In the context of the Sino-US game environment, people's eyes are often focused on the high-tech hardware field of chips, and ignore a new battlefield: the battle of new energy vehicles!
Why are people focusing more on chips? First, because chips are related to the foundation of the technological revolution, and second, we are really at a disadvantage in this field. But in the field of new energy vehicles, we are better or worse with the United States, which is really a big topic that can be discussed.
How difficult is the rise of Electric Vehicles in China?
When it comes to new energy vehicles, most people may think that this is an industrial revolution that has only emerged in recent years, but the arrival of a new era will definitely require the ideas of great pioneers and the accumulation of power for a long time. For new energy vehicles, this great pioneer is no one else, it is Qian Xuesen!
On August 22, 1998, Qian Lao was more than 80 years old, but when he thought about the problems China faced in the automotive field, he resolutely wrote a letter to Zou Jiahua, who was then vice premier of the State Council. It is suggested that China's automobile industry should skip the gasoline and diesel stage and directly enter the new energy stage of reducing environmental pollution.
In the letter, Qian Lao also preliminarily analyzed the background of the era of international new energy vehicles, and believed that a battery test base in Guangdong could be directly used for the research and development of new energy vehicles.
Judging from today's pattern, the forward-looking nature of this letter is very far-reaching and profound.
So why didn't we listen to Qian Lao's opinion at the beginning, and turned around to conquer new energy vehicles? Maybe now it has long been riding the dust in this regard, and it is neck to the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries.
In fact, twenty years ago, the gap between us and the developed countries in the West was huge, and we could not catch up in terms of technology or industrial chain. If you abandon the internal combustion car at once and turn all your strength into new energy vehicles, it is inevitable that it will be a bit ambitious, and the cost of this trial and error is too large. Even at present, the state is also strategic and step-by-step regulation, and a stage has a goal, not overnight.
What's more, as early as 1991, we have listed electric vehicles as a key scientific and technological research project in the "Eighth Five-Year Plan", and Qian Lao's suggestion has a theoretical basis, but it is inevitable that some seedlings will be promoted.
In China, as long as it is something that the government wants to invest in, there is nothing that cannot be done. At that time, several research centers such as FAW, Dongfeng and Sinotruk had begun to quietly develop. In 1995, Wang Chuanfu founded BYD Technology, which may be an important cornerstone in China's new energy vehicle field.
2000 was the year when China's new energy vehicles were germinating.
When the automobile has become a necessity in most people's lives, and urban transportation and environmental protection problems are becoming more and more serious, some people will take the lead in setting their sights on new energy vehicles. Experts from more than a dozen universities led by Tsinghua University jointly wrote to the State Council, proposing to "develop clean energy for cars as the starting line for the leapfrog development of China's automobile industry." In January of the following year, the Ministry of Science and Technology set up a major special project for electric vehicles in the 863 plan.
In fact, at this stage, China is still at a disadvantage in the international competition of new energy vehicles, and the United States and Japan in the same period have far surpassed us. What's more, in the 1990s, the United States worked with many Western countries to create a "Wassenaar Agreement", which prohibited the export of key equipment such as precision instruments and machine tools to China, which was equivalent to blocking our high-end manufacturing industry.
In addition to suffering, we also have internal worries.
The first is the patent issue, where we need to remember a great man in the battery industry: Hitachi University of Technology Professor Wang Jisan.
There is not much information about the old professor, only an option lawsuit published in Guangming Daily in 2005. In fact, this lawsuit has affected the development of New Energy Vehicles in China to some extent.
In the early 1990s, Wang Jisan made certain research achievements in the invention of nickel-metal hydride rechargeable battery "infiltration technology" and the development of hydrogen-absorbing alloy materials, and successively obtained domestic and foreign patent authorizations. But the good times did not last long, unable to wait for the HIT team and the Zhuhai Municipal Government to show their skills, somehow, these patent plans have been pirated by a number of domestic battery manufacturers, and at the same time, Guangdong Nanhai Shida Battery Co., Ltd., which also has patent rights, has started a price war.
At that time, this old man who was nearly 80 years old often took the patent certificate to these infringing companies to argue with reason, but most of the end was to be swept out. In desperation, he could only go to court, and although the result was that although more than 300,000 yuan was awarded, the cost of fighting the lawsuit alone was as high as more than 800,000 yuan.
Wang Jisan said: This kind of "take-ism" that uses infringement as a means is no secret in some industries in the mainland, and infringement has enriched individual enterprises, disrupted the market, and easily put inventors and property owners to death.
When asked if he would patent the remaining research techniques, Professor Wang Jisan looked dazed and obviously heartbroken.
In March 2007, out of nowhere, a "Proposal for Developing Vehicle Power Technology to Reduce the Pressure on Transportation Energy" came out of nowhere. It believes that "until there is no major breakthrough in large-capacity batteries and fuel cells that can be mass-produced, the automotive industry should not participate in the research and development of electric vehicles or fuel cell vehicles with uncertain futures." ”
This openly contradictory proposal is nothing more than a siege war cloaked in academic garb to hinder industrial technological progress.
This proposal did cause controversy and discussion within a certain range, coupled with the "public knowledge" rampant in that era, many people "started from reality" and believed that electric vehicles were a promising cause.
The essence of this farce is that the manufacturers of traditional internal combustion engines see that the development of new energy vehicles will have a huge impact on themselves, but they lack technical advantages and are unable to compete.
Fortunately, this storm was quickly suppressed, and did not set off too much wind and waves, but then there was another problem in front of us.
In the new energy automobile industry under the strong support of the state, there are many phenomena of indiscriminate charging. For example, some traditional car companies just empty a new energy shell, and then cheat under this subsidy policy.
For this phenomenon, it is not that effective control cannot be done, but everything is too big, and what we need is the final result. Therefore, in the past few decades, a series of brands such as the future that have really sunk their hearts to specialize in new energy vehicles have stood out and attracted the injection of domestic and foreign capital.
At a time when we have achieved the goal of "outside must first be inside", the electric vehicle market in the United States is also quietly changing.
Competition in the field of electric vehicles in China and the United States
The game between China and the United States in the field of electric vehicles actually began in 2008.
After Wan Gang, then The Minister of Science and Technology of China, went to the United States to personally drive a Tesla electric car, he saw the opportunity and came back to directly work hard to develop domestic electric vehicles.
In 2009, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly launched the "Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles" project, and planned to develop 10 cities per year through financial subsidies, and each city launched 1,000 new energy vehicles.
This can be regarded as a landmark starting point for China's new energy vehicles, and in the past ten years, it is not only to make people realize that new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, but more importantly, the construction of the entire market. More and more enterprises and capital have heard the wind and begun to invest heavily in the field of new energy vehicles in China.
To tell the truth, we have been doing things to catch up with Western countries, and the field of new energy vehicles is a rare blank battlefield. Here, we have no experience to learn from, no model to copy, everything has to be explored by ourselves. While full of energy, it is inevitable that there will be some wandering.
We originally planned to let traditional car companies complete cross-era feats, but after a few years of practice, we found that those emerging companies or cross-industry companies are more dynamic, which is the same as the United States.
As early as the 1990s, Clinton listed new energy vehicles as a key target, but the three major car companies (GM, Ford, and Chrysler) were all interested in this, but they were overtaken by Tesla, which was not known at the time.
In fact, this point is easy to think of, a large group, company, there will often be several kinds of inconsistent opinions, and these traditional car companies are inextricably linked to the internal combustion engine. This kind of cross-industry upgrade, a little careless is a big problem, light investment is adrift, heavy on their own rice bowl. Therefore, let the car companies that already have a family and a business do this kind of thing, the source of power is insufficient, but there is no worries about the stunned boy to do it, and he is more angry.
China clearly has an advantage in this regard, and after 2011, we encouraged cross-border car manufacturing, especially some companies in the automotive field that are in a full-white state. This structural force is pushing, and it is obvious that doing things is more effective with less.
China, on the other hand, has an advantage that no other country can match – a market.
At the beginning of reform and opening up, we were faced with a blank environment without funds and technology. At this time, we can only use the most basic way, that is, to take the market or technology. From automobile manufacturing to mobile phone assembly, production lines have been rolled out in China, forming a complete supply chain from raw materials to production, processing, transportation and sales.
Although foreign capital is making a lot of money in the middle, it can also enhance our economic strength on the side, and second, it has also solved some jobs. At the same time, this will weaken the competitiveness of domestic brands, and even if they do not have core technologies, they can only be regarded as a factory, not a company.
In the field of new energy vehicles, China and the United States go hand in hand, but the United States does not have a vast market environment like ours, so sales are not optimistic.
In 2020, global sales of new energy vehicles will be about 3.24 million, of which China accounts for 1.3 million and the United States only accounts for 300,000. In terms of future market expansion, I think China also has a better prospect than the United States.
First, the population base is there, China is still the most populous country, and the consumption potential is still vast. Under such conditions, China's new energy vehicle market may show a fierce scene of private companies and foreign companies competing with each other, and this benign collision will actually promote China's supporting facilities in this field to be more perfect.
Second, China's policy is more driving force, and this policy benefit is not only the intuitive aspect of car purchase subsidies, but also the "preference" for new energy vehicles in travel. As far as the general public is concerned, the number limit has become one of the daily anxieties, and the rise of the new energy vehicle market has quickly solved these basic travel problems.
The target user group of new energy vehicle companies is not only carless, but many traditional internal combustion car users do not mind starting a new energy vehicle with a good price.
Third, new energy vehicles will drive the development of new industries, which is more in line with the "double carbon" plan.
For example, travel apps such as Didi have mostly spawned new careers under the sharing economy model. Although this profession is extremely mobile and the relevant norms are still imperfect, one of the advantages is that it is easy to get started. As long as you have a driver's license and new energy vehicles, you can be a suitable Didi driver.
Therefore, it is often seen that people facing midlife crises or transition periods of career change can run Didi.
The new energy vehicle companies in this mode are more in line with the energy conservation and emission reduction targets we have set.
Fourth, the countryside has become one of the main battlefields for the next new energy vehicle.
To achieve the "double carbon" goal, it is not enough to focus on the city. China was a big agricultural country in the past, and is still a big agricultural country, and the popularization of green energy should be deployed in the countryside in advance to lay a good foundation for the upcoming digital countryside and green rural economy.
Rural areas not only have a more suitable charging environment, but also their distance is often short-distance travel, which is more cost-effective for rural users. In terms of sales in 2021, non-restricted cities contributed nearly 70%.
The fly in the ointment is that the objective environment set by most new energy models is still urban streets, and the demand for rural users has not been as perfect as possible, and the price is also slightly higher. But I believe that in a few years, the potential of the rural market will be fully exploited.
What about the development of the US electric vehicle market?
Biden has emphasized China's leadership in new energy vehicles more than once, and he has a vague feeling of hatred for the current situation in the United States.
Last year, at the age of 79, he also experienced a Ford F-150 pickup electric car, and since then he has boldly announced an "electric vehicle support program" worth about $174 billion to encourage domestic employment, car companies and other projects.
Biden's plan is mostly to promote infrastructure projects for new energy vehicles in the United States, such as charging piles, etc., or to replace school buses and administrative vehicles. If you want to say that real money and silver are posted to the outside, it may also be for car companies and local car companies.
In this regard alone, Biden really has a bit of Trump's shadow.
It is worth mentioning that Biden does not seem to be particularly fond of Tesla, and in the latest subsidy proposal, it only mentions Companies such as Ford and GM, and excludes Tesla. This may be because Tesla's main market is China, and in the Sino-US trade war, Tesla has also sued the US government for tariffs. Coupled with some recent tax problems, Biden hates the local first electric vehicle company.
At this juncture, Tesla is excluded and "marginalized", is it a good thing or a bad thing for the United States? We have to see how the United States will continue to develop in the follow-up.
Under the background of global energy conservation and emission reduction, new energy vehicles are an inevitable trend in the future, and now China and the United States are frantically working hard to expand the market, which is not only the marketing of finished products, but also the competition in the upstream supply chain is more intense.
In the next part, we will talk about the game between China and the United States in the upstream market.