On February 8, Beijing time, the global power battery leader Ningde era, once again ushered in a plunge, the intraday decline was once close to 10% (the ChiNext board rose and fell by 20%, so it has not yet fallen to a stop), the closing decline of 6.66%, such a one-day decline for any stock is a plunge, especially the Market Value once exceeded 1.5 trillion Ningde era.
On the past February 7, south Korean market research institute SNE Research released the 2021 global power battery installed capacity ranking, CATL achieved a market share of 32.6% with a global installed capacity of 96.7GWh, ranking first in the world again, which is the fifth time that CATL has topped the throne of the world's largest power battery company.
According to the 2021 annual performance forecast released by CATL at the end of January, it is also excellent, with a net profit of 14-16.5 billion, an increase of 1.51 times to 1.96 times. Why did the Ningde era still have a continuous correction of stock prices, or even a one-day plunge?
In fact, the entire new energy vehicle track has rebounded after entering 2022, including the A-share Ningde era, BYD, and the three major lithium companies, including Tesla in the United States (even the best financial report in Tesla's history of the 2021 financial report fell 12% on the second day of the announcement), as well as the new forces listed in the United States, Three Fools Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, which fell continuously, and Weilai hit a new low in the past year (the opportunities and risks of these companies are analyzed in detail later in the article).
For all investors, will there still be investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle track in 2022, will it be completely extinguished, or will there be serious differentiation?
01
The highly valued new energy track fell collectively
After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the global central bank released water, and global asset prices ushered in a sharp rise. The bright prospects of the new energy vehicle track have attracted a large amount of funds to kill, and the target of related companies has been pushed up by more than 10-25 times in less than two years, the Ningde era has exceeded the market value of 1.5 trillion yuan, BYD is incomparably close to 1 trillion yuan market value, and Tesla has exceeded the market value of 1.2 trillion US dollars, becoming the fifth largest market value technology company in the United States.
Entering 2022, the biggest change in the market environment is the expectation of the Fed to raise interest rates, resulting in the secondary market first on the high valuation of the target, which is why the global new energy track collectively pulled back, of course, including the United States through the SPAC or the traditional way of IPO of automatic driving and lidar targets.
There are two obvious examples, namely CATL and Tesla, under the unprecedented financial report, the stock price did not rise as expected, but plummeted.
On January 26, 2022, Tesla released an unprecedented 2021 Q4 financial report and 2021 full year financial report after hours, in 2021 Tesla earned $5.644 billion a year, up 554.76% year-on-year, which is such a financial report, Tesla once rose 8% intraday, but also turned green during the session, the next day it directly plummeted nearly 12%, the market value fell below $1 trillion, and it has still hovered below the stock price on the earnings report day.
Some people attribute the collapse of the Ningde era, Tesla, BYD and so on to the soaring price of battery raw materials. The price of lithium carbonate, one of the raw materials for power batteries, has soared, which has approached 400,000 yuan per ton, and the recent single-day price increase has exceeded 10,000 yuan per ton, which is bound to squeeze the profitability of downstream power battery factories. However, it is strange that Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have also plummeted.
The decline in the era of Tesla, BYD, and Ningde is a collective killing behavior of the market for high valuations, even if the performance soars, but the price-earnings ratio of these targets is still more than 100 times. Lithium battery raw material stocks fell because of the impact of the bulk cycle.
Apple is still close to the all-time high of $3 trillion in market capitalization because Apple's price-to-earnings ratio is only 28, Amazon's excellent financial performance soared by 16% in a single day, and its price-to-earnings ratio is only 48.
From an investment point of view, opportunities are falling out, and dangers are rising.
02
The new energy track fell out of the opportunity for differentiation
In 2022, the new energy vehicle track was hit hard at the beginning of the year, indicating the difficulty of the new year.
However, will the new energy track continue to have investment value in 2022? Looking at all industries, no industry is larger and more certain than the new energy vehicle track. However, the target of the track may appear seriously differentiated.
In the last year of China's new energy vehicle subsidies in 2022, the industry maintains an extremely optimistic attitude towards sales, believing that sales have soared. Under such a market premise, where are the opportunities for industry participants?
Although the Ningde era has reached the top of the throne of the global power battery brother for five consecutive years, the empire has collapsed. More and more customers choose to open a B supplier, and Xiaopeng Automobile has taken the first step and fixed the aviation lithium battery. It is rumored that Tesla will also designate BYD's blade battery, although Tesla has placed a super order of nearly 50GWh for the Ningde era, but the shortage of power batteries is one of the bottlenecks in Tesla's production capacity.
The market size of the Ningde era will increase, but the market share will decline.
BYD and Tesla, the sales of these two car companies may not have to worry in 2022, are holding huge orders. But the situation is different between the two. BYD walks on two legs, DM-i models and EV models at the same time, battery production capacity also increases, but the short board is intelligent and profitability.
Tesla sales in 2022 will certainly continue to soar, two new factories will be put into production, the Shanghai factory will also expand production, in addition, Tesla in addition to holding a huge number of orders, there are CyberTruck more than 1.2 million orders, in addition, there will be a breakthrough in new revenue, including the much-anticipated Tesla app store. In 2022, Tesla's software services may begin to increase, and if FSD revenue is superimposed, Tesla software services revenue may be in the billions of dollars in 2022.
As for Wei Xiaoli, Xiaopeng's sales will rise, may be the first month of sales of more than 20,000 new forces, Weilai needs ET7 and ET5 volume, but ET5 to September 2022 to start delivery, this may have a limited contribution in the whole year, the ideal single model, plus the possible delivery of full-size SUVs, the market size is small, the risk will be relatively large. However, the problem wei Xiaoli is facing at the same time is that the new orders at the beginning of 2022 are affected by the subsidy decline, and the decline in new orders is very serious.
Which of the above targets does the reader think is the most worth investing in?
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