So far, almost all the GDP data of China's provinces in 2021 have been released, and I have summarized the following characteristics:
First, China's basic forces are rising. Last year, china's gdp exceeded the 10 trillion yuan mark, if converted into the DOLLAR exchange rate, more than 1 trillion US dollars is the top four regular customers Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, if more than 500 billion US dollars, a total of 13 provinces (including Beijing, Shanghai).
Second, the regional distribution is becoming more and more obvious, the eastern provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang) contributed 35% of the national GDP, which can be described as incomparably strong, the CENTRAL provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei) GDP accounted for 22% of the country, obviously the rise of the central region has been on the road, the epidemic drag has ended, but the gap with the east is still not small, and there is a situation of being pulled apart.
Third, the acceleration of the gap between the north and the south has not been slowed down, in the top 10 provinces, the pattern of the north and south eight two open has not changed, but in the top 20, Shanxi is back, coal prices have helped a lot, we come to compare the GDP changes in these 20 provinces in the past two years, in 2020, the proportion of the southern provinces in the top 20 in China's total GDP is 63%, and in 2021 it becomes 62%, which is still the result of the south (Guizhou) being surpassed, and the northern economy is still in an undesirable state.
If there are many errors in taking provinces alone, for example, Anhui is a province that is "not south and not north", and for example, Henan in the Central Plains is that some areas fall in the south, etc., so let's talk about a problem in detail.
Among the more than 600 cities in the country, there are 24 cities with a GDP of more than 1 trillion yuan, of which 18 are in the south and 6 in the north, and there is a distinctive feature: the northern cities entering the big list are basically provincial capitals or municipalities directly under the central government, while the non-provincial capitals and even non-sub-central cities in the southern cities can come in, and the original behind this phenomenon is worth investigating deeply - from 2000 to 2010, the average annual resident population of the south and the north increased by 5.062 million and 3.958 million, respectively From 2010 to 2020, the average annual resident population of the south and the north increased by 6.55 million and 1.146 million, respectively, and the average annual increase in the south was more than that in the north.
The problem of unbalanced development brought about by population mobility, industrial structure, and the gap between the rich and the poor has become more and more prominent in recent years, and all the gods are also trying to find ways.
Let's start with the development issues that have a broad consensus: weak consumption, supply shocks, and insufficient expectations
First of all, the problem of weak consumption is closely related to real estate, in 2021, eight of the eight provincial capital cities where house prices fell in the country came from the north and two in the south, of which the largest declines were Taiyuan in Shanxi and Shijiazhuang in Hebei, with a decline of more than 3%.
The national real estate squeeze bubble thought that the real estate industry should be innovated, so there were 17 housing companies with different degrees of default, of which the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was a seriously affected area, of course, the most criticized or Evergrande, a giant, played a very bad demonstration role in the market.
In the past, in the expected price increase in house prices, everyone has the confidence and will not have greater concerns, as long as the house has the desire to consume, after all, the family assets are 6-7% in it, and everyone sees the explosive growth of crazy online sales in 08-18 is the best example.
There is action in this aspect, which is bound to cause some movement, and the people's consumption passion will naturally decline, but this is the pain period, and everyone sees every day that we have entered the deep water area of reform and opening up.
Secondly, for the problem of supply impact, the main origin is still in the international, this from the 18-year-old special to take charge of the United States to launch a trade war, the world has been chaotic, the supply structure changes, the intensification of competition during the epidemic interpretation of the "colorful", superimposed on the climate problem caused by the energy crisis, each region is playing its own small calculations, what cattle ghosts and snake gods want to play a key role, even at the expense of the foundation to show their heads, to avoid being ignored.
Take grain, whether it is North America (the Great Flood in the United States, Blizzard), South America (flood) or even Western Europe (rapid conversion of ice and snow), the La Niña incident has been staged wave after wave, the amount of exports is good, the stability is also affected, so in the past two years, grain prices have risen and risen, of course, our country is fine, has sufficient reserves, so it is relatively calm to deal with.
But for enterprises, the impact can not be ignored, so the rise in production costs driven by food prices indirectly affects the development of enterprises, large enterprises are fine, few small and medium-sized enterprises can survive on the basis of various cost surges, then at this time the local government must play a guiding role.
At this time, it is necessary to look at real money and silver, then the economic strength of the north and the south is not in a grade, so the enterprises in the north will certainly not be as good as the southern enterprises, especially in the field of grain, the main role of state-owned enterprises is to ensure the pockets of the people, and private enterprises are the key to economic vitality.
Finally, we talk about the problem of insufficient expectations, the problem is directly that the people's uncertainty about the future wealth growth is getting stronger and stronger, it and the weak consumption belongs to the prosperity and loss, for the people, it is more to see our country in the policy to give sufficient confidence, of course, has now done.
In general, do these three points well, maintain strong economic vitality do not have to worry, and how the northern and southern provinces walk the aisle still depends on themselves, now that "common prosperity" has been put on the agenda, Zhejiang's demonstration zone can open up a new idea for all provinces across the country.
Although many economic data show that Zhejiang is a province where the gap between the rich and the poor is not so obvious, it is not without problems, for example, the economic gap between northern Zhejiang and southern Zhejiang caused by geographical factors is still relatively obvious, and the economic gap caused by the development model of the Zhejiang West Mountains and the eastern coast of Zhejiang is also comparable in the whole country.
Relying on "common prosperity" to create a new economic pattern, the difference between north and south is no longer the difference between heaven and earth, which is the key link of the "Chinese Dream" and the symbol of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.