22/02/17
Lead
Brag first, then punch in the face.
Author 丨 Du Yuxin
Responsible editor 丨 Yang Jing
Edit 丨 Chic
Recently, a video of Yu Dazui's speech at the 2021 Supplier Conference caught fire: "1 year to dry tesla, the annual sales will quickly exceed more than 2 million vehicles,"
"In the future, we will produce higher-configuration cars, surpass the German BBA between 300,000 and 500,000 yuan, and kill them all, that is to say, in the price range of 300,000 to 500,000 yuan, in the domestic automobile market, there is no place for Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi to survive."
According to the scene at that time, it may be a big pie drawn by Huawei to suppliers, but in the automotive industry, this must be a big joke. Some insiders also said that this is not just lip service, this is the lack of the most basic reverence for the automotive industry.
Standing sales flag, placed in the automotive industry, is also not uncommon. At the beginning of each year, most car companies will release sales targets to establish a direction for enterprises and systems. As for the result, it is not easy to say.
Taking advantage of the beginning of the year, "One Sentence Review" also sorted out the sales targets of car companies last year and this year. Through the table, it can be found that the vast majority of car companies have not completed the annual sales target in 2021, but the responsibility is not in the car companies, mainly the lack of core (manual dog head).
In 2022, the annual sales target of some car companies is mostly more than 10% year-on-year, the lowest FAW-Volkswagen is 11.1%, the high is 20% to 50%, and there are such as Chery and Xiaopeng, the goal is to double. What is even more terrifying is that Huawei, compared with the Cyris that bought less than 10,000 vehicles last year, huawei will challenge the annual sales target of 300,000 vehicles this year, an increase of 3650% year-on-year.
Therefore, for sales targets, some car companies still have a clear understanding of reality, seek truth from facts, fight steadily, and leave a good reputation and impression in the industry. As for some car companies, first brag, then punch the face, don't take it seriously, just look at it, but shout more "the wolf is coming".
1
Optimistic 2022
From the perspective of the company's sales target, FAW and Dongfeng have set a sales target of 4 million yuan, and the growth rate will reach about 20%. However, FAW's goal is to go further, reaching 4.1 million vehicles.
Looking at the FAW Group's target for 2021, it is also 4 million vehicles, but in the end, it only achieved a sales record of 3.5 million vehicles in 2021, and did not complete the task set that year.
Among them, in 2021, FAW-Volkswagen broke the outstanding performance of 2 million vehicles in the club for three consecutive years, achieved a wholesale sales level of 1.8 million vehicles, and only completed 77% of the sales target at the beginning of the year. Last year, due to a serious lack of cores, the FAW-Volkswagen brand adjusted the output of many of its products in order to protect Audi, which made the sales of FAW-Volkswagen and many SUVs plummet.
Under the attack of Japanese brands, can the Volkswagen brand maintain its advantage as always? In the new energy transformation of the ID. series, can fuel vehicles still provide absolute increments? The Audi brand continues to soar, moving towards a height of 80 to 1 million vehicles, but under the attack of independent new energy and new high-end brands, whether the advantages of the Audi brand can be maintained or not is a big test for FAW-Volkswagen.
FAW Toyota has been preparing for a long time in order to impact 1 million vehicles. Under the aggregation of five SUV products, including A+ Class Sedan Asia Lion and Lufang, Lingfang and Ruifang, the foundation for growth has been established. But for Pentium and Hongqi, it is basically difficult to achieve 50% growth. As for the reason, the brand power of the Pentium brand is too low, and it cannot stir up too many waves in its own brands, while Hongqi has relied on the large customer market in the past, and it is difficult to form a healthy and sustainable development trend.
Dongfeng Group has not shared the target as detailed as FAW Group did, and the target sales completion in 2021 has basically been achieved.
For Dongfeng Group, the joint venture sector of Nissan and Honda are definitely two big heads, accounting for about half of the group's sales, but Nissan may lose sales because of the loss of Qijun, and in 2022, the new car Nissan Ariya, the new generation of Qashqai and the hybrid models of existing products will be the key to Nissan's competitiveness.
Tomoto can basically maintain the usual trend all the way up, a new generation of CR-V/ XR-V, hybrid Civic, pure electric e: NS1, etc. will also come, as to whether it can break through the million, but also depends on the test of production capacity. In terms of autonomy, there have been some sporadic game breakers, such as Yixuan, T5 and other hot-selling products, but the overall contribution to the group's sales includes strength. High-end pure electric brand Lantu can be expected, but the total amount will not contribute too much.
GAC Group should be said to be relatively stable, especially Guangben and Guangfeng, 2021 also completed the sales target, this year in Guangfeng Xena, Weisa, Fenglanda, Guangben type grid and other products to achieve a breakthrough of 1 million vehicles, which can be expected. In addition, Trumpchi and Eian, the former's shadow leopard + MPV family, as well as the introduction of Toyota's dual engine technology, the latter's many new energy products also have good market performance, which will bring a good increment to GAC's independence.
Several independent brands in addition to Changan, have also released sales targets, although the current Geely is the first independent, but the Great Wall and Chery, there are also the heart to be the first to be independent, especially Great Wall Motors, in the tank, dream, BC and other new brands to promote the confidence, as for 1.9 million is the Great Wall and even all independent brands are difficult to reach the height, it is not so easy.
Geely's sales target of 1.65 million yuan is geely moving towards 1.5 million+ again, but Geely has not completed the sales target at the beginning of the year for three consecutive years, will this year's 1.65 million vehicles have a chance to achieve? Judging from the current trend of Geely, China Star and Lynk & Co have made major breakthroughs in the high-end upwards, and this year's important force is in the hybrid, but the competition of hybrid vehicles is not easy.
Chery's goal of guaranteeing 1.5 million vehicles for 2 million vehicles includes a joint venture brand, and for Chery's own brand, under the impetus of brands such as new energy and Jietu, there should be a chance to strive for the next 1 million vehicles. BYD's momentum should be the fiercest of the current independent brands, especially new energy, market demand orders are hot, and the test of these 1.2 million vehicles is the production capacity and service capabilities.
There are not many new power brands that have proposed clear sales targets, only Xiaopeng, Huawei and Tesla, in addition to Tesla's global plan to move from 940,000 to 1.5 million vehicles is relatively reliable, Xiaopeng and Huawei's goals are indeed a bit scary. Among them, Xiaopeng's sales in 2021 have not yet reached 100,000 vehicles, and this year it has proposed a target of 250,000 to 300,000 vehicles, which is quadrupled. And Huawei is even more outrageous, from less than 10,000 vehicles of annual sales to 300,000 vehicles a year, the big mouth is worthy of the big mouth.
2
From "Target Red" to "Door Black"
After experiencing the turmoil and washing of the industry in 2021, the vast majority of car companies are optimistic about the market in 2022. Mainly the chip problem has been alleviated.
Some automotive chip suppliers said that chip orders from car manufacturers are estimated to exceed 60 million vehicles, but the annual output of the Chinese market is less than 30 million vehicles, which means that car manufacturers have consciously locked in sufficient chip supply from the beginning of the year, and strive not to be affected by chip shortages.
However, it is not only chips that affect sales, consumers' consumption ability and confidence, product strength advantages, competitive patterns, services and guarantees, etc., are all important factors affecting the dynamics of the automobile market and the sales of enterprises. As for whether the end of the year can reach the goal of the beginning of the year, or how to say that it is not successful, it seems that for the overall enterprise, there is no particularly large impact, the car should be built, the car should be sold, but in the long run, it is a kind of bad image accumulation for the brand.
However, from the sales data in January, it can be seen whether the company has the strength to achieve the sales target. Many car companies have set a target sales target for opening the door, but in fact, the sales data in January has given the car companies a blow and ushered in the "opening black".
According to the sales comparison of the data of the association in previous years, January belongs to the peak sales season, and the sales volume in a single month is basically about one-tenth of the annual sales, if you encounter a big year of products of car companies, or the momentum of new products, basically can account for about 8-9% of annual sales. According to this data, combined with the target increase in FY2022, we can basically find out who may not be able to meet the sales target.
For example, Besturn and Hongqi are very likely to drag their feet, resulting in an increase in the difficulty of faw group's overall sales target, And Dongfeng's overall sales are similar to FAW's, depending on whether its joint venture brands can take on heavy responsibilities. Gac Motor Group's data performance in January is very stable, and it is not surprising that it should be the easiest to achieve among the group car companies.
Although the momentum of independent brands is still good now, the goals of the four traditional independent car companies are high, and it should be BYD who is most likely to take the lead in achieving the goal, and the monthly sales of 100,000 vehicles should become the norm for BYD in 2022. Compared with Geely, Chery and the Great Wall should be much more difficult.
The goal of the new forces Xiaopeng and Huawei should be impossible according to experience, sales growth is a slow process, even if there are new products, it also needs the climbing of production capacity and the delivery and service of one by one, at least Huawei's 300,000 vehicles, which is impossible to achieve in any case.
Since it seems that the goals of so many car companies are unreliable, don't the leaders of car companies know? If Yu Dazui does not understand the automotive industry, it is understandable, but those auto people who have been deeply involved in the automotive industry for decades and have seen the ups and downs of the auto market will not understand the reason why sales growth is difficult?
In fact, the senior management of car companies knows better than anyone, just like last year, when a group of car companies shouted the 2025 goal, they were like crazy, and they showed an extremely optimistic attitude towards the future Chinese market. However, these sales targets and figures, either out of the pressure of top-level design, or out of the relationship between suppliers and manufacturers, or out of the degree of optimism of capital for enterprises, have to cheer partners and investors, first grab resources, funds, and have the opportunity to achieve this goal. If you don't shout, don't give confidence to the upstream and downstream industrial chains, to the employees and the system, then there will be no final opportunity.
Therefore, in the face of the sales targets roared out by car companies, it is good to take a look, and it cannot become one of the evaluation indicators of enterprise development, and finally it is necessary to wait until next year when the company delivers the report card, which is the real performance and ability.
At this time, looking at Yu Dazui's flag at the supply and marketing conference, he must have thought in his heart, as long as I am not embarrassed, then the embarrassment is someone else, what can you do with me?
Du Yuxin
Do this line if you don't desperately write
What's the difference between that and salted fish?