Take a closer look at Tesla's 2021 Q4 call recently and see what happens in 2022. Now it's possible to distill and deduce the following information —
1) There will be no new cars in 2022. In other words, the low-cost $25,000 Model Q is expected to be launched in 2023, and it is likely that the focus at this stage is to deploy production capacity at four bases.
2) The 4680 battery has been partially stockpiled, and the model equipped with the 4680 battery will be available in Q1 2022. From the current point of view, the 4680 battery model of the Texas factory will be launched first, while the Berlin factory will continue to use the 2170 battery, the two battery models will be carried out simultaneously in 2022, with Tesla's own production and supplier supply, 2022 will become a very important turning point.
3) Chip restrictions are also a challenge for players like Tesla who can flexibly convert and have extremely high priorities in chip suppliers (mainly 50% increase in demand in 2022), so for the automotive industry, chips will be a big bottleneck in resuming production growth in 2022.
Figure 1 2022 mainly looks at the progress of two plants commissioning equipment
Part 1: Tesla's business growth
From the chart below, Tesla achieved rapid revenue growth in 2021, going all the way up from the previous month (corresponding to production of 180,000, 206,000, 237,000 and 305,000).
The official figure given in 2022 is more than 50% growth, if distributed according to production, Q1 begins, Texas and Berlin gradually deliver; in Q2 and Q3 to pull capacity, Tesla is expected to deliver and revenue in 2022 will be the same as in 2021 - is a gradual upward trend. In other words, after Tesla's revenue has been relatively flat in 2018-2020, there may be a wave of sharp increases in the three years of 2021-2023.
Figure 2 Tesla's revenue from 2018 to 2021
I personally have some questions about the charging facilities. From the data point of view, Tesla will build 912 stations in 2021, adding 8221 charging piles, and currently building 3476 stations, a total of 31498 charging piles. This 35% growth rate and the 930,000 (70% growth rate) of global new growth do not match. And 2021 is also a time point when Tesla will open the charging facilities, from the current point of view, the effective area of global fast charging (there is enough distribution load, users are willing to use high frequency) may be limited, especially in China's first-tier cities.
Figure 3 Tesla's 2021 supercharging stations (piles) in the world
Part 2: Energy Storage and Batteries
In Tesla's small business, there is the rapid growth of energy storage, around the Power Pack and Mega Pack, Tesla gave guidance is 200-300% growth. This piece was switched from the previous 18650 battery to the lithium iron phosphate battery (this conference call is also clear that the 4680 battery will not be used to do it), and there is a great guarantee at the supplier level.
Figure 4 4GWh demand in 2021, with the highest forecast to 12GWh by 2022
At present, 4680 should be a basic platform that will continue to improve lean production costs and efficiency to achieve the planned battery cell cost target, and in terms of chemical systems, this is the first time that lithium iron phosphate will not be used.
Combined with previous Nikkei Asia reports, Panasonic has approved an investment of 80 billion yen ($705 million) in Japan's Wakayama plant to produce 4680 batteries for Tesla, a 10GWh 2023 production capacity that is clearly part of that.
Note: From the current point of view, Panasonic will be supplied in Japan and the United States, otherwise Panasonic's proportion under the Tesla system will further decline.
So let's comb through the supply of 4680 batteries -
Berlin: The first LG2170 batteries, switched to Tesla's Berlin factory to produce its own 4680, while LG's 4680 was used as a combination;
Texas: The first batch of 4680 Tesla's self-produced batteries, adding panasonic Japan and the United States to invest in the 4680 production capacity, follow-up will also consider LG's increased production capacity in the United States.
brief summary:
From the current point of view, the supply restrictions of automotive chips to automotive companies in 2022 will still be greater than the capacity limit of batteries. In 2022, whether it is Tesla or China's new energy vehicles, from Q1 to Q4, there will be a trend of low before and high.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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