In 2021, global sales of new energy models doubled to 6.5 million units, fully driving the development of the global power battery industry, with shipments up to 2 times that of 2020 to 296.8 GWh. Among the top 10 companies with the highest installed capacity, there are 6 Chinese companies and 3 Korean companies, and Panasonic is the only remaining Japanese company. "Ningwang" ranked first in the global market share for five consecutive years, and its market share increased by 8 points to 32.6%. Ewell Lithium energy fell out of the top ten, and the installed capacity of hive energy soared by 430%, ranking tenth.
In the face of strong market demand, expanding production capacity and strong cooperation have become the main theme of the power battery industry in 2021. Trillion Ningwang raised 58.2 billion yuan to expand five battery production bases, and Hive Energy announced that it will increase its annual production capacity plan to 600GWh in 2025. Guoxuan Hi-Tech is officially controlled by Volkswagen, and LG and GM will cooperate in the United States to establish four battery factories...
On the cusp of new energy vehicles, power battery manufacturers are growing wildly, trying to seize the opportunity to soar. Looking closely at the top 10 manufacturers with shipments in 2021, they have their own rhythms and explore their own development paths under the main theme.
Ningwangchao's market share of 80% comes from China
According to the data, the installed capacity of CATL in 2021 was 96.7GWh, an increase of 167.5% year-on-year, and the market share reached 32.6%, ahead of the second place LGES 36.5GWh. Previously, CATL issued a performance forecast that the company's net profit last year was expected to be between 14 billion yuan (about 2.2 billion US dollars) and 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150% to 195% year-on-year. This is the highest level of profit since going public in 2018.
From the above data alone, the "Ning Wang" in 2021 is glamorous enough. At the top, however, crises coexist. The trillion-dollar market value of Ning Wang has been questioned that the bubble is too big, and while the market is witnessing its strength, another word that often accompanies it is "anxiety".
The number one anxiety is customer stability. In 2021, China's electric vehicle deliveries accounted for more than half of the world's total, and CATL gave full play to its home advantage, with domestic power battery loading volume of 77.6GWh, accounting for 80.24% of its total shipments. The top 10 customers in installed capacity are Tesla, Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, etc., accounting for 61.6% of the total installed capacity of the Ningde era. The details are as follows:
Last year, Tesla became the largest customer of Ningwang, accounting for a significant increase in its shipments from 5.6% to 17.5%, becoming the "key gentleman" of Ningwang winning the championship. However, news such as "Panasonic mass-produced 4680 batteries in 2023, the first batch to supply Tesla; BYD will provide Blade Batteries for Tesla" and other news are frequently reported. Although the response of the two has always been relatively ambiguous, for Tesla, "whoever has a low price will use whom", and it is entirely possible to choose multiple suppliers.
There is also a risk of running a single is the third largest customer Xiaopeng, last year there was even news that He Xiaopeng and Zeng Yuqun quarreled over production capacity problems, although He Xiaopeng denied the news, but the introduction of "AVIC lithium battery", "Sunwoda" and other suppliers is indeed a fact. The Volkswagen Group, which is fully promoting the transformation of electrification, has also begun to expand battery factories around the world and hold a stake in domestic battery manufacturer Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which may have an impact on the north-south Volkswagen that currently exclusively supplies. All of the above is a test of the market share of the Ningde era.
The second major anxiety lies in the expansion of international markets. Compared with the domestic market, Ning Wang's international market share is not leading. Statistics show that in addition to China's overseas markets, LG and Panasonic ranked 1-2 with installed capacity of 54.5GWh and 34GWh, and Ningwang ranked third with an installed capacity of 19.1GWh. Under the background of the vigorous development of power batteries and electric vehicles in the United States and Europe, the demand for overseas markets will inevitably rise in the next few years, and how to quickly open up overseas markets has become an urgent problem for Ningwang to solve.
The third major anxiety is that the gross profit margin of the battery business has declined year by year. From 2016 to 2020, the gross profit margin of CATL was 43.70%, 36.29%, 32.79%, 29.06% and 27.76% respectively, and the gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021 was 27.51%. With the decline of subsidies, the profit margin of the whole vehicle has been squeezed, which has been transmitted to suppliers year by year, the price of raw materials has risen, and the competition in the industry has become more and more fierce, which has affected the profitability of Ningwang. Judging from the results of the first three quarters, 2021 seems to be able to stabilize the position, but it is difficult to return to the previous peak.
LGES leads the overseas expansion of Korean companies Panasonic has become the only Japanese company on the list
In the power battery market, there is no better fight with Chinese manufacturers than Korean companies. In 2020, LGES shipments are only 3GWh away from the champion NINGDE era. By 2021, the gap between the two will further widen to 36.5GWh. According to The Korean research agency, China is encroaching on the power battery market that once belonged to South Korea. It is true that Chinese manufacturers have attracted important customers like Tesla by factors such as price, quality, and production capacity.
South Korea's domestic market is limited, and If Korean companies want to gain a larger market share, they must look at the world. In 2021, LG will lead a number of Korean companies to expand their territory in the US market, which is comparable to China's volume, of which LG and GM plan four battery factories in the United States; SK solely owns two factories in Atlanta, usa, and two joint ventures with Ford, and Samsung SDI also sets up a joint venture with Stellantis Group. Korean companies are not only fighting with American automakers, but also have factory layouts in many parts of China.
In addition to building factories and expanding production, Korean companies also have a good performance in the capital market. LGES ushered in the largest IPO in South Korean history at the beginning of this year, raising about 68.2 billion yuan and a market value of 600 billion yuan, becoming the second largest company in South Korea after Samsung in terms of market capitalization. And in the fourth quarter of last year for the first time to achieve profitability, although the market value and Ningwang still have a large gap, but its revenue of 17.85 trillion won (about 95 billion yuan, CATL is expected to be no less than 105 billion yuan in 2021 revenue), at a high level.
Like LGES, SK Innovation officially spun off its battery business in October last year to become a wholly-owned subsidiary, SK On, and may also be preparing for an independent listing. As one of the three major groups in Korea, SK has supplied daimler, Hyundai, BAIC and other manufacturers as early as 10 years ago. In 2021, SK On revenue was 16.9 billion yuan, an increase of 89% year-on-year.
Samsung SDI, ranked 6th, does not have many customers in China, mainly supplying BMW, Volkswagen and other manufacturers. In 2021, Samsung SDI's operating income reached a record 1.06 trillion won (about 5.593 billion yuan), an increase of 59%.
Unlike the strong growth of Korean companies, Panasonic became the only Japanese company on the list. The 33.5% shipment growth rate is the second-to-last position among the ten manufacturers, and the market share has also declined by 6.2%. As a power battery manufacturer that was previously deeply bound to Tesla, Panasonic has pushed LG in a leading position in the market outside China, and now the situation also allows Panasonic to explore a new way out.
In April 2020, Toyota and Panasonic formed Prime Planet Energy & Solutions, a joint venture for power batteries, to jointly develop solid-state batteries for Japanese automakers such as Daihatsu, Mazda, Subaru, and Toyota. At the same time, PPES has also built a factory in China to expand production. If it can become a supplier of the above Japanese companies in the future, Panasonic's market share will be greatly improved.
BYD and Hive Energy rely on their own car companies to cool off
In 2021, BYD's battery installed capacity increased by 167.7% to 26.3GWh, ranking fourth. The Hive Energy Surge quadrupled by more than 4 times to squeeze into the top ten. Different from other battery manufacturers, the two are backed by large car companies, which coincides with the current trend of European and American automakers building their own battery factories to expand production, and even leading this trend.
BYD, which has been working in the field of electric vehicles for many years, ushered in a highlight moment last year, becoming the top new energy sales manufacturer with sales of 730,000 vehicles. BYD itself started with batteries and established an electric vehicle research department in 2003. Blade batteries released in 2020 have become a major factor in promoting the power battery industry to return to the lithium iron phosphate route.
Unlike other suppliers, the pressure of BYD batteries to compete for market share is not great for the time being, and the vehicle and power battery businesses empower each other. In 2021, BYD's own model installed capacity reached 22.25GWh, accounting for 84.6% of its shipments, and its own battery also brought higher gross profit margins to its vehicle business, and the gross profit margin of BYD's automotive business reached 25.2% in 2020, higher than the industry level.
Since the independence of Fordy Battery in 2019, BYD has also been exploring the external market, and the cooperation that has been reached so far includes mainstream manufacturers such as FAW, Jinkang, Dongfeng, changan and so on, but the installed capacity accounts for less than 10%. The monthly "Supply Tesla" hovers between repeated denials and non-comments, and has never landed. Whether it can win Tesla's big orders may become an important step in its battery business to open up outward.
In 2021, Hive Energy shipments increased by 430.8% year-on-year to 3.1GWh, and after only 4 years of establishment, it ranked among the top 10 global shipments, with remarkable performance. Like BYD, Hive Energy is also an affiliate of the car company, formerly known as the Power Battery Division of Great Wall Motors. The enterprise investigation shows that Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motor, is still the actual controller of Hive Energy.
Almost all of Hive Energy's shipments in 2021 will be supplied to Great Wall Motors, and about 5% of the shipments will be supplied to Nezha and Zero Run. In the past two years, the hive has frequently increased its production capacity targets and become a member of the expansion army. The capacity target for 2025 has been adjusted from 40GWh to 320GWh to 600GWh. Chairman Yang Hongxin said that it has received orders for 400GWh in the passenger car field in 2025, with the goal of occupying 25% of the market share in 2025. 3 years to achieve a hundred times growth, the pressure is self-evident.
China Innovation Aviation, Envision Power, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have strengthened cooperation with car companies
Although these three manufacturers do not have a car company background, they have further strengthened their cooperation with car companies through joint venture cooperation or strengthened customer expansion, ranking among the TOP 10.
In November last year, a number of industrial and commercial information of AVIC Lithium Battery changed, and the shareholding system transformation was completed, and the company name was also changed from AVIC Lithium Battery to China Aviation Lithium Battery. It is an early starter in the power battery track, first established in 2007, and after 2010, it became the mainstream supplier of lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, the follow-up chose to attack ternary lithium and gradually fell behind.
In the past two years, China Innovation Airlines, which has gradually caught up, has become the core supplier of GAC Passenger Cars and Changan Automobile, and has also included passenger car customers such as Shangtong Wuling, Zero Run, GAC Toyota, Geely and Dongfeng, and recently accepted Xiaopeng's orders in the conflict between Xiaopeng and Ningwang. Its planned production capacity is 500GWh in 2025 and is expected to reach 1TWh in 2030.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which also started with lithium iron phosphate, increased shipments by 161% to 6.4 GWh in 2021, and was officially controlled by Volkswagen in 2021, cooperating with Volkswagen to open new battery factories in Europe and jointly develop battery technology. Although Volkswagen said that holding Guoxuan Hi-Tech will not affect cooperation with other high-quality battery manufacturers. "But near the water tower first to get the month, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Volkswagen (Anhui), which will focus on electric vehicles, are in Hefei together, hugging Volkswagen's thighs, and the future is clearer."
In 2021, envision power shipments increased slightly, only 7.8%, and its market share also declined. However, as a former Japanese company, Envision Power's international layout is at the forefront, and has laid out 7 major production bases and multiple R&D and engineering centers in China, Japan, the United States, France and the United Kingdom, and is expected to have a global production capacity of more than 200 GWh by 2025. Last year, it reached a cooperation with the French Renault Group to win the Order for Renault's 40GWh to 120GWh power battery for 5 years. It also plans to build a joint plant with Nissan in Europe.
In 2021, the average shipment of the top ten power battery manufacturers in the world's shipments increased by 133.8%, so the market share of Panasonic, Samsung and other shipment growth still declined. Obviously, large customers have a great impact on the pattern of the power battery industry in the rush, and how to better cooperate with car companies has become an inevitable problem for the power battery industry.
The industry predicts that by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be 16.4-18 million, according to the battery demand of 70-100KWh per vehicle, the global power battery demand in 2025 should be between 1150GWh-1800GWh. According to the current planning of various car companies and battery manufacturers, it will greatly exceed this demand range.
Therefore, in the crazy expansion of production, the power battery industry should be vigilant against the overcapacity crisis at any time. From the previous competition for the technical route of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate, it can be seen that technological transformation and upgrading will inevitably be accompanied by the elimination of backward production capacity. Whether it is lithium iron phosphate or ternary lithium in safety, energy density and safety have not reached the ideal state, the future development of the power battery industry will be accompanied by frequent technological innovation.
While increasing production capacity investment, battery manufacturers should also do a good job in technical reserves and strengthen the forward-looking technology layout. Whether it is a solid-state battery, or a hydrogen fuel cell or a technology being explored, Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States are trying to overtake in the corner, and Chinese companies should also maintain a tense state, while expanding production, trying to walk in the forefront of technology, continue to dominate the list, and continue to have industrial advantages.