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Aerospace
Transferred from: Unfinished research
Global enthusiasm for launching rockets into space is rekindling.
Last year, for the first time, the number of launches broke the record held for more than 50 years since the U.S.-Soviet space race. The new record will soon be broken. In the first quarter of this year, this number has reached 32 times, slightly more than the 27 times in the same period last year.
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China and the United States have led a new round of space competition. Of the total 144 orbital launches last year, China was 55 and the United States was 51.
Musk's SpaceX has launched more than 1,900 low-orbit satellites, and its Starlink satellite Internet service already has 250,000 users. The Starlink has already made its first appearance in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Amazon is also ramping up its investment in satellite Internet services, and has signed up for 83 rocket launches in the coming years, including Blue Origin, founded by Bezos.
Recently, China completed the Shenzhou 13 manned mission, and three astronauts stayed on the space station for 183 days. In 2022, China will accelerate the construction of space stations and space laboratories.
China's National Development and Reform Commission has also recently proposed to promote the development of the Beidou industry in the "14th Five-Year Plan", promote the large-scale application of Beidou, and the development of marketization, industrialization and internationalization. The Beidou satellite navigation system was officially opened in July 2020, and a total of 45 Beidou satellites are currently in orbit.
But competition has become different, in addition to the mission of inter-state competition, rockets carry more commercial applications, private enterprises, start-ups are becoming the main force of technological innovation.
Excluding the veteran defense and military enterprises, the Falcon 9 of the American company SpaceX launched 31 times, and other startups a total of 11 times, a total of 3 failures. Private startups in China launched a total of 3 times and failed 2 times.
There is a gap in the technical capabilities of private companies in the two countries, and the business environment is also different. The US commercial space launch enterprises represented by Space X have continuously reduced costs through innovation and expanded the commercial application scenarios of Space Tech; more demand means more launches, further diluting costs and promoting technology iteration.
In the field of commercial space launches, the engine thrust-to-weight ratio and fuel technology of launch vehicles determine the size of the payload, and also affect the number of multiple stars in one arrow, which in turn affects the launch cost of a single satellite; the recyclable reuse of the first stage rocket also helps to reduce the cost of a single launch.
SpaceX promotes liquid methane oxide. From the perspective of reuse, the use of this fuel, the engine is not easy to accumulate carbon, the life cycle will be much longer; from the cost point of view, methane cost is more than 50% lower than kerosene; from the perspective of lifting load, the specific impulse of liquid oxygen methane (that is, the amount of propellant per unit, the impulse that can be generated) is also greater than that of liquid oxygen kerosene. Currently, Chinese startups are also working on liquid oxygen methane engines, but the thrust still can't be compared to the 200 tons of SpaceX Raptor series.
Another path to lifting the load is to increase the engine thrust-to-weight ratio, which is the total weight that the engine can push per unit mass. Since 2002, SpaceX has developed Merlin, Kestrel and Raptor engines. Domestic private enterprises are still in the experimental or theoretical stage, the more leading is the Sky Engine from Galaxy Power, which completed a full-system test in March this year, and its thrust-to-weight ratio is between several early models of the SpaceX Merlin series, at least about 10 years.
The higher the payload, the more satellites can be carried in a single launch. The launch technology of multiple stars with one arrow reduces the launch cost of a single satellite. Last year, SpaceX set a record by sending 143 satellites into space at once. The company's next-generation StarShip has a carrying capacity of about 100 tons and is expected to send more than 400 satellites into orbit at a time.
A major breakthrough in reducing launch costs also comes from reuse technology. Recoverable launch vehicles are mainly divided into two categories: partially recyclable and fully recoverable. The former mainly recovers the first stage rocket. SpaceX reduced the launch cost to about $2,000 after completing the recovery of the first stage. For decades before that, the entire orbital launch cost more than $10,000 per kilogram. Starships can further reduce costs to $200 per kilogram. Several of China's leading funding startups have also designed recyclable technology into next-generation rockets, but have yet to launch validation.
SpaceX's success is inseparable from government support. In fact, NASA, along with government agencies and public sectors such as the U.S. Department of Defense, is a major early investor in commercial space technology and a contract provider. But as the market has gradually opened up to private companies and more venture capital has poured in, commercial space startups in the United States have docked more diversified launch needs.
China is also trying to open its markets. The "2021 China Aerospace" white paper encourages and guides the development of commercial spaceflight, including expanding the scope of government procurement, promoting the open sharing of scientific research facilities and equipment, supporting participation in the development of major engineering projects, and establishing a negative list system for access.
At present, China's commercial aerospace companies mainly provide satellite launch services for scientific research institutions and satellite Internet operators, with small revenue scale and relatively fragile commercial closed loops.
Venture capital is bullish on the future of China's commercial spaceflight. This year, Galactic Energy announced that it has completed a $200 million Series B round of funding, which is China's second-largest single-round funding in space technology after the $400 million financing of Changguang Satellite (CGSTL) in 2020, and the largest financing in commercial space launches, slightly higher than the previous iSpace and Blue Arrow Space. And expace, which spun off from state-owned enterprises, announced a funding record of about $175 million.
But that's not enough compared to the input of competitors. Over the past 8 years, Chinese commercial aerospace startups have raised about $2-2.5 billion. SpaceX alone raised $1.5 billion in 2021, while Rocket Lab raised $777 million through a special purpose acquisition (SPAC).
Around the design and manufacture of rocket components, as well as launch services, these startups from China's exploration and innovation are opening up the future of China's commercial spaceflight.
This article is authorized to be reprinted, the article only represents the original author's views, does not represent the position of the hard technology public account.
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