With the core leadership of the Iranian government visiting Russia and China separately, the strategic cooperation between China, Russia and Iran has begun to enter the "deep water area". Corresponding to this is the different understanding of the trilateral cooperation between China, Russia and Iran in Iran. The conservative hard-line Iranian media believe that the trilateral cooperation between China, Russia and Iran is risky and expresses concern for Iran, while the media with active reform factions believe that continuing to strengthen friendly relations between China and Russia can help Iran solve the current dilemma. Although the China-Russia-Iran iron triangle has been formed, there are still some noises and controversies within Iran, which reminds us that the countries that are friendly with us are not monolithic, the diplomatic work in the direction of the Middle East is very complicated, and the strategic cooperation between China, Russia and Iran is surging in the dark tide.
The Iranian system influences the execution of grand strategies
Due to the current special political system in Iran, in terms of social environment, Iran does not yet have the conditions to implement a long-term strategic cooperation plan. Iran's domestic political environment is not suitable for the implementation of any long-term plan. The basic structure of Iran's power system determines that its political leaders often speak differently from the outside world, while also giving its foreign policy a high degree of flexibility, pragmatism, and large room for adjustment. Iran's supreme spiritual leader has the final say in foreign policy, but the domestic and foreign rules need to be formulated and enforced by the cabinet led by the democratically elected president. Successive Iranian governments have attached great importance to relations with China and Russia, which is determined by the complementarity of the two economies. However, because the reformist government tends to "look west" and the conservative government prefers to "look east", in Iran's diplomatic strategy, the strategic position of China and Russia will rise or fall steadily. In addition, the Iranian president and parliament are elected by the people, and there is a one-year interval between the two major elections, and there are great variables in public opinion that are seriously affected by the external situation. If the president in power at the same time and the parliament are represented by each other, the result is that government policy is often constrained by parliament. In foreign policy, for example, both factions accuse the other of "looking east" or "looking west" for deviating from the basic foreign policy principle of "no east, no west" set by supreme spiritual leader Khomeini. As a result, after hardliners dominate parliament, Europe sees little point in negotiating with the Iranian government. So far, Iran has launched a total of 6 "five-year national development plans", but the final implementation rate has not reached 50%. Fierce factional competition and political games, coupled with the rise of radicalism and populism, Iran's foreign investment environment is very unstable, and it is difficult for foreign capital to achieve long-term profits. However, in Iran's long-term strategic cooperation plan with China and Russia, economic cooperation is the core content. As a result, even Iran's domestic political and economic elites have serious questions about whether China and Russia can have the political will to participate in the plan.
Factional struggles sway Iran's foreign course
At present, the hard-line conservatives in Iran do not recognize the strategic cooperation agreements between other countries and the economic development achievements achieved through such strategic cooperation agreements, in their view, the policy of moderates has separated Iran from the current policy of the supreme spiritual leader, and it is shameful to expect external support rather than self-reliance, so they oppose the Iranian government's action of seeking support in the world, attributing the root cause of all problems arising at home and abroad to the incompetence of the Iranian government, and trying to influence Iran's foreign policy. The subsequent lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran has not been complete, and the condemnation of Iran's missile program by Western countries and Iran's defeat on the Syrian battlefield have become the handle of criticism of the moderate government. The unilateral withdrawal of the US government from the Iranian nuclear agreement seems to confirm the correctness of the propositions of hard-line conservatives in Iran, they make a big fuss about it, urging the Iranian government to also withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement, coupled with the heavy blow of the US economic sanctions on the Iranian economy, currency devaluation, earthquakes, floods, locusts, new crown epidemic and other disasters one after another make the Iranian economy close to the brink of collapse, people's lives have become increasingly difficult, seriously reducing the credibility of the moderate government in Iran, so that the hardline conservatives began to emerge. In many areas, such as parliamentary elections, it has begun to gain momentum across the board. In this way, the Iranian government's governance and diplomatic capabilities have been greatly reduced, weakening the Iranian government's will to adhere to the Iranian nuclear agreement and strive to maintain and save the comprehensiveness of the agreement, and the obstruction and resistance effect of ultra-conservative forces in Iran is a major challenge facing Iran's foreign policy at present and will continue to face.
Complex diplomatic factors cannot be ignored
The sino-Russian cooperative relationship with Iran is a response to the "threat" of the United States. Alaedin Borojerdi, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Iranian Parliament, acknowledged that the US crackdown on Iran is an important reason for Iran's development of relations with China and Russia. "The Americans plan to adopt a tougher policy toward Iran, so we need to strengthen relations with eastern countries, especially with China and Russia." Iran's supreme spiritual leader Khamenei also stressed that due to the pressure of US sanctions, Iran attaches importance to relations with countries in the East, attaches importance to relations with neighboring countries, and those countries with which we share common interests should become the priority targets of our foreign policy. Russia also believes that the containment between the United States and the West is an important driving force for Russia's relations with Iran. Russia sees the development of relations with Iran as a "tool to achieve Russia's diplomatic strategic objectives", and Russia hopes to intervene in the Iranian nuclear issue to "bring the international pattern closer to a new world order that ends US unilateralism and establishes a multilateral cooperation mechanism". Iran sees itself as a "Middle Eastern power" and seeks to reshape the middle east's geopolitical order. The long and glorious history has shaped the great power arrogance mentality in Iran's national mentality, daring to resist Western sanctions and oppression, and Iran still hopes to dominate the sensitive issues in the Middle East. On the Iraq issue, Iran has formed a competitive relationship with the United States; on the Syrian issue, Iran and Russia have competed for dominance; on the Palestinian-Israeli issue and the Gulf Shiite issue, Iran has long been opposed to the United States' Central ASEAN countries Israel and Saudi Arabia, respectively. For China, it is necessary to adhere to a cautious attitude in handling diplomatic relations with Iran, because China's friendly countries in the Middle East are not only Iran, but Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and even Israel, which have antagonistic relations with Iran, have maintained relatively healthy diplomatic relations with China. The development of relations between China and Iran is bound to take into account the impact on neighboring countries in the region, which also makes the Sino-Iranian strategic cooperative partnership actually have certain boundaries. Under the influence of complex diplomatic factors, it is not surprising that the strategic cooperation between China, Russia and Iran has shown the characteristics of undercurrents, and as long as the manipulation of the United States in the Middle East exists for one day, the close cooperation between China, Russia and Iran will continue.