Whenever the New Year comes, it is the peak time to return to the hometown to buy a house.
But this year's Spring Festival slot is an exception. Although the Spring Festival of each building is still firm and "not closed", the situation has reversed this year, and the overall market transactions are not active.
Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the consumer market is also more rational, the buyers' wait-and-see mood is higher, and there is a situation where the homecoming home is cold and the expectation of selling is disappointed.
(Source: Kerui)
The main urban area of Kunming is also obviously a new low, and the entire main city has only 0.07 million square meters.
Even if the market is colder than the weather, do people who really have a hard demand for a house really have to give up?
Of course not!
First, let's take a look:
What is the Kunming market in 2022?
By the end of 2021, the dominant stock of commercial housing in Kunming will reach 9.7762 million square meters, calculated according to the average monthly demobilization rate of the past year, and the demobilization cycle will also take 19 months.
(Data source: Kunming Ruili)
This figure already indicates the oversupply trend in the market.
On top of this, the supply of various districts in the main city is decreasing, the pace of supply has also slowed down, a number of housing enterprises have taken turns to carry out discount promotions, and the developer's past "high debt, high leverage, high turnover" real estate development and operation model has been unsustainable. At the same time, this also gives buyers a certain bargaining space.
From the perspective of the market environment, the current Kunming property market is still a buyer's market.
Even if the new housing market is still facing a more severe market downturn, overall, this year's performance will be slightly better than last year's, after all, the policy and temperature are now picking up.
In 2021, large and small regulatory policies are frequently released, which will have a considerable impact on the decision-making of home buyers. However, the biggest impact and the most noteworthy are the "LPR downgrade" and the "school people's conversion to public".
(Picture source Financial Associated Press)
The promulgation of a series of policies is actually a favorable signal for home buyers, and the cost of buying a house has been correspondingly reduced compared with before.
After the LPR reduction, a number of banks in Kunming have successively lowered their loan interest rates, the average lending cycle has been shortened by more than 20 days, and the average mortgage interest rate and lending cycle have returned to the level of mid-2021.
Although Kunming has published a list of some "civil to public" schools last year, the real impact on the housing market will need to wait until the day it is hammered.
For these policies to have a visible effect, it seems that it will take several months of fermentation cycles.
Last year, the national property market regulation and control policy reached 651 times, breaking a new historical record. Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also made it clear that the regulation and control in 2022 will not be lower than last year: adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress in stability and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Overall, 2022 will also be a year in which property market regulation and meeting reasonable housing consumption needs coexist.
There are a few other points that deserve our special attention -
1
The "transitional" mindset no longer applies to the present
Real estate as a bulk transaction type of commodity, the cost of expenditure has never been low, in Kunming, salary income and housing prices do not match the premise, many people want to buy a small apartment or apartment for transition, with the "first get on the car and then replace" thinking, thinking is to settle down first, wait for a few years, want to change from small to large, children to school age, want a good school nearby...
First of all, from the tax to the cost of the house price, itself is not a small amount, the investment of energy, the investment of decoration, not to mention, a suite before and after toss a long time, as well as the first suite, the second suite of the loan interest rate of various troubles, therefore, in the purchase of more careful consideration. As long as it is within the scope of ability, buy a house as large as possible.
Secondly, the change of family life cycle is also the scope of consideration, for example, marriage within two years, the need for parents to live with a baby within three years, or even 2 children, etc., based on this choice of 2 bedrooms and 3 bedrooms or 4 bedrooms, is the hard condition that needs to be considered for buying a house. In short, the "transitional" thinking that was popular in the past no longer applies.
2
To buy a house that someone can "take over" in the future
In addition, there is a need to think about a question: "I bought this suite today, 5 years later, 10 years later, will anyone want it?" "The law of the law of sales: only products that are needed by urban groups have the possibility of being sold."
Even if it is not sold in the future, the product with a price has value!
From the perspective of product attributes, whether it is an apartment or a residence on the market, as long as it is in line with its own family life growth plan, as well as the principle of strong premium, it is a good house in the future. But the specific choice of apartment or residence, where to buy, according to their respective capabilities, according to their own capabilities.
From the scarcity of land to the trend of the forward market, the proportion of the supply market for first-hand housing in the future will be lower than the proportion of supply in the second-hand housing market, and it is only a matter of time before the rules of the inner cycle game are formed.
When the future market is saturated, the urban housing demand is basically satisfied, the first pure demand will no longer exist, the strong competitor in the market will be the improvement of the apartment type, supporting facilities, etc., if you buy a house away from this track, then it will become worthless.
3
The importance of the supporting facilities
Mature area, good location needless to say, where to buy more will not be too bad, and the area that is developing or slightly biased needs to pay attention to, there must be a basic support! There is a subway and a new subway supporting planning is more ideal, there must be a city main road nearby, after all, the traffic is not convenient, travel inconvenience wastes time, live for a long time in the heart is easy to nest fire.
Business and education as well as medical infrastructure are also needed, preferably within a 10-20 minute travel range to meet our basic needs of food, clothing and housing.
If an area itself is bare, the future planning is not, in addition to the product is good, it is still prudent to consider it, such a house is not very likely to have a premium, life is not convenient, just like the previous question said, the future will be taken over, self-occupation is the same, after all, for their own future, it is not an investment.
Based on the current market environment, in the new year, we still recommend buying a house, first of all, we must look for housing enterprises with strong economic strength and good reputation; secondly, do not blindly add leverage, and open up a good retreat for yourself while moving forward.
I believe that everyone will worry about the problem of not being able to pay the house, the developer suddenly reducing the price after buying the house, and the developer running away from bankruptcy, after all, no one's money is blown by the wind.
The last suggestion, real housing investment behavior, should be pressed the pause button.
According to last year's frequent policy regulation and recent statements of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, this year's market tightening will not be less than last year, the space for leverage difference will be smaller and smaller, the investment threshold is also very high, whether it is the full amount or loan, it will form a long-term occupation of capital liquidity situation, the capital turnover cycle is slower, which is not a good investment environment.
According to the theory of economist Li Xunlei, when the annual growth rate of real estate is less than 7%, it is not worth investing, and at this time, investing in speculation is a loss-making business. In the past 2021, there has been turmoil in the Kunming market, and whether this year's increase can reach 7 points is not known, and people who hold the idea of deregulation and a sharp rebound in house prices may need to wake up.
Written at the end,
Buying a house is a very important thing, as long as you think about it, choose what you like, it is perfect.
I hope you can buy the best house in 2022!