Wen Shu Dao always makes sense
In space exploration, human beings have always had endless interest and energy.
In 1972, a nun in Zambia wrote to NASA questioning why they had spent so much money and material resources on mars exploration, and hundreds of millions of people around the world were starving. It seems that technology is cold and impersonal in the eyes of ordinary people, but Ernst, then NASA's Marshall Space Center, gave a different answer in his reply:
He said that space exploration will spawn many new technologies to improve people's lives, such as space programs and meteorological satellites, which can improve global agricultural technology and further improve the hunger problem that nuns fear. As for whether space exploration and people's livelihood issues can be equated? Over the years, boundaries seem to be getting closer and closer to the vision.
Although in the eyes of many people, space exploration is only the last test of Musk in the pursuit of the peak of life, is a unique iron man after-school game, but technology diving into the sea of stars, indeed rising to the naked eye visible light. The movement of capital is always the best evidence.
Some time ago, the commercial space company "Starway Exploration" completed tens of millions of yuan of financing, coincidentally, the commercial launch vehicle provider "Galaxy Power Aerospace" has just announced the completion of a total of 1.27 billion yuan financing. This can't help but make people wonder, in 2021, domestic capital in the snack street toss a circle, the new year, finally decided to play the ticket big?
How long has capital's space dream been doing?
Manned spaceflight, lunar exploration, deep space exploration, low-Earth orbit space applications... Capital was once out of reach from these things, the domestic private aerospace icebreaking to 2014, at that time, with the loosening of the policy, the private aerospace sector got the first financing, which also announced the official departure of the "space dream" of capital.
After 2014, domestic commercial aerospace was once very active. First of all, in terms of capital, according to the statistics of the investor network, Zero One Space, which was established in 2015, has obtained three rounds of financing totaling nearly 500 million yuan; the total financing of Blue Arrow Space exceeds 500 million yuan; and the total financing of Interstellar Glory established at the end of 2016 exceeds 400 million yuan.
Perhaps before 2014, the empty window period in the commercial aerospace field was too long, and after breaking the ice, the enthusiasm of capital was slow to be annihilated, in short, the passion that burst out of this field when it was unshackled lasted for several years. The data shows that the amount of commercial space financing in the mainland will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 61.21% over 2019.
Even during the epidemic period, 2019-2020 is also the most beautiful period of commercial aerospace, public information shows that by the end of 2020, there will be 318 registered aerospace enterprises in the country, including 134 satellite applications, 84 satellite manufacturing fields, 48 satellite operations, and 47 satellite launch fields, with a financing amount of nearly 10 billion yuan.
From rocket manufacturers to satellite manufacturers, from satellite operators to application service providers... Up and down the industrial chain, there is capital busy in every link.
Taking rocket manufacturing as an example, 2018 is the highlight moment of domestic private rocket launches, accumulating 1 orbital stage launch, 4 sounding launches, and rocket launches up to 39 times throughout the year, it is reported that it is also in this year that domestic private rocket launches surpassed the United States for the first time.
By 2019 and 2020, domestic private rockets have entered a centralized launch period. From a certain point of view, various aerospace rookies have experienced extreme capital pursuit, and the next step of the "show" center is undoubtedly a showmanship.
Research and development, design, manufacturing, launch, both at the time level and technical level have tacitly launched a fight. For example, the "Hyperbolic One S", which was previously launched in Hainan, took only 60 days from research and development to launch, refreshing a number of records in the domestic commercial aerospace field.
But the pace is too fast, and it is inevitable that the flaws will be revealed. From 2014 to 2022, the private aerospace market has been full for less than a decade, and although there are many players in the industry who take advantage of this opportunity to show their faces, the weak foundation is inevitable under the crazy attack of capital.
In 2021, the financing of private satellites and private rocket companies has decreased significantly. As of November 2021, there are only 7 financings in the domestic private satellite industry, and the private rocket industry is as low as 1. This is the unexpected extinguishing of capital's obsession with "heaven" for seven years.
On the other hand, although the number of commercial space enterprises on the mainland is large, the scale is generally small. Statistics show that there are about 85,000 registered aerospace companies on the mainland, of which only 38,000 are in existence and in business. In all aspects of the aerospace industry, the most is the manufacture of ground equipment, satellite manufacturing and satellite launch account for a small proportion of the total scale of the industry, 7% and 3% respectively.
In 2022, capital is making a comeback again. The reason is very simple, the profits of the aerospace industry are really attractive, 2021 data show that the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 48.4% over the previous year, an average growth rate of 31.4% in two years, the growth rate was 14.1 and 13.2 percentage points higher than the average level of industries above designated size, accounting for 2.1 and 4.2 percentage points higher than that of 2020 and 2019, and the profits of aerospace vehicles and equipment and the industry grew the fastest, increasing by 76.2%.
Since 2014, even if the field is a chicken feather, it is difficult for capital to die.
Space interception "Musk"?
Not only the mainland, but also global capital has some strong interest in spaceflight. SpaceX has already been valued at more than $30.5 billion, and the total value of the U.S. launch services market in 2017 was only $5.5 billion. Of course, this is also a stark testament to the enviable value-added imagination of commercial aviation.
Commercial space has to mention Musk, the private space market in the United States is quite mature, as of September 1, 2021, the Vast majority of the 2788 satellites in orbit in the United States are commercial satellites, a total of 2359, and these commercial satellites, there are 1660 from Musk, in June 2020, in just 3 weeks, SpaceX launched 200 satellites.
The global commercial space field has only spawned a SpaceX so far, and as for whether it can be replicated again, all parties are currently waiting.
Looking at the mainland first, there are relevant research institutes that predict that by 2024, the size of China's commercial aerospace market is expected to reach 2,406 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 23.5%. On the one hand, although domestic commercial aerospace has now accumulated more than 3 billion yuan in financing, most private enterprises' rocket plans are comparable to Jia Yueting's car.
It is true that technology research and development and capital chain are indispensable in the aerospace market, and capital continues to pour in, the latter was once not a problem, but the former still has cracks. According to the domestic commercial space enterprise plan, before 2023, a total of six domestic companies plan to launch a total of 1830.
It is worth mentioning that "small satellites" account for the majority of them. Because of the short development cycle of small satellites, the research and development cost is only about 30 million, and it has become the darling of this field. However, behind the small satellite pile is the looming lesion exposed by the domestic commercial aerospace, and it is reported that in 2021, there will be a gap of 20 tons of commercial launch capacity in China.
In addition to the mainland, the United States mainland is behind SpaceX, and there are not a few who want to look back on it. In 2011, Virgin's boss Branson had a dinner with Musk because of private spaceflight, and Branson invited Musk to dinner for a straightforward purpose, exploring the possibility of purchasing a complete set of launch technologies from Rocket Engines to Fuel Bays, valves and batteries from SpaceX, hoping to make history with Musk.
But Musk is not impressed by this, why help a competitor? After all, there are countless people who want to grab the limelight with Musk in the sky, OneWeb has also been one of the biggest competitors of Space X, it is reported that when Space X's latest financing was still 500 million US dollars, OneWeb raised a total of 3.4 billion US dollars, and the companies involved in the investment included Coca-Cola, Virgin and other multinational giants. At its peak, OneWeb successfully launched more than 70 satellites.
Unfortunately, the good times are not long, in 2020, OneWeb suddenly had to face a collapse crisis because of the break of the capital chain, and it is obviously not so simple for capital to go to heaven, just on the eve of the collapse, OneWeb also plans to launch 4425 satellites. Commercial spaceflight around the world has a common problem: too much dependence on capital.
This has a fatal consequence, and it is possible that the capital chain will break anytime and anywhere. For example, OneWeb's major shareholder is SoftBank, which accounts for 40% of the shares, and in 2020, SoftBank abandoned multiple overseas operations for various reasons and sold $41 billion in assets. In the face of SoftBank's sudden withdrawal of funds, OneWeb's end is obvious.
Bigwigs from all over the world want to chase and block Musk in space, but this race is not easy.
Is the global space race white-hot?
There is a straightforward question in front of us, how much economic value does global commercial spaceflight really have?
According to the Space Report released by the Space Foundation in 2019, government and commercial revenues in the world space market have grown by a total of 73% over the past decade, an increase of more than $9 billion from the previous year, climbing to $423.8 billion. Commercial space revenue accounts for 80% of the global space economy, reaching $336.89 billion.
Frankly speaking, the commercial space of various countries has been remarkable in recent years. Statistics show that at present, among the commercial aerospace enterprises on the mainland, private commercial aerospace enterprises account for 80%, commercial aerospace enterprises of the Chinese Academy of Sciences account for 10%, and commercial aerospace enterprises of the Aerospace Department account for 10%. In 2020, the amount of commercial aerospace investment in the mainland exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, an increase of 61.21% year-on-year.
Secondly, the commercial space of the United States and European countries started relatively early in terms of the integrity of the industrial chain and the maturity of the space business.
The world's first commercial launch service provider, Arian is currently co-operated by 9 European countries. Prior to SpaceX's incorporation, Arian Space was already the general contractor for ESA's commercial launch program, once accounting for 50 percent of the global market share of commercial satellite launch missions.
The UK's space industry has always been developed, and the National Space Strategy shows that the UK space industry employs more than 45,000 people, the average worker productivity is 2.6 times that of other industries, creating more than £16.4 billion in value per year, and satellite technology generates an additional £3.6 trillion for broader economic activity.
The United States does not need to repeat that Musk's Starlink Company launched satellites that can circle the earth several times. In this field, the global process and speed have given birth to a burning sense of déjà vu, and South Korea plans to complete a satellite constellation of 100 tiny satellites by 2031.
It is reported that South Korea is expected to organize aerospace talent training every year, including a training program for 100 people, about 60 people internship courses, and more than 200 on-the-job training. In terms of financial support, about 2 billion won will be supported for companies designing satellite systems in the next three years.
A number of small countries such as Israel will specialize in a certain link even if it is difficult to reach the entire industrial chain. Seeing the surging commercial space market around the world, in order to seize the 6G key technology satellite communication, it is expected to rush up. However, capital is so crazy, the aerospace business is becoming more and more grounded, and science and technology are inevitably reduced to some gimmicks in the process of getting out of control.
Just as the domestic Via was broadcasting a cargo rocket on a live broadcast, which detonated social opinion for a time, just two months later, Station B announced on Children's Day that it would launch the "Bilibili video satellite", but soon because of the rocket failure, a large number of netizen pigeons were released. It can be said that commercial aerospace is still in a very embarrassing situation, and the ambition of capital may not be able to change this situation.