The author of The Eastern Evil
Elon Musk is the only one who can shoulder the heavy responsibility of sending humans to Mars. We've heard a lot about Musk's Mars program on the news over the past few years, and every time Musk makes a statement, it will cause public discussion, and many of them want to know when Musk will be able to send humans to Mars. Recently, he responded to this question from netizens on social media and gave a more definite time: 2029.
Two years ago, Musk publicly said that he would send humans to Mars in 2025, and with the development of the global epidemic and the slow progress of Space X's research and development, Musk had to postpone the expected time. Despite this, there are still many netizens who question Musk and his Space X, believing that they have never been able to complete the grand plan of sending 1 million people to Mars. So how does Musk plan to send humans to Mars? If he fulfilled his prophecy, would it be possible for humans to settle on Mars?
How does Musk plan to send humans to Mars?
Judging from Musk's multiple public statements before, Space X's ultimate goal is to send 1 million people to Mars. To that end, the company will develop 1,000 starships, each capable of carrying 100,000 people. Then, at the rate of launching 3 starships a day, 1,000 starships can be sent out of Earth in a year. If you imagine this scene from the perspective of outer space, the human spaceship "ten thousand arrows" are still very spectacular.
The ideal is very full, the reality is very bone, how is Musk and his space company progressing? Space X developed a manned spacecraft called the Starship Spacecraft and held its first test on December 10, 2020. Just after the starship spacecraft flew to an altitude of about 12.5 kilometers, the spacecraft suddenly exploded, announcing that the first test of the starship program had failed. According to U.S. media reports, the entire process of the starship's take-off lasted only 6.5 minutes before it came to an abrupt end, which was a heavy blow to Space X.
At this time, many people thought that Musk was going to give up, but he and his Space X did not give up, they investigated the cause of the rocket explosion accident, and targeted the launch vehicle, spacecraft engine modifications. In addition, Space X has also independently developed the super-huge rocket booster BFR, which is currently the most loaded carrier rocket on the earth.
It is understood that the main use of BFR is to send the starship spacecraft into orbit on Mars, and although its current load capacity is only about 13 tons, the expected target of Space X is 100 tons. There are still 6 years left for Musk, in which 6 years, whether Space X can overcome the existing technical problems and break through the bottleneck of space delivery determines whether Musk's Mars plan can take a step forward, and to a certain extent, it also determines the trend of human future space development.
How likely are humans to settle on Mars?
With so many planets in the solar system, why did Musk choose Mars? The answer is simple, at present, only Mars barely meets the requirements, and to be really strict, Mars is actually not a good choice. Mars is slightly smaller than Earth, and although the temperature on its surface is not high, it is not too cold. What's more, Martian day is the closest to Earth day, which allows life on Earth to adapt more quickly to the environment on Mars.
But there is a saying that the possibility of humans settling on Mars is not very likely, and the possibility of traveling to Mars is greater, which is determined by the basic environment of Mars and the level of human space technology. The original ecological environment of the whole Mars is not suitable for the survival of the earth's organisms, and human beings must transform Mars to survive on it, from the earth to Mars, but also to transform it, not to mention the ability of human beings in the next 10 years, and may not be able to do it in the next 100 years.
Rather than settling down, the development of Mars tourism resources is more likely. Some time ago, Amazon founder Bezos took a spaceship to space, and a Japanese billionaire also experienced it, although they only slipped around in the earth's orbit, but at least it shows that space tourism is feasible. In time, the level of human spaceflight has been greatly improved, so it is possible to travel to Mars.
summary
Many people think that Musk's Mars plan is a fantasy, but in fact, this plan is not out of reach, at least he and his company have now made some achievements for the world to see. But for the answer he gave for 2029, the author does not have much hope. NASA, as the most powerful space agency on the planet, can't package a ticket to send humans to Mars in the next decade, and Space X is just a commercial space company.
The road to Mars is destined to be very long and arduous, but it is precisely because this dream is difficult to realize quickly that it drives mankind to constantly seek technological innovation and breakthroughs.