Rationally look at the rise in the price of lithium carbonate

Recently, the price of lithium carbonate, the cathode raw material of power batteries, has continued to rise, which has attracted industry attention. What is the situation in Qinghai, which is the main producer of lithium resources in the mainland? The reporter interviewed relevant departments and people.

From the perspective of demand, the rapid development of the new energy industry under the "double carbon" goal has greatly increased the demand for lithium raw materials. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 were 3.521 million units, and the market penetration rate reached 13.4%, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. The installed capacity of power batteries has expanded with the popularity of new energy vehicles, and it has become the largest market in the lithium battery industry after the lithium battery of mobile phones.

The growth of the demand side allows price fluctuations to be rapidly transmitted to upstream raw materials, resulting in the price of lithium carbonate rising all the way. According to the data, from 2011 to 2015, China's lithium battery industry maintained an annual growth rate of more than 20%. Since 2016, the demand for lithium products for new energy vehicles has expanded, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen to more than 100,000 yuan per ton. Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium carbonate has been soaring, and the current price of lithium carbonate has exceeded 300,000 yuan a ton.

From the supply side, the existing lithium production is difficult to meet the market demand, and the production capacity will not be greatly improved in a short period of time. The reporter learned from the Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology that at present, there are 13 lithium mining enterprises in Qinghai Qarhan Salt Lake, with a built production capacity of 110,000 tons, of which some enterprises have not fully reached production due to equipment maintenance and production lines are being built and debugged.

In addition, the characteristics of lithium resource mining determine that it is difficult to increase production in a short period of time. On the one hand, the main raw material for the production of lithium carbonate is salt lake brine, large-scale production of lithium carbonate enterprises must have lithium resources reserves are relatively rich salt lake resource exploitation rights, the industry has a high barrier; on the other hand, because the vast majority of resources in salt lakes are high magnesium and low lithium type, and the process technology difficulty of purification and separation of lithium carbonate is also larger.

Zhang Xiying, a researcher at the Qinghai Institute of Salt Lake Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the development of the lithium battery industry is highly dependent on resources and technical support. With the continuous scientific and technological research of salt lake enterprises and salt lake research institutions, the related technology of lithium extraction in salt lake is gradually breaking through. The continuous breakthrough of these technologies has laid the foundation for the large-scale production of high-magnesium-lithium-to-salt lake resources in Qinghai and the production of high-quality lithium salt products. In the work report of the Qinghai Provincial Government, it is proposed that the scale of the lithium industry will be expanded, the production capacity of lithium carbonate will be released, and the level of the lithium battery industry will be improved. This will undoubtedly also increase the supply capacity of lithium carbonate and stabilize the prices of related products that are rising too quickly.

Industry insiders said that the current price of lithium carbonate has exceeded the actual value, and the sharp rise does not have a sustainable basis, and this round of price increases should be rationally viewed. Behind the "madness" is the future development of the industry. (Economic Daily reporter Ma Yuhong, Shi Jing)