There are reports that Xiaopeng Motors plans to reduce the supply share of the NINGD era and turn to the new battery supplier Zhongxin Airlines. Subsequently, LG, which has been in direct opposition to the Cataline era, plans to go public in South Korea. At the same time, the news of the continuous decline in new energy subsidies has also triggered a panic, and the situation of the entire new energy vehicle track is not so peaceful.
Innovationcases observed that as a "wind vane" in the field of new energy power batteries, the fate of the Ningde era seems to have been foreshadowed by various omens, everything has traces to follow, and it is destined that in the next 2022, the power battery field will be turbulent.
The new atmosphere of the automotive power battery market
At present, the power battery market is divided by Ningde Times, BYD, and LG Chemical, which account for two-thirds of the market share, and the rest are divided by the second echelon.
The entire industry is dominated by lithium batteries, which have two kinds of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate. Ningde era two kinds of lithium batteries have bets, its earliest to do ternary lithium batteries, and then into the lithium iron phosphate battery track, two legs in parallel walking, and later also released a sodium battery plan.
In contrast, BYD mainly does lithium iron phosphate, panasonic and LG energy are ternary lithium batteries. Panasonic is an NCA ternary lithium battery, and LG Energy is mainly an NCM ternary lithium battery.
Although there are only a few domestic battery manufacturers, and there are not many well-known battery manufacturers in the industry, between 2013 and 2016, power battery companies once mushroomed. In addition to the BYD and Ningde era, China New Aviation, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Fu Energy Technology, Hive Energy, etc., a large number of battery manufacturers are not so eye-catching.
After 2016, due to changes in subsidy policies, some small and medium-sized battery companies lost in the torrent. This is a historic period in the decisive battle of the power battery market. From 155 domestic related enterprises in 2016, only 105 remained in 2018.
At the same time, the head enterprises have been smooth sailing. In 2018, the loading volume of the top 20 power battery companies in China accounted for more than 92%, and the top 5 companies accounted for 73%.
There are many examples of the transition from prosperity to decline. Founded in 2002 after Ningde Times and BYD, Watma is one of the earliest companies in China to successfully develop lithium iron phosphate power batteries and apply them in batches. In 2015, Watmar ranked second in the domestic new energy vehicle battery support ranking, and in 2017, the ranking fell to third. After that, the survival crisis of Watma was gradually exposed, and the operating rate was only about 20%, and then it was ruthlessly abandoned by the environment.
In a way, Walmart's experience can represent the dilemma faced by the second echelon of the giants. If the industry is not reversed, the follow-up outcome is self-evident, but fortunately, the situation that has been entrenched for a long time finally has a crack.
Due to the insufficient production capacity of head battery manufacturers, it is being accelerated by second-tier companies. The first to shake was the NINGDE era, which reduced its market share from 53% to 43% in the first half of 2021. Correspondingly, the share of second-tier battery manufacturers has increased, and the market share of AVIC lithium battery and Guoxuan Hi-Tech has reached 12%. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Honeycomb Energy and other battery companies announced battery expansion projects nearly 30 times, with a cumulative investment of more than 300 billion yuan.
There are many reasons behind it, one of the keys is that in 2021, the price of power battery raw materials will not stop, which directly leads to the rising cost of the battery business. Due to the rise in raw materials, the NINGDE era, which uses batteries as its main business, is facing the risk of profit decline. In the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin of power batteries in the Ningde era was 23%, down 3.5% year-on-year and 3.56% month-on-month.
On the other hand, among several materials enterprises, the gross profit growth of enterprises dominated by nickel, cobalt and lithium minerals is the most obvious, and even the average gross profit of top-notch enterprises has increased by more than 10 percentage points compared with 2020; among electrolyte-based enterprises, the gross profit growth of polyfluoride and Tianji shares is also quite obvious.
Luo Rentong, a senior researcher at the Guangdong Innovation Strategy Research Association, believes that this market trend indirectly gives second-tier battery manufacturers the opportunity to fight back. The battery business is difficult to grab food from the hands of giants, and many companies choose to save the country from the raw material business curve. That is to say, in the next 2-3 years, there will be a new pattern in the battery energy storage industry.
Did the Ningde era peak?
In the past decade, CATL has bet on power batteries, laying out all technologies and Pack design solutions, including power batteries. In addition, it also cooperates with material manufacturers and host manufacturers to operate a vertically integrated industrial chain.
In some senses, the Ningde era has long been a giant ship in the power battery industry.
According to the data, by the first half of 2021, CATL ranked first in the world's installed power battery capacity for four consecutive years, an increase of 234.2% year-on-year, and a market share of 29.9%. LG, Panasonic and BYD ranked second to fourth respectively.
The three main business blocks of the Ningde era are power battery system, lithium battery materials, and energy storage systems, of which the power battery system accounts for more than 70% of its revenue, which has also become the "core" of the Ningde era.
The upward trend of the Ningde era and the new energy benefits of domestic policies are synchronized. Electrification and intelligence drive the transformation of the traditional automotive industry, in the past, the engine and powertrain accounted for 15-20% of the cost of fuel vehicles, and now new energy vehicles, batteries account for 40-50% of the total cost of vehicles. Therefore, the power battery has become a constraint for new energy automobile enterprises, occupying a high position in the discourse power of the new energy automobile industry chain.
This is also reflected in the favor of capital for the Ningde era. According to the data, since its establishment in 2011, CATL has raised 12 times of financing, strategic financing and private placement, and Hillhouse Capital, Honda, E Fangda Asset Management, etc. are its investors.
However, whether the single power battery system of the Ningde era can continue to support the continued wild running of the Ningde era is still questioned by the market.
The market believes that ternary lithium batteries are gradually approaching the critical value in terms of energy density of technology. Therefore, can other fields, such as the newly released sodium battery and energy storage system, become a new track in the Ningde era, with the potential of the main force of revenue? This is actually still unknown.
Moreover, the host manufacturers are also proposing a newer power battery business model, such as the Battery Rental Service (BaaS) of Weilai, that is, vehicle-to-electricity separation, battery rental, rechargeable and replaceable battery services.
If the technical factor is that the Ningde era is an internal worry, then the pressure of domestic and foreign competitors on the Ningde era has formed an embattled external problem.
Who will stand out?
In the face of the next round of industry trends, grasping the technology window may be more important than anything else. In recent years, most of the reasons why domestic battery giants have been able to continue to dominate the new energy track are because of production capacity.
Industry experts believe that there are some gaps between the Ningde era and LG Energy and Panasonic. That is to say, once the global power battery production capacity reaches a certain scale, the Ningde era is likely to lose the greatest advantage.
From the perspective of R&D investment ratio, the whole industrial chain of CATL invested 11.9 billion yuan, of which 9.6 billion yuan was equity investment, of which 9.6 billion yuan, 2.4 billion yuan was used to strengthen the supply of raw materials, 3 billion yuan was used to ensure the supply of equipment, 2.6 billion yuan was used to strengthen downstream customer cooperation, and the rest was innovation investment, up to 1.6 billion yuan. It is not difficult to predict that technological upgrading is likely to bring a new round of industry reshuffle.
At present, the market is more optimistic about energy storage products for solid-state lithium batteries.
According to the forecast of relevant agencies, the global solid-state battery market space is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan in 2030. This is undoubtedly a turning point in the battery industry, who will stand out in the next generation of technology? The current situation is a bit difficult to judge.
It is reported that at least 50 companies around the world are currently developing solid-state batteries, and 38 institutions in Japan are jointly developing solid-state lithium batteries. In this field, NINGD times, BYD, LG Chem is somewhat silent, because the right to speak is temporarily in the hands of Toyota. At the same time, the patent rankings of many Japanese companies such as Panasonic and Murata also entered the top ten.
At a time when the global battery industry is in turmoil, the reaction of capital is the most telling. Take Quantum Scape, for example, the company once created a market value of more than 100 billion yuan by relying on zero sales performance, and landed on the New York Stock Exchange in November 2020, with the highest market value once exceeding 300 billion.
When the sales of new energy vehicles tend to be flat, it will promote the new energy vehicle cycle to reach its peak, and the severe situation behind the battery industry will also appear a new situation.