Two days ago, the sale of the fourth phase of the Tianhe World Grand View was terminated.
This result is not surprising to us, and it has been hinted at in previous articles.
I didn't want to start it, but the response was unexpectedly big, and the discussion was as intense as the two cases in the eastern district of the financial city, and there have always been fans in the group who want us to talk about it.
Let's talk about it today, talk about our views and what we have learned, why no one goes to the plot, and why Yuexiu doesn't take it.
In fact, this thing is not as bad as everyone thinks.
1
The most critical reason is the quality of the plot itself.
Judging from the four plots sold by the World Grand View, the core selling points are very consistent, that is, the scarce low-density community in the central part of the city + the first-line lake view, which further solidifies the positioning of the "rich area" of the Olympic Stadium-Dairy Factory plate.
However, between plots of land, there is no simple equivalence.
Whether the landscape is wide or not, whether it is near the road, whether it depends on the village or not, whether it is built or not, etc., some seemingly subtle differences often determine its subsequent fate.
Although the plot ratio of the fourth phase is only 1.8, it is also close to Sun Lake, which is not outstanding compared to the first three phases.
In addition to being relatively independent, it is not conducive to the continuous development of other plots of land in the World Grand View, and it also faces many constraints.
First, the plot only faces the Sun Lake in the east, and the lake landscape is narrow, and it is also separated by an Olympic Sports North Road, which is far from the lake view;
Second, the north side of the plot faces Daguan Village, and the urban interface is general, so it is necessary to wait for the old reform expectations, which may be resistant to the improvement of buyers;
Third, the south side of the plot is Yuejing Road (planning and optimization), which will be affected by noise in the future and will be difficult to sell at affordable prices;
Fourth, although the starting floor price of the plot is the lowest among the four plots, less than 44,000 yuan/m², but to build kindergartens, nurseries, fresh supermarkets, etc., the actual saleable land price has reached 49,925 yuan/m², exceeding the third phase.
In fact, before the land auction, Greentown, Xiamen International Trade, Yuexiu, and Shanghai Dahua Group were all studying the possibility of winning the fourth phase of the land, because there were still expectations for the plate.
But if you want to take it, you have to face several problems, and it is difficult to calculate the accounting:
First, as mentioned earlier, the quality of the plot has a certain flaw.
If you want to make a large house and improve the product, the total price will go up, and the buyer will hesitate and have a certain resistance.
If you do a small apartment, such a high land price is not realistic, and the profit margin cannot go up; Even if you really do it head-on, it is still in line with the improvement of the tone of the plate, the product is mismatched, and the target customer group is limited.
The second is to directly face each other directly with Yuexiu Guanyue and the second and third phases of the World Grand View.
People have lake views, high-utility products, more famous schools, and the certainty of commercial facilities.
I fight bayonets in front, and you divide the cake in the back? can't beat it, can't beat it, unless Xiu'er takes it herself, but Xiu'er also has to settle accounts.
Third, in addition to Yuexiu's "Tiantuan", there are many competing products around, and there are other supplies in the future.
Don't forget, there are also Hopson Guangzhou Manyun and Hejing Zhenyi Mansion, which have been sold for a while, as well as a large number of second-hand houses waiting to be fed, especially the milk factory.
There is so much real demand in the market, and it is terrible for more than a dozen projects to grab customers together.
The volume of the fourth phase of the plot is not large, about 37,000 square meters, it is difficult to shake the plate pattern, and it is difficult to stand alone.
Note that this is only the supply that is determined to come at this stage, from the trend of control and regulation adjustment, there are still many residential lands around, including Daguan Village, Guangdong TV, Aerospace Wonders, etc., although the quality is inferior, but it is also a potential pressure.
So, while studying and studying, there was no sound.
It is not difficult to understand that in the current market, as well as the real estate companies active in the land auction market, the strategy of taking land and swapping positions has long changed.
In the past, I focused on the core area/plate, and I put up with the imperfection of the plot, but now it can't, it must be the core plot of the core area/plate.
The fault tolerance rate is too low, the cost of trial and error is too high, and under the principle of giving priority to all payments and ensuring cash flow, most real estate companies will not easily get land unless there is an urgent need to make up for the warehouse, or for the consideration of the insurance team.
The total price of the fourth phase of Daguan is indeed not high, only 1.63 billion, but it is necessary to compare.
From January to April this year, the amount of land acquisition of about 1.6 billion yuan is enough to rank among the top 50 real estate enterprises in the country;
For some of the more difficult businesses, this is also life-saving money.
Considering multiple factors, the real estate companies in the early stage of research have tacitly covered their pockets.
2
There is also a question, why Yuexiu didn't take it.
Indeed, after taking the first, second and third phases of the plot, many people feel that it is logical for Yuexiu to take the fourth phase.
Yesterday the official announcement of the famous school, today spent money to get the land, and it is Yuexiu again
Certainly not because of lack of money.
The total price of more than one billion yuan may be a test for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises, but not for Yuexiu.
It's not because of the "don't love" section.
The first, second and third phases of the plot, 12.6 billion + real money and silver have been spent, and this operation itself is firmly optimistic about the plate.
In addition, before the start of the filming of the third phase of the plot, the most important school - Tianwai was also announced.
The first phase of the plot, Yuexiu Guanyue, is equipped with 24 classes of primary school, which will be clearly managed by a team from Guangzhou Tianhewai Chinese School.
These also represent Yuexiu's emphasis on the project, and the best supporting facilities will be implemented.
It's not hard to understand either.
It is located in the world grand view plate, from the Pearl River New Town, Tianhebei, Financial City, and Pazhou after the opening of the Chebei South Tunnel, quite close, fast access to the three major CBD.
Such a location and configuration, as well as a scarce lake view, are rare and scarce in the core area
With the blessing and spillover of the three major CBD, it is very convenient to work and live, and there is no need to worry about not having a strong customer base to take over.
In addition, after 17 years of successive repossession of the dairy factory sector, after 6-7 years, there are also many owners who want to replace them, better products, and better living experience.
There is still plenty of room for growth in the sector.
The core reason for not taking the fourth phase is because the quality and conditions of the fourth phase of the plot do not conform to the tonality of Yuexiu Yue's products.
At least for this stage.
The appearance around the plot and the core lake view are not superior, even if you take it, you can't make a very good product, but it will lower the value of the whole project.
In general, the development idea of Yuexiu Daguan is to make continuous improvements in the first, second and third phases, with larger units and better landscapes.
As soon as the four phases with the word "just changed" on the top of their heads came in, it was obviously unsociable, it was difficult not to be forked out, and the land price was still so high, why did Yuexiu spend this money.
The previously officially announced design plan of the World Grand View did not bring the fourth phase of "play", because the location is relatively independent and does not affect the development of the plate to the east.
Of course, objectively speaking, the comprehensive conditions of the fourth phase of the plot are not bad, but they are not so good compared to the first, second and third phases, and the timing of the debut is not good.
It's not a bad thing for the plot.
In the future, we can wait for the opening of the Yuejing Road road network, as well as the improvement of schools and commercial facilities, and then list for sale, there will be stronger certainty, the market will be more acceptable, and real estate companies will be more willing to sell.
Like the previous Tianhe Meihua Aluminum, Baiyun Jiahe Wanggang, Panyu Passenger Station and other plots, no one wanted to list for the first time, and the comeback was a typical case of being robbed.
The fourth phase of Daguan is also worth looking forward to.
Quietly, Guangzhou is already considering reducing land prices and optimizing the transfer threshold.