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Although the problem of chip tension has been alleviated, it has not been completely solved, for many reasons, and it is impossible to completely meet all the needs for a while and a half. Two of the biggest markets are affected, one is the smartphone market, especially 5G mobile phones; the other is the automotive market, for car manufacturers, because of the chip problem, the production capacity has been affected to a certain extent, including Tesla is no exception, but the degree of impact is slightly different.
1. Tesla says the chip shortage will continue until next year
As we all know, Tesla's market share in the new energy vehicle market is the highest, the influence is also the largest, of course, the profitability and the market appeal brought by it, including the right to speak in the supply chain, are very high. Similar to Apple's influence in the smartphone market. Even so, both are affected by chip tension.
Tesla said it expects chip shortages to continue throughout this year and will only ease next year. Musk said factory capacity is still increasing, and the panic purchase of chips by automakers is a big reason for the slowdown in supply chains. In other words, because of the panic hoarding behavior, the supply chain is tense. Of course, this is only one aspect of the reason, and the greater impact is because the supply of the entire industrial chain has deviated.
Previously, a consulting firm said that the chip shortage caused the global auto industry to lose $210 billion in revenue in 2021 and lost production of 7.7 million vehicles. There are reports that Tesla, in response to supply chain problems, decided to remove an electronic control unit in the bogie of the Chinese-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, while usually there are two electronic control units in the bogie of the vehicle. The market believes that Tesla's current reduction means that it will not be possible to make all existing vehicles self-driving cars through software upgrades in the future.
Because Tesla's autopilot technology mainly refers to "obtaining L3 level autopilot capabilities (allowing drivers to use Tesla's off-the-hand driving function under normal driving conditions)" requires a dual electronic control unit system. If the reduced vehicle wants to obtain autonomous driving capabilities, it is undoubtedly impossible to achieve it through software upgrades. Musk also tweeted, "This year has been a supply chain nightmare, and this nightmare is not over yet." ”
2. Volkswagen said that the chip shortage in the second half of this year is expected to ease
The head of the purchasing department of volkswagen group said that it is expected that the global shortage of automotive chips will not be completely resolved in 2022, but it is expected to be further alleviated in the second half of the year. According to the latest data from AFS statistics, from the beginning of 2021 to the end of January this year, the chip shortage problem has led to a cumulative reduction of about 1.157 million vehicles in the world; so far this year, the number of car production cuts has exceeded 370,000.
Volkswagen believes that "there is obviously a structural imbalance in the chip industry, and the demand for chips in the automotive industry will continue to rise." Therefore, instead of making a claim against the chip supplier after the chip shortage, it is better to cooperate more closely with the chip supplier as soon as possible to seize more initiative. ”
Ford will cut north American car production in the near future. General Motors predicts that semiconductor shortages will decrease in the second half of 2022; Hyundai predicts that chip supply will return to normal levels in the third quarter of this year. In order to deal with the chip problem, Ford is also trying to increase the number of development opportunities. It is reported that Ford has reached a partnership with GlobalFoundries to reduce its dependence on TSMC's mature process chips. Ford said it relies heavily on TSMC chips, and if it is left to its own devices, its own production capacity will be at extremely high risk as the industry shifts to more advanced nodes.
To that end, Ford will invest in working with GlobalFoundries to develop chips for a mature process, though it will be difficult for the chipmaker to produce such chips in the United States in a short period of time. Of course, layout in advance is also a way to deal with the rainy day. More manufacturers still rely on traditional chip foundries such as TSMC, and more capacity of TSMC gives mobile phone companies, especially Apple mobile phones, which is the source of TSMC's profits.
3. Chip tension is caused by multiple effects
The tension in automotive chips is caused by many factors. For example, technology trends such as electrification and assisted driving/autonomous driving may threaten chip production. Automobile companies turning to new energy vehicles and intelligent vehicles need a large number of electronic product support, and the electronic process needs more intelligent chip support. But because of the well-known reasons, on the one hand, the lack of industrial workers, on the other hand, the tension of physical basic units, are the potential reasons for the shortage of automotive chips.
Qualcomm said it should give priority to the auto business. Apple Cook also said that while semiconductor manufacturers have the incentive to focus on the latest and most expensive chips, there are serious supply constraints for chips from mature processes, although less complex chips for power management and display devices are improving this quarter.
Due to the shortage of chips, the enthusiasm of the downstream industrial chain for hoarding goods has prompted the supply of upstream fabs to exceed demand, and many large wafer foundries, including UMC, TSMC, and Samsung, have repeatedly announced the increase in chip foundry prices, of which the highest increase has reached 30%. In addition, the raw materials for making chips, such as silicon and resin, have also ushered in a sharp rise, and the prices of related components have risen all the way, and the prices of many special components have risen by more than 40%, which together have led to a sharp rise in chip prices. But even so, it is still a hard core to find.
For the global chip industry, the proportion of demand in the automotive industry has not been high, but after the surge in demand for electronic consumer goods, a large number of production capacity has gradually shifted to electronic consumers; the strong recovery of the automotive market requires a large amount of chip support, but the supply capacity of chip companies to the automotive industry has been significantly insufficient, which has greatly affected the automotive production capacity.
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