On February 12, the "Liaoning Release" public account pushed an article entitled "Shenyang Dadong District 'Five Grasps' simultaneously, Striving to Be the Vanguard of Revitalization and Development", which "Combined with the urban renewal of the Wenguan area, open up the industrial development space, and lay the foundation for the landing of major new energy vehicle projects such as Tesla."
As soon as this news came out, it was interpreted by all parties as Tesla's fifth super factory in the world and the second super factory in China will be settled in Shenyang. At present, Shenyang already has Brilliance, BMW and SAIC-GM Beisheng factories, built a relatively complete automotive industry chain and cultivated a large number of skilled technical workers. In addition, Shenyang is not far from ports such as Dalian or Yingkou, which is convenient for Tesla to ship models to overseas markets. In summary, Shenyang is a very good choice for Tesla.
However, with Tesla's official denials and the deletion of relevant articles by the "Liaoning Release" public account, this also means that Shenyang has not reached a final agreement with Tesla.
It seems that the speculation of who tesla's fifth gigafactory will spend will continue.
Tesla urgently needs to expand production
From the unusually "pragmatic" style of Tesla's 2021Q4 earnings report, it can be seen that compared with new products, production capacity may be a more urgent problem for Tesla to solve at this stage.
From the perspective of production layout, Tesla has completed the production of two super factories, namely the Fremont factory headquarters in the United States, its annual planned production capacity of 600,000 units; the Shanghai super factory, the previous annual planned production capacity of 500,000 units, and the Shanghai super factory from the end of last year to April this year to upgrade the production line, the production capacity will be further improved after the transformation.
In addition, the plants in Berlin, Germany, and Austin, Texas, which will start production this year, also have a planned production capacity of 500,000 units. But before that, both plants needed a significant ramp-up period.
In order to meet Elon Musk's sales target of 20 million vehicles per year in 2030, Tesla will inevitably need to build a number of new production bases in addition to these four factories. As one of the world's largest auto markets and electric vehicle markets, and one of the most complete areas in the smart electric vehicle industry chain, the layout of two gigafactories in China is the only way to maximize Tesla's commercial interests.
Therefore, in China, in addition to Shenyang, many cities have been exposed to hope that Tesla can land, including Qingdao and Guangzhou, including a number of first- and second-tier cities.
At present, Tesla is almost always hard to find in the world's major markets. Even in China, the pick-up cycle is basically from 1 month, not to mention overseas markets other than China and the United States. Many of the models produced by the Shanghai Gigafactory have been exported to overseas markets, especially supporting Tesla's delivery in Europe.
With the commissioning of the Berlin factory, Tesla can not only accelerate the delivery of the European market and further increase its market share in Europe, but also free up the Shanghai factory to meet the needs of domestic users as much as possible and help Tesla increase its market share in China.
Compared to GDP
The improvement of local energy levels is actually more important
For major cities in China, the urgency of chasing Tesla is very understandable. Whether it is Tesla or domestic new cars, they have been chased everywhere when choosing a factory site. What's more, in Tesla's current state of short supply in the world, Tesla's production line is a "printing machine". Whether it is domestic sales or exports to overseas markets, it can bring very considerable GDP, employment and taxes, compared to more "PPT car manufacturing" in China, Tesla is much more reliable.
A Tesla gigafactory can not only cultivate a new pillar industry of the local economy, but also drive the overall transformation and upgrading of the local manufacturing industry.
It is precisely because of such a big advantage that Tesla has become a strange commodity, which has also caused the robbery of Tesla across the country, which has also given Tesla the capital to sit on the ground. But in addition to factories, china seems to pay much less attention to Tesla's design center and product research and development center.
Previously, Tesla officially announced that it would lay out a design center in Beijing. According to tesla's current layout in China, Tesla should put its product development center in Shanghai, and it has been rumored that Tesla's $25,000 compact model is dominated by the Chinese team.
Factories can indeed generate very substantial GDP, but most of the profits behind them are obtained by foreign headquarters. Therefore, in order to truly improve the energy level of local industries, it is still necessary to have regional headquarters, or the introduction of functions such as global research and development and design. From the perspective of the Shanghai Municipal Government, under the premise of a Tesla Gigafactory, it must be more hopeful that Tesla can put the regional headquarters function and even some global functions in Shanghai. Although this can not bring immediate GDP, it can significantly enhance the discourse power of Shanghai or Beijing in the era of intelligent networked vehicles.
Set up a factory in India? The short-term probability is not high
In addition to domestic companies scrambling for a second Tesla factory, India has also been hoping to introduce a fifth Tesla global gigafactory.
For Tesla, India is also a promising market. In 2021, the Indian automotive market reached 3.08 million units, an increase of 27% year-on-year. Of course, the base affected by the epidemic in 2020 is low, but the aftershocks of the epidemic in 2021 and the difficulty of chip shortage have not had a relatively large impact on the Indian auto market.
In the long run, India's economic growth potential remains very large. Economic growth will inevitably be accompanied by the continuous expansion of the automobile market. If you consider that India's air pollution is relatively serious, the pressure on the "carbon neutral" and "carbon peak" goals is also relatively large, so the demand for electric vehicles in the Indian market can not be underestimated.
In addition to the market potential, another important reason for stimulating Tesla to set up factories in India is that the current import tariffs on electric vehicles in India are very high, and the tariff rate is between 60% and 100%.
Specifically, the tariff on imported cars priced below Rs 3 million (about $40,000) is 60%, and the tariff rate for imported cars above this price is as high as 100, which is equivalent to doubling the price. Therefore, Elon Musk himself even personally called on India to reduce the import tariffs on electric vehicles, but what he got was the Indian government's appeal for Tesla to set up factories in the local area. Or offset some of the tariffs by increasing the number of local parts purchased in India.
Therefore, in the short term, in order to completely avoid tariff barriers and ensure the competitiveness of Tesla models in terms of price, local production in India is a shortcut. It's just that India doesn't say electric vehicles, that is, the overall automobile industry is relatively weak. In the current Indian domestic automobile market, economical Japanese models, including Suzuki, occupy most of the market share, and European and American brand models are difficult to find, let alone electric vehicles.
In addition, India's infrastructure is relatively weak, the government administration is inefficient, not to mention that the replication of the Shanghai gigafactory took only 357 days to complete the process from the completion of the groundbreaking ceremony to the delivery of the first 15 models, and the establishment of a factory in India may even be slower than the progress of the Berlin factory, which has lasted more than two years. For Tesla, in the long run, it will inevitably lay out a gigafactory in India. But whether to put a fifth gigafactory in India still needs to be marked with a big question mark.
As for India, the United States is also believed to build another gigafactory.
However, from the existing market situation, Tesla's production capacity in the US market is not low, in the short term, two gigafactories can basically meet Tesla's supply to the North American market demand. If the end market demand is very strong after the launch of the Cybertruck and Roadster models, especially if Cybertruck can convert up to 1.2 million pre-orders into terminal delivery, then Tesla is likely to lay out a new gigafactory in the United States in a short period of time, even earlier than the gigafactory in India or the second gigafactory in China, to produce Cybertruck and Semi trucks.
Tesla's current focus is on increasing production capacity and shortening the delivery cycle, which is indeed Tesla's main contradiction at present. However, at present, in the three major auto markets in China, the United States and Europe, competitors continue to launch more competitive electric vehicle models by developing pure electric platforms. Although Tesla still has advantages in brand power and product power, we also have to admit that more and more traditional car companies and models launched by new forces are constantly narrowing the gap between Tesla and Tesla.
With the continuous improvement of competitors in the three-electric system and automatic driving, who has more models for consumers to choose from at that time will be able to better meet the personalized choices of consumers. And once there is no three-electric system and automatic driving generational leadership, tesla can still attract consumers to what extent or need to mark a big question mark.
Therefore, compared with which country or city the fifth gigafactory landed, Tesla still needs to focus more on the research and development of new models and the breakthrough of forward-looking technology. After all, these are the most critical factors for Tesla to ensure that its 20 million sales target for 2030 is achieved.
As for the city in China that is competing for the next super factory, although the Tesla factory is fragrant, if the price tag is too high in order to win the landing of Tesla, it may not be a good deal. After all, in the current market, in addition to Tesla, the domestic Wei Xiaoli and a number of traditional car companies have good projects for local governments to choose.
Remember to click to share, like and watch, recharge me!