
Roll it, roll it up.
Everyone has no business to do the world to be peaceful.
3
The above situation is not only happening in the takeaway industry, but also in the field of online shopping and travel, especially online shopping.
With the maturity of the online shopping ecology, traffic has become a must for merchants, especially after 13 years.
The same type of business, than who throws more money, the car is better.
After 15 years, it became more and more magical.
The competitive model of merchants driving down prices to each other has squeezed out huge profit margins, resulting in sellers with complete supply chains and lower costs occupying the entire market.
In recent years, small businesses have become more and more aware that no matter how you drive, the traffic is still not running towards you.
Spending is grossly disproportionate to the returns received.
The situation became, "drive fast, don't drive and wait for death" is a fatal situation.
It has also caused the number of online sellers to flee in the past two years.
This is not the effective competition brought about by innovation, but the artificial traffic tilt of large factories, resulting in industry concentration or even "monopoly".
For example, a treasure is more, the original wooden piggy bank category is operated by a few small businesses, traffic distribution according to the store credit relatively balanced distribution, profits are relatively stable.
The low-price model is provoked by the small two.
Suddenly, one day, a store drained at a low price, resulting in the equilibrium of traffic being broken. Sellers built on the production side occupy the market by gradually sacrificing profit margins.
In the end, the production and sale were the same seller, and the other small sellers were unemployed and looked for him.
This is the true story of doing e-commerce around me.
This is not innovation because it does not bring greater externalities benefits.
For example, the advent of cars and airplanes has left unemployed workers who originally relied on bicycles to mail things, and then participated in the manufacturing and service industry of automobiles and airplanes.
This is the benefit of innovation, which is more efficient and produces more.
Now, the original offline business is put online, and the increase in concentration after low-price competition forces small sellers to leave online sales. The original 10 yuan of goods became 5 yuan after competition, the offline can no longer do the online price, and the online shopping habits originally cultivated by themselves have made it more difficult to do offline than before.
This is a new situation brought about by the increase in concentration under the vicious competition of low prices: business is closely focused on fewer people, and new employment channels (food delivery, couriers) cannot carry more employment.
The phenomenon of sending takeaways and delivering express deliveries has become a new scenery in the two years of the epidemic.
4
The underestimation of income originally generated by labor will make more people hate capital.
——As soon as something happened in a big factory, the high voice of support for insults was the best proof.
What is even more frightening is that once people establish the mental impression that capital (earning power) is greater than labor, they will emphasize capital over labor, and the enthusiasm of labor will be reduced. Coupled with high housing prices, the Buddhist system of young people lying in peace will spread further.
Not alarmist, it really happens in every news below the message.
At present, the top management needs to pay attention to this situation and take effective measures to make the market real from the virtual to the real.
Antitrust, especially Internet data and setting red lights for capital, will still become the focus of future supervision, and look at the follow-up.
~
Looking at the green and oily stock prices of the big factories that continue to fall, they are telling -
Capital gives me a color, I also give capital a hammer!!
Resources:
1. Meituan-W "Results Announcement for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2021";
3, network news "How high is the commission of the US group?" 》。
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