Text/Zihan Ed./Qingzhu
The U.S. stock market is miserable, and Tesla can't move?
On January 26, Eastern time, a financial report that exceeded expectations, coupled with Musk's return to the performance meeting, only drove Tesla's stock price up 2.7%. Since the beginning of 2022, Tesla has fallen into a trillion-dollar market value, a cumulative decline of 12.3%.
Probably because there are no new Model models for $25,000, there are no new developments in Cybertruck and Roadster, and Musk has not seriously introduced the product roadmap.
The only thing that is certain is that Tesla plans to achieve full self-driving in 2022, and deliver the first batch of battery cars equipped with 4680 in Q1 2022.
Throughout the meeting, Musk was most concerned about fully autonomous driving and Optimus robots, investors were concerned about profit margins and when FSD would make big money, and fans were concerned about Tesla's poetry and distance.
Capture the signal of Tesla's development from just a few words. Behind the ultra-high-speed growth is Tesla's answer to trade-offs under the supply chain crisis. It also explains why there are no new cars in the 2022 plan, only expansion and cost reduction and efficiency increase. As the godfather of new cars, does Tesla still deserve to be a leader?
Earn a billion more
Yes, Tesla handed over another "boring" earnings report.
In 2021, 940,000 vehicles were delivered, an increase of 87% year-on-year, fully driving the increase in revenue. In Q4 2021, Tesla's revenue was $17.72 billion, $1 billion higher than analysts expected and up 65% year-over-year. Among them, the revenue of the automotive business was $15.97 billion, an increase of 71%.
Tesla's Q4 gross margin was 27.4%, further improving from 26.6% in Q3, mainly due to further reductions in manufacturing costs. In Q4 2021, Tesla's COG cost was reduced to $36,000, and there is a possibility of further decline.
This also leaves more room for expansion and R&D investment.
The prettier figure is net profit, and even though the construction of the new plant cost $6.5 billion, Tesla still generated a $5.5 billion GAAP net profit. The final net profit attributable to shareholders was $2.343 billion, up 760% year-over-year. Truth be told, in the year of the pandemic, shareholders can't ask for more.
Bai Yiyang, head of the international research department of CMB, said that Tesla's overall performance trend is good, 4Q revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and gross profit margin was basically flat month-on-month. This is mainly affected by raw materials and freight costs, otherwise it will be higher. He pointed out that the chip problem will not be greatly alleviated until at least the second half of the year. The 4680 will be loaded quickly, and the upstream industrial chain of A-shares will gradually enter the performance confirmation period. Over the past year, Tesla's costs for product recalls and repairs have risen.
But in the future, Tesla still has hidden worries about declining growth rates.
Some analysts pointed out that 30% is already a high level of gross profit margin in the manufacturing industry, and future growth should still be stable. "The degree of exceeding expectations is not large, Tesla will undoubtedly have a certain increase, but the motivation to continue to increase profits significantly is insufficient."
Supply chain conundrums are also plaguing Tesla.
Officials said, "The supply chain is the main factor limiting, and tesla factories have been undercapacitated for several consecutive quarters, and this situation may continue into 2022." "There's a little bit of Versailles.
Tesla in 2021 has reduced the number of inventory turnover days to 6 days, which is still a year when the capacity is capped.
In Q4 2021, Tesla's annualized production capacity has exceeded 1.22 million vehicles. At present, the Annual Production Capacity of the Shanghai Plant can reach 850,000 units, and the 600,000-unit capacity of the Florida Plant has entered the production state, completing the target of 1.4 million units.
Imbalances in the product mix continue to exist. The data shows that in 2021, the model S and Model Y positioned as luxury are down 19% from the same period, which is better than nothing, while the production of the lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y increased by 79% year-on-year.
Adjusting the production ratio of the four models is very important, and at the performance meeting, Tesla's financial executives also said that the model Y's proportion in sales can be higher than the Model 3. In the future, we will focus on increasing sales of the new Model S and Model X, and use the unit price of customers to increase profit margins.
"Shanghai is still our main export center", but Tesla also knows that Shanghai's exports to the world alone are not a long-term solution. After all, transportation will increase the cost of delivery in the European and American markets, and when the Texas and Berlin factories are on the right track, it will reduce costs.
Regarding the factory situation, Tesla executives also disclosed at the performance meeting. At present, the Texas Gigafactory has begun to produce the Model Y. In the case of Berlin, Germany, there is still a license, but a new trial production approval has been obtained, which can produce 2,000 Model Y. In addition, Musk said that the new plant is being selected and will announce the construction site in 2022.
In addition to the factory, the large-scale construction of electric vehicle infrastructure is also the main theme of Tesla in 2021, Tesla built a total of 3476 supercharging stations throughout the year, a total of 31498 charging piles, an increase of 36% over last year. Considering issues such as supply chain, this is a considerable amount.
Due to the FSD Beta price increase, the growth of this business was not as good as expected. Tesla revealed that FSD Beta has expanded to about 60,000 users in the United States.
At the same time, the decline of cryptocurrencies may also have an impact on the "coin speculation demon" Musk.
Musk, who just stood for Dogecoin and shouted that McDonald's accepts payment for virtual currency, encountered the crisis of Bitcoin falling below the bid price. In early 2021, Tesla bought $1.5 billion in bitcoins at $35,000 per coin, but the plunge caused the price of these bitcoins to fall to $1.44 billion.
Musk answered again
Why CyberTruck jumped the ticket
Regarding the much-anticipated new model, it did not appear.
At the performance meeting, the returning Musk answered several important questions related to it.
Musk believes that the focus in 2021 is still to increase production. If a new product is introduced, it may lead to a decline in the total production of the car. At the same time, the development of new products will accelerate the development of cyberruck electric pickup trucks, Tesla SEMI trailers, roadster sports cars, but do not consider mass production.
Not only that, the $25,000 Model compact model, Musk admits, has not yet advanced development. Because there are too many things at hand now, it is a "mistake" to promote the development of cheap models. "What's really important is to achieve autonomous driving, which can reduce transportation costs by a factor of 4-5."
After asking about the new car, it was followed by a question that Musk would be silent after listening. Why did CyberTruck skip tickets? What limits its production?
After tens of seconds of air silence, he said: "The 4680 battery will not become a limit for CyberTruck, but the cost will. There are a lot of new technologies in CyberTruck that will take some time to mass-produce. In addition, the price of CyberTruck must also be reasonable, so the cost of the battery also needs to be controlled. The goal is to mass-produce in 2023, capable of manufacturing 250,000 CyberTrucks per year.
Musk, who couldn't answer, tweeted the day before that he had "been testing Cyberruck at giga, Texas, which is great."
But musk avoids the point that Cybertruck has received orders for 1.2 million units worth more than $80 billion. With the mass production of electric pickups far away, Ford's F-150 next door is expected to launch in the spring, GM's first electric pickup, silverado, is expected to be released in 2023, and Rivian, the "Tesla killer" next door, is also eyeing the tiger. Under siege by friends, I can't help but worry about cyberTruck's future.
Regarding the FSD price cut, Musk also did not give a positive answer.
He said FSD will have a wide range of OTAs, and Tesla will keep the price within a reasonable range, but does not consider opening up the FSD buyout.
"It sounds too complicated, and we're more focused on how to drive every mile at low cost."
He also did not respond to the problem of the price increase reducing FSD revenue, saying only that "in the long run, every car will have FSD, and its value will be a very large number". And stressed, "Nothing compares to the value of FSD and Robotaxi,"
In the future, Tesla's software business should be the main focus, because the profit margin of the software business is very high. FSD and Robotaxi will also drive growth.
Robotics is Musk's long-term optimistic business
Musk noted that "over time, Optimus is likely to become more important than the automotive business." The humanoid robot Optimus could help solve the labor shortage, and it will first be applied to Tesla factories.
Regarding the "fastest supercomputer" Dojo, Musk mentioned that he will start to use Dojo this summer, but it mainly depends on the use of the Teslaots team. Because FSD does not need Dojo for the time being, what is most needed at present is the accumulation of autonomous driving miles. But Dojo provides the ability to optimize neural networks, which can reduce costs, and will also consider opening up Dojo's ability to other companies in the future.
About insurance business. Tesla insurance is available in five states across the country, and the internal goal is that by the end of this year, 80% of Tesla customers will choose insurance.
About the energy storage business. In 2021, energy storage is limited by prioritizing the development of automobiles, but the biggest problem in the energy business is also because of the shortage of chips rather than batteries, and the long-term goal is to achieve a trillion watt-hours/year energy business. The energy sector is sure to see growth this year. If delivered for demand, Tesla's energy division will grow two to three times.
Tesla, obsessed with making money, is certainly not sexy, and after the sharp rise in profits, the problem of performance will be more tolerant than in previous years. But compared with a serious earnings conference, Musk still prefers the stem chart and paragraph. After all, he has already said that he is considering quitting all his jobs and becoming an Internet celebrity with all his heart" before.
Trillions are glory, trillions are equally burdens. When capital's spotlight is focused on Tesla, it forces it to become a more pragmatic company.
Perhaps in Musk's eyes, it is a good choice to give money to Tesla and the sea of stars to Space X.
What does Wall Street think, you ask? Moody's, Damo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all upgraded Tesla's ratings this month, of course, or "brainless overweight".
But in the larger category, Tesla, obsessed with making money, is certainly not sexy. Humanity needs poetry and faraway places.