A number of lithium battery companies surged in the first two months lithium salt companies were interviewed lithium prices or tend to "calm"

Reporters Li Chunlian and Li Qiaoyu

As of March 20, more than 10 lithium battery concept listed companies disclosed the operation of the first two months of this year, and "volume and price rise" became commonality.

Since the beginning of this year, lithium battery products have been in short supply, prices have been rising, related companies have benefited from this, and the performance of the first two months of this year has increased significantly year-on-year. While the performance of lithium battery manufacturers has increased significantly, the production cost of lithium battery industry chain is also increasing.

To this end, the Department of Raw Material Industry and the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Price Department of the Development and Reform Commission, the Price Supervision and Inspection bureau of the State Administration of Market Supervision and the Bureau of Anti-Unfair Competition, recently held a symposium, requiring upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain to strengthen the docking of supply and demand, cooperate to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperation relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices, increase efforts to ensure market supply, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles in the mainland.

A number of industry insiders said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the price of lithium carbonate has become calm after 2 months of soaring. With the increase in supply, the price may fall in the second quarter, and the rising market may usher in an inflection point.

Lithium battery concept stocks performed well in the first two months

According to the announcement disclosed by Yongxing Materials, from January to February 2022, the company achieved operating income of about 1.58 billion yuan, an increase of about 96% year-on-year; and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 490 million yuan, an increase of about 650% year-on-year.

"The company's performance has increased significantly, mainly due to the continuous rapid development of the lithium battery new energy industry, which has led to the continuous rise in the price of lithium carbonate." Yongxing Materials said that in the first two months of this year, the company's lithium battery new energy business achieved operating income of about 620 million yuan, an increase of about 670% year-on-year; achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 420 million yuan, an increase of about 3700% year-on-year.

The operating data of the first 2 months of the "lithium industry double male" also lived up to expectations. Ganfeng Lithium Disclosed Announcement shows that from January to February this year, the company achieved operating income of about 3.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 260% year-on-year; achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 300% year-on-year; and achieved a non-net profit of about 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 1,000% year-on-year. The company said that there are three main reasons for the substantial increase in performance. First, with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industry, the demand for lithium products from downstream customers has grown strongly, and the production and sales of the company's lithium products have increased in 2021, and the average price of product sales has increased significantly year-on-year; second, the company's new projects in the lithium battery sector have been put into production, and the production capacity has been gradually released; third, the fair value change income of financial assets such as Pilbara held by the company has increased.

According to the data disclosed by Tianqi Lithium, since entering 2022, due to the significant growth in demand and sales of downstream new energy vehicles, the price of the company's main lithium salt products has increased rapidly, and the supply of products has exceeded demand. From January to February this year, the company's lithium concentrate production increased by about 39% year-on-year, sales increased by about 56% year-on-year, lithium concentrate operating income is expected to increase by about 366% year-on-year, and lithium compounds and derivatives operating income is expected to increase by about 492% year-on-year.

On March 18, China Mining Resources issued an announcement that due to the release of new production capacity, the price of lithium salt products rose, and the company's profitability increased significantly year-on-year. According to the company's preliminary accounting, from January to February this year, the company achieved a net profit of about 486 million yuan, an increase of about 1170.12% year-on-year.

Judging from the profitability of the first two months, the sharp rise in the performance of lithium battery concept stocks in the first quarter of this year has become a foregone conclusion. The continuous data of lithium salt profits tracked by Baichuan Yingfu through the cost profit model shows that the profits of the lithium salt industry in the first quarter of this year continue to show an expanding trend compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.

Lithium carbonate prices doubled during the year

Lithium salt prices soared, pushing up the cost pressure of the new energy automobile industry. Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium salt products has been rising. In particular, the price of lithium carbonate has risen from 250,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 500,000 yuan / ton.

On March 19, Ideal Auto CEO Li Xiang said on his Weibo that at present, brands that have signed contracts with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase in the second quarter have basically announced price increases immediately. "If there is no price increase, most of it is that the price increase has not been negotiated, and the price will increase immediately after the negotiation." The increase in battery costs in the second quarter of this year will be very outrageous. ”

However, since entering March, the momentum of lithium carbonate prices continue to rise is slowing. Business agency data show that on March 18, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 475,400 yuan / ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 499,600 yuan / ton. At present, the acceptance of high-priced lithium carbonate products in the downstream market is not high, and in the state of relatively sufficient inventory, the downstream market basically maintains a wait-and-see state, and the attitude of high-priced procurement tends to be cautious.

Recently, the relevant departments have interviewed some lithium salt enterprises, mainly to promote the reasonable and stable operation of prices, especially emphasizing that upstream enterprises should jointly promote the benign development of the industrial chain.

Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said not long ago that this year will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries and other production, moderately accelerate the development progress of domestic lithium, nickel and other resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging.

Qu Yinfei, an analyst of lithium carbonate in the new energy division of Shanghai Steel Union, told the Securities Daily reporter that in terms of cost, the prices of spodumene and lithium mica have risen. On the supply side, the pre-maintenance enterprises have resumed production, the supply has increased, and the supply in March is expected to increase by 14.21% month-on-month compared with February. On the demand side, downstream enterprises produce more as planned, and the willingness to get goods at high prices is reduced. Affected by the emotional side, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the second quarter is expected to stabilize, and even decline.

Lithium salt prices rise or meet the inflection point

"Promoting the reasonable operation of lithium salts needs to be achieved by increasing the supply." Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, told the Securities Daily reporter, "There are successful precedents in Jiangxi, Qinghai and other places by increasing supply and regulating prices. ”

In Zhang Xiang's view, the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate is mainly due to the shortage of supply caused by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market. In addition, the epidemic has also had a greater impact on the production and transportation of lithium carbonate, further pushing up the price of lithium carbonate. However, there are many sources of lithium carbonate, and there are also rich lithium ore resources in China. As enterprises increase supply, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will gradually stabilize. "At least not this year there will be no more gains".

From the supply side, there is news of the continuous release of the production capacity of listed companies in the market. On March 18, Guoxuan Hi-Tech said on the investor interaction platform that the company's lithium carbonate project was mass-produced in the first quarter of this year, and the production capacity has been gradually released, and the production capacity is expected to be about 10,000 tons this year. Yongxing Materials also revealed that the first production line of the company's second phase of the 20,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project has entered the equipment commissioning stage, which can achieve the goal of putting into operation 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate production capacity at the end of the first quarter.

Zhu Yuanzhi, a professor at the School of Mechanical and Materials Engineering of North China University of Technology, believes that the price of lithium carbonate has gradually stabilized due to factors such as government regulation and increased supply recently. However, in the long run, lithium ore is a non-renewable resource, and the price of lithium carbonate will still be subject to supply and demand. Therefore, while adjusting the market price by increasing the supply, it is also necessary to find new alternative battery material sources and recycle existing materials.