Last night, the three major three major indices of the US stock market went all the way down, technology stocks were hit hard, and the new car-making forces were also hit hard, Rivian fell 7.79%, Tesla fell 7%, Ferrari Future fell 6.32%, Lucid and Weilai fell 6%, and a number of new energy car companies followed suit.
Affected by this, tram stocks in the Hong Kong stock market today have plummeted from the pre-market auction, with Xiaopeng Automobile falling more than 6%, Ideal Automobile falling 5.5%, and BYD shares falling 2.3% in the morning.
As far as the new energy vehicle sector is concerned, there is no news for individual stocks, which shows that this round of decline is still contributed by the external environment.
First, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to exert pressure on US stocks. Ukraine declared a national emergency, and the European Union and the United States announced new sanctions against Russia. According to CCTV, Putin announced the recognition of the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic and instructed the Russian military to ensure peace in the Donbass region. Affected by this, the market risk appetite has dropped significantly, the authority of agricultural prices has risen, last night's US Treasury bonds, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing", slowed down the downward speed, and the main contract ZNH2 of CBOT10-year US Treasury futures closed at 126.6093, down 0.26%, with a trading volume of 3.774 million and a position of 2.509 million. The macro team of China Merchants Securities believes that the geopolitical risks of Russia and Ukraine continue to ferment, and the short-term impact on fundamentals is limited, but it has brought great uncertainty to the global economic outlook, resulting in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have eased, but subject to the current large inflationary pressure in the United States, the market still expects the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time at the March conference, but the mainstream expectation of interest rate hikes has dropped from 50BP (the expected probability as of February 22 is 25%) to 25BP (the expected probability as of February 22 is 75%).
The second is that the Expectation of the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March is heating up, since the first two weeks, the US January CPI growth rate refreshed the record for four decades, the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates have become more and more intense, once the interest rate hike lands, the stock prices of new energy vehicle companies that have been injected with a large amount of foam in the big release water may be difficult to maintain a high level. Even Tesla, which has the strongest performance, has been killing valuations since 2022, and has fallen by 27.7% since the beginning of the year.
Third, a new variant of BA.2, which is more contagious and more severe, has emerged in Omi kerong. According to the latest research results from the University of Tokyo in Japan, compared with the current epidemic of the new coronavirus Omilton BA.1, the BA.2 subtype variant not only spreads faster, but may also cause severe disease. The researchers infected hamsters with BA.2 and BA.1 virus strains, respectively, and found that hamsters infected with BA.2 were more ill and had more severe lung damage. The researchers found that BA.2 may even circumvent some of the antibodies produced by the vaccine and are also resistant to some therapeutic drugs. Cases of the variant virus have been reported in a number of countries, including 90% of the new cases in Denmark, and there has been a rebound in the number of deaths caused by covid-19 in Denmark. The emergence of new variants means that recent judgments that equate Omiljunn with the common flu are difficult to establish, and may have a greater impact on countries that adopt the virus.
It is undeniable that new energy vehicles are one of the few tracks with both growth and certainty in the world, but after the frenzy of 2021, the valuation of new energy vehicles has gradually become the consensus of the market, even if there is no role in the external environment, the bubble will gradually fade, at that time, the inner volume of new energy vehicles may really begin.