On Feb. 19, Tesla tweeted that a pilot plant in California produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January and is expected to begin delivering a new Model Y with 4680 batteries.
By a standard of about 1,000 batteries per car, 1 million batteries is enough to produce about 1,000 Model Y cars at the Gigafactory in Texas.
Despite the small numbers, if Tesla can produce 100,000 4680 batteries a week, then it can produce 100 Model Y cars per week, which is a good start.
Does this mean that full mass production of the 4680 battery is about to start? Does it represent the cooling of the high prosperity of lithium iron phosphate batteries? Wall Street Insights & Insights Research conducts detailed analysis and explanation of the above two issues.
01
4680 battery full mass production is about to start?
Wall Street Insight Research believes that the mass production progress of the 4680 battery has always been in line with expectations, from the 72% yield that was difficult to look at directly at the beginning, to the 80% later under the unremitting research and development and planning of panasonic and other battery manufacturers, and then to about 90% of the yield that almost meets the mass production requirements, which shows that Tesla and major battery manufacturers attach importance to the 4680 large cylindrical battery.
However, from the perspective of the mass production of the 4680 battery officially announced by Tesla, it is still unrealistic to fully mass-produce and fully load Tesla's various main models, and it will take a while.
According to Tesla's official information, the pilot factory in California produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January, and 10 million 4680 battery cells in a month are only a drop in the bucket relative to Tesla's production and sales rate, which is still a case where 4680 batteries reduce the number of battery cells in a single battery pack.
Because the 4680 battery itself has become larger, the capacity of the internal active material has also become larger, so it has brought about the reduction of the cells of a single battery pack, the previous generation of 1860 cylindrical batteries need 7200 + cells, the second generation of 2170 cylindrical batteries have improved, only 4400 + cells are needed, to the current three generations of 4680 batteries are even more orders of magnitude reduction, only 950 cells are needed, but even so, 1 million 4680 battery cells are only to meet the needs of 1050 Tesla cars Compared with Tesla's production and sales of hundreds of thousands of vehicles per month, it is indeed difficult to achieve comprehensive coverage in a short period of time.
Wall Street Insight Research believes that in terms of Tesla's current 4680 battery barely meets the minimum standard of mass production of 90% yield level and 1 million 4680 battery cells per month production level, as well as Tesla's goal of fully expanding production capacity in 2022, Tesla may only achieve trial installation of some models and a small number of models in a short period of time, Tesla or will gradually match according to its different models and versions.
The first model to be able to use the 4680 battery, in addition to Tesla's own said that the first to carry the 4680 battery will be the Tesla Model Y in the Texas factory, that is, the high-end models Model S, Model X and Cybertruck in research and development, as well as large models such as Semi, which has higher energy density requirements.
02
Lithium iron phosphate is coming to an end?
The mass production of 4680 batteries is actually not surprising, as Tesla's main power battery type, not only Tesla's own power battery manufacturers are conducting research and capacity construction, almost all the world's top power battery manufacturers such as Ningde Era, Panasonic, LG New Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc. are preparing for the arrival of 4680 batteries, but the mass production of 4680 batteries does not represent the end of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
First of all, Tesla has said many times in 2021 that lithium iron phosphate batteries will be an important supporting battery for Tesla's models, and from the specific action, Tesla whether it is a large order for the supply of lithium-ion power battery products signed for up to 4 years with the leading power battery company Ningde Era, or the blade battery supply contract signed by BYD, a battery manufacturer that ranks among the best in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries, Tesla needs lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In general, Tesla will carry out dual-track operation - 4680 batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, Tesla will use different batteries for different models and different versions of similar models, there is no conflict between 4680 batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and there will be no impact on Tesla's battery suppliers of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China.
Secondly, Tesla in 2021 with a sales of up to 936,000 vehicles, for 4 consecutive years to become the world's best-selling new energy vehicle companies champion, its Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y also became a member of the global sales TOP3, in 2022, due to the product shortage tesla said that it will not launch new models but choose to expand production capacity, which means that in 2022 to break through the million sales mark is just the beginning, the annual sales of 1.5 million is not impossible.
However, Tesla wants to expand production capacity to meet sales expectations as the goal, and the current mass production efficiency of 4680 batteries is obviously impossible to achieve, in other words, lithium iron phosphate batteries will still act as the main force.
Finally, the 4680 battery itself is actually only a battery size, not a unique technology of a ternary lithium battery, purely from the material itself there is no breakthrough change, just like BYD's blade battery, so to some extent the use of lithium iron phosphate cathode material as the cathode material of the 4680 large cylindrical battery is not impossible, just to achieve the high energy density preset by the 4680 battery, so it is expected to use ternary cathode material.
Therefore, Wall Street Insight Research believes that the 4680 battery does not squeeze the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries will continue to be the main direction of choice for the standard version of Tesla's models, while other long-haul versions and high-performance versions of the model may use ternary lithium batteries and gradually convert from 2170 cylindrical batteries to 4680 batteries.
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