The 18th Beijing Auto Show can be described as the "highlight moment" of electric vehicles: whether it is the Korean exhibitors "strong onlookers" of domestic electric vehicles, or the "big guys" of car companies working hard to do live broadcasts with goods, or the "uncle in red" Zhou Hongyi sold the oil car Maybach for 9.9 million...... However, at this year's steaming auto show, Tesla, the former "overlord" of electric vehicles, was absent. Although Tesla did not come to the Beijing Auto Show, Tesla's boss Elon Musk came to Beijing. Musk's Gulfstream G550 private jet landed at the capital airport at 14:02 on the 28th Beijing time and left on the 29th.
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At the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, Premier Li Qiang met with Musk. Li Qiang said that Tesla's development in China can be called a successful example of Sino-US economic and trade cooperation, and said that China's super-large market will always be open to foreign enterprises. Musk told Li Qiang that Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla's best-performing factory, thanks to the hard work and wisdom of the Chinese team. Tesla is willing to further deepen cooperation with China and achieve more win-win results.
Li Qiang and Musk have met many times. And Musk's statement in the latest meeting that "Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla's best-performing factory" is naturally full of sincerity - because Tesla's impressive sales results are inseparable from the Chinese market.
Premier Li Qiang meets with Musk. Source: Xinhua News Agency
As early as July 2018, Li Qiang, then secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, met with Musk. In that year, Tesla's first overseas gigafactory was located in Lingang, Shanghai, which was the largest foreign-funded manufacturing project in Shanghai's history. Only half a year later, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory started construction, creating a Chinese speed of "starting construction that year, completing construction that year, putting it into production that year, and going public that year". Subsequently, from 0 to 1 million vehicles, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory took 33 months, from 1 million to 2 million vehicles, and it took only 13 months.
At that time, Musk could be described as "a spring breeze with a horse's hoof". On January 7, 2020, Tesla delivered the domestically produced Model 3 for the first time at the Shanghai Gigafactory, and Musk came to the scene in person and excitedly came to an impromptu dance.
Source: Reuters
Before settling in Shanghai, Tesla was in a serious production capacity crisis and cash flow crisis, on the one hand, the production of the Model 3 could not meet the delivery demand, and on the other hand, the huge R&D investment led to the collapse of the company's capital link. In his book "Iron Man of Silicon Valley: The Adventurous Life of Elon Musk", Musk mentioned that in March 2013, he almost sold Tesla to Google for $11 billion, "when Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy."
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However, in recent days, Musk has not been very comfortable:
Largest layoffs: On April 15, Musk announced that Tesla would lay off 10% of its global workforce, bringing the total number of Tesla employees worldwide to 140473 as of December 31, 2023. According to this calculation, the number of employees involved in Tesla's current round of layoffs may reach more than 14,000. This is Tesla's fifth mass layoff since 2017, when the company laid off 2% of its workforce. Since then, the company has cut 9%, 7% and 3% of its workforce in 2018, 2019 and 2022, respectively.
Top Changes: Drew Baglino, senior vice president of Tesla's powertrain and energy business, and Rohan Patel, vice president of public policy and business development, announced their departures. Baglino is a veteran of Tesla, having served for 18 years as senior vice president of the powertrain and energy business, responsible for the battery, motor, drive unit, power electronics and energy products that are at the core of Tesla's business. Patel joined Tesla in 2017 as Vice President of Public Policy and Business Development, where he helped manage Tesla's relationship with government and regulators.
Profit decline: The 2023 financial report shows that Tesla's annual net profit in 2023 will be $10.882 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and Tesla has also experienced its first annual profit decline since 2017.
Stock price fall: Tesla's stock price has fallen sharply recently, and in the first quarter of this year, Tesla's stock price fell by nearly 30%, and Musk lost his position as the world's richest man.
Under the predicament, Musk once again thought of the blessed land of China. During his one-and-a-half-day visit to China, Musk was not only able to meet with the top level of the Chinese government, but also successfully obtained the "data security pass", and Tesla passed all four requirements of national car data security, namely anonymization of face information outside the car, no collection of cockpit data by default, in-car processing of cockpit data, and significant notification of personal information processing. Tesla said that this will be conducive to the full lifting of the ban on driving and parking restrictions on smart cars such as Tesla (such as government agencies, airports, highways, etc.).
It is understood that the four requirements of this pilot project have put forward high requirements for automotive data compliance, which have been highly valued and actively cooperated by the management of various enterprises. At the same time, in order to meet the relevant requirements, the pilot enterprises have invested large R&D resources. Tesla is also the only foreign-owned company to meet the compliance requirements, along with BYD, Li Energy, Lotus, Hezhong New Energy (under the brand Nezha Automobile) and NIO.
In addition to getting the "pass", Musk's trip can be described as fruitful. Some media speculated that Musk intended to promote Tesla's Full Self-Driving System (FSD) in China. A few days before leaving for Beijing, Musk replied to netizens about when Tesla's FSD would enter China, saying that "it may be realized soon", indicating that Musk has expected to land his FSD in China.
In the long run, achieving high-level autonomous driving is the future development trend of electric vehicles. Autonomous driving technology is revolutionizing itself as a key driver of new productivity in the electric vehicle industry. At present, whether in China, or in the European and American markets, they are actively embracing autonomous driving and promoting the implementation of autonomous driving technology.
According to the data, in 2023, 12.3806 million passenger cars in the Chinese market (excluding import and export) will be delivered with ADAS (advanced driver assistance system) as standard, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, while the high-end intelligent driving market represented by NOA will increase by 189.02% year-on-year. Once Tesla's updated FSD version successfully enters the Chinese market, the impact on the entire high-end intelligent driving market will be huge, or it will greatly strengthen consumer awareness, promote the penetration of high-end intelligent driving in China, and trigger a "catfish effect" in the field of autonomous driving in the mainland.
In this day and a half in China, Musk "said" that Tesla will enter the low-end market of 200,000 yuan, and the "cheapest" Tesla Model 2 will be launched in 2025, and its project name is "Redwood". It is reported that the new car will start production at the plants in Mexico, Berlin and Shanghai, and the market price will remain around 25,000 US dollars (based on the current exchange rate, the domestic price is about 182,000 yuan), and the price is expected to usher in a further decline after full production in the later stage. Tesla currently has only five models on sale, including two sedans, two SUVs and one pickup, and models under 200,000 yuan have been "blank".
Source: BBC
Musk advertised the launch of low-cost models, and this "big pie" was actually painted for several years. As early as Tesla's "Battery Day" in 2020, Musk showed off his technical "muscles" and proposed to achieve the purpose of cost reduction through integrated die-casting, cell depolarization design, body integration, etc., saying that "it is not a problem to achieve a $25,000 parity model in about three years".
Judging from the data released by Tesla, the cumulative sales of Model S and Model X in 2023 are less than 70,000 units, which is in stark contrast to the performance of Model Y and Model 3 in the market.
However, since 2020, Tesla has not launched a new model for the mass market, Tesla's Model Y sports utility vehicle used to be the highest-selling car, but in today's technological upgrading, the thinking mode of "one trick is eaten all over the world" may have to change its thinking, after all, BYD, SAIC, Geely and other domestic car companies are riveting their efforts to innovate.
Tesla's futuristic pickup truck, the Cybertruck, which began to go on sale in limited quantities last year, has attracted only a small number of buyers, and most consumers cannot accept the high price and avant-garde design. The R&D-intensive "Cybertruck" is made of stainless steel, a material that looks strong and rust-resistant, but is difficult to handle. The Xiaomi SU7, which was just launched not long ago, is priced at 215,900, and BYD's popular model "Dolphin" is priced at 99,800 - how much pressure is on Musk? The answer is only known to him.
Hal Weston, an assistant professor of engineering management at the University of Washington who studies China's car-buying habits, said Tesla is not optimistic in the high-end market because its cars don't offer as much comfort as those from automakers like BMW or Mercedes-Benz. "There are so many good options in China, Tesla is 'not up or down', and in terms of what it can offer, its price is too high. ”
Tesla is no longer in Europe. According to the March sales data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Tesla's sales fell by 34.9% in the month due to the arson case at Tesla's Berlin factory in March, and its market share fell to 2.9% from 4.3% in the same period last year. Volkswagen and its Audi, Skoda and SEAT brands together have surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales on the continent, according to Schmidt Automotive Research. Tesla is also no longer the most popular brand in the world, with BYD surpassing Tesla in global EV sales in the last three months of 2023, including a wide range of sedans, sport utility vehicles and cheap subcompact cars. "We are not a car company, we are engaged in artificial intelligence and robots. Musk made his own interpretation in the face of the change of ownership. But he also said that without trade barriers, BYD and other Chinese companies would "almost overwhelm most of the world's auto companies."
Thanks to the support of China's domestic policies and the vast market, Tesla's factory in Shanghai once helped it become the world's most valuable car company, and also made Musk a super-rich man for a time. Tesla's entry into China to make a profit is also using Chinese-made batteries and components to help develop technology from suppliers who later sell the technology to Chinese electric vehicle makers. In the words of French Finance Minister Le Maire, "it is five to seven years ahead of Europe".
"I'm a fan of China, a super fan!" Musk said through a media lens during the whirlwind interview. In the face of the strong rise of domestic electric vehicles, it will take time to test whether Musk's "surprise visit" can once again help Tesla get out of business difficulties. But what is certain is that the development opportunities brought to the electric vehicle industry by China's market blessed land are irreplaceable, and I believe that Musk, who once "slept on the floor", knew (Musk often slept on the floor when he started his business), and Musk, who danced when the first domestic Model 3 was delivered at the Shanghai Gigafactory, also knew.
Author丨Yang Ying, the chief writer of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News