Is the distance between China's commercial aerospace and SpaceX widening or shrinking? What is the experience of private enterprises building rockets? Can solid rockets make money? When will China have its own recyclable rockets?
On March 22, Liu Baiqi, founder of the commercial aerospace company Galaxy Power (Beijing) Space Technology Co., Ltd., mentioned in a live broadcast that this year plans to complete 5-6 commercial launches of solid carrier rockets, solid rockets are like taxis, liquid rockets are like buses, Ceres I rockets are taxis, "We just want to make the price of taxis the same as buses, and continue to develop small solid launch vehicles." The "Zhishen Xing-1" liquid carrier rocket is scheduled to achieve its first flight into orbit in 2023, and strive to achieve orbital recovery around 2025-2026.
Liu Baiqi said that the distance between China's commercial aerospace and SpaceX has widened from a technical point of view, but the progress of the world is a spiral progress, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the current gap widening. "In terms of low-orbit satellite launches, our gap will gradually narrow in the next two or three years. What we are pursuing is to transport these low-orbit constellations from the ground to space, the cost of launching per kilogram of satellites, and the launch success rate. Liu Baiqi said that in terms of commercial cost performance, China's commercial aerospace will shorten the gap head-on in the next few years.
Building rockets is "a gun for ten thousand people"
On November 7, 2020, the Galaxy Power Ceres-1 (Yaoyi) carrier rocket was launched at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, sending an Apocalypse 11 star of Beijing Guodian Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. into a predetermined orbit. At 12:12 on December 7 last year, Galaxy Power successfully launched the Ceres-1 (Yao-2) carrier rocket in Jiuquan, sending five commercial satellites into a 500-kilometer sun-synchronous orbit.
"Isn't solid rocket development simple?" Liu Baiqi talked about the experience of the first flight of the Ceres-1 solid carrier rocket, when a famous domestic rocket expert told him that from the statistical results, the first flight of solid carrier rockets in the world is very few.
For example, before ceres I's first flight, in September 2020, Astra's first orbital launch attempt failed, and the guidance system of the Rocket 3.1 rocket caused the launch vehicle to deviate from the planned trajectory, and the engine shut down shortly after launch, and then failed twice in a row, until the fourth challenge was successful.
"It's not what we think, because it's small and low cost, it's simple." Liu Baiqi said that no matter whether the rocket is large or small, this is a complex system, and the rocket is "a gun for ten thousand people", from design, production, manufacturing to assembly, testing, and launching. "For example, if 10,000 people go to the exam and everyone scores 100 points, the rocket can be a complete success."
"For rocket design alone, the rocket segmentation involved may require more than thirty specialties. In order to design a rocket, each major may need at least a director-level designer with more than 10 years of work experience, plus several technical backbones, which may require a professional team of nearly 100 people. ”
The completion of a rocket also means that a company has the overall ability to develop a launch vehicle, and has the ability to control all the risks of the rocket and ultimately achieve the goal. "There are only 11 countries in the world that have such capabilities, and only about 7 countries now maintain a stable capacity."
In terms of commercial aerospace, Liu Baiqi introduced that before SpaceX, the earliest commercial rocket company established in the United States was the space service company founded in 1980, "until 1994, a full 14 years of suffering, and finally the rocket did not enter orbit, and the company went out of business." ”
"We may be too entangled in whether it's a solid or liquid rocket, whether it's kerosene or a methane rocket. But if you want to make a rocket, this matter is a big challenge for a private enterprise, with fewer people, less money, and short time. Liu Baiqi said that when we talk about the difficulty of the rocket, we still have to maintain a heart of awe.
5-6 launches are planned this year
In 2002, at 1310 El Segundo GranGeland East in the Los Angeles suburb of El Segundo, Musk rented an old warehouse for space business, and the humble SpaceX was founded.
Today, this star company has made efforts in satellite launches, manned spaceflight, starship research and development, satellite Internet and other parties, but between 2002 and 2008, it has also experienced three rocket launch failures.
"SpaceX has developed to this day, who is it targeting? The big god in front of it at that time was NASA, China Aerospace, and the Russian Space Agency. It did not go to the benchmark these, it is to find its own market positioning, product positioning, step by step development. ”
Liu Baiqi believes that the first step in the development of China's own commercial launch vehicles must be to analyze what kind of rockets the market needs, and the second is to base on independent innovation and independently develop core engine control systems and subsystem components in order to form competitive launch vehicle products that meet market demand.
Liu Baiqi said that this year Galaxy Power plans to complete 5-6 commercial launches of solid carrier rockets, and has started mass production since the ceres-1 Yaosan rocket. Solid rockets are like taxis, liquid rockets are like buses, Ceres I rockets are taxis, "We just want to make taxis the same price as buses, and continue to develop small solid launch vehicles." ”
In terms of medium and large commercial launch vehicles, Galaxy Power Aerospace launched the development of the "Zhishen Xing-1" reusable liquid oxygen/kerosene carrier rocket at the end of 2018. The low-orbit carrying capacity of this type of rocket is not less than 5 tons, the low-orbit capacity of the extended bundled configuration can reach 14 tons, and the design reuse time is 50 times. Liu Baiqi said that it is planned to achieve the first flight into orbit in 2023, and strive to achieve orbital recovery around 2025-2026.
"We have to be clear about the fact that all the private space companies in China are going to do recyclable rockets, and no rocket company has said that we will do disposable rockets." From a global perspective, at present, only the American company Astra is clearly stating that small rockets will not be recycled. ”
But the reality is that there is only one company in the world that has really achieved orbital recovery, that is, Musk's SpaceX, and the Falcon 9 rocket has achieved one arrow and 12 flights. Liu Baiqi said that the team is working on key technologies for vertical recovery rockets, including guidance control technology and landing buffer technology, and will carry out flight verification for guidance control technology in the recovery process in the first half of this year.
The distance between China's commercial aerospace and SpaceX is widening or shrinking
Since the rise of China's commercial aerospace in 2014, when commercial rockets, commercial satellites and other enterprises have been established, Beijing Yizhuang has even become a famous "rocket street", founded in February 2018 Galaxy Power is often asked whether it started late.
Liu Baiqi said that from the point of view of the time at that time, the outside felt that it was indeed late to start. "At that time, the first rocket companies established may have raised four or five hundred million, their teams have reached hundreds of people, and rocket products have been developed and ready to be launched."
"But from the current point of view, Galaxy Power is the first to achieve continuous launch success, and plans to complete 6 commercial launches this year, so it can also be said that we have taken the lead in the market, and from this point of view, it is not particularly late."
Liu Baiqi said that any industry will have a group of people working together to explore in the early stage of development. In the case of unclear market demand, technical routes, etc., these explorations have made latecomers focus more on their own businesses and products, "These companies that were established in the earliest days, I have always had great respect for them in my heart." ”
When it comes to commercial spaceflight, it is inseparable from Musk. Is China's commercial space space widening or shrinking compared to SpaceX?
Liu Baiqi said that from a technical point of view, it has expanded, but the progress of the world is a spiral of progress, and there is no need to feel pessimistic about the widening gap at present.
From the perspective of commercial applications, the development of spaceX starships is mainly used for Martian colonization, "in terms of low-orbit satellite launches, our gap will gradually narrow in the next two or three years." What we are pursuing is to transport these low-orbit constellations from the ground to space, the cost of launching per kilogram of satellites, and the launch success rate. Liu Baiqi said that in terms of commercial cost performance, China's commercial aerospace will shorten the gap head-on in the next few years.
Galaxy Power Firmament-50 liquid oxygen/kerosene engine
"It's not to criticize everyone for learning Musk, but if we think that first principles are correct, we can't copy Musk." Because the social environment of the two countries is different, the development time stage is different, and the technological foundation is different. ”
Liu Baiqi said that the current rocket industry is facing the situation of more stars and few arrows or even no stars without arrows, the cost of rocket launch is high, and the cost of constellation construction is also high. "How to reduce the cost of rocket launch, increase rocket production capacity and radio frequency is a problem that we have to solve, not that we have to repeat the path that Musk has taken."