Image source @ Visual China
Wen 丨 Financial Qi Guan
Recently, the news of the departure of Su Zhen, the former director of Huawei's intelligent driving product department, was officially confirmed.
Some people say that he is very similar to Yu Chengdong of that year, who made his debut at the auto show in April, and came up to "Huawei's automatic driving is absolutely first" and won the hot search.
However, unlike Yu Chengdong's fate, in July, the technical expert who dared to speak out was signed by Ren Zhengfei for "making inappropriate remarks" and went to the internal "reserve team" to stand by.
Although, "public impact is really bad".
But as far as I know, in private, there are actually many industry practitioners who express "dark coolness" about those words.
"Tesla in recent years, the accident rate is still quite high ... L5 level intelligent driving system is impossible to do for a long time, the introduction of high-level intelligent driving system, will increase the probability of traffic accidents, the ugly point is to kill. ”
"In the next hundred years, machines will not have more intelligence than humans, and fully autonomous driving will be difficult to achieve in this lifetime."
"All companies that target Robotaxi as their business are doomed."
......
And so on, which is roughly the way of technological presentism (bei) realism ( guan ) .
From my personal observations, it seems that there is a similar phenomenon in all walks of life: the layman (capital, media) is excited, and the practitioner is pessimistic.
When they start working, practitioners feel that there are pits everywhere and it is difficult to step by step. Hearing the outside singing about the coming future, he shook his head vigorously: "Layman, blind coaxing."
From supercomputing in previous years, to automatic driving in the near distance, to biotechnology and nuclear fusion in the distance, this phenomenon is more or less like this phenomenon.
Far from it, the recent controversies about the power exchange model are actually largely due to the collision between "technical realism" and "strategic idealism".
One technical vision after another is like a measuring scale, easily dividing two very different views of life. It is torturing you:
Whenever making a decision, the most important thing is "Where can I go?" ”
Or "Where am I going?" ”
Musk's choice is undoubtedly the latter.
For his great insistence, people named it "First Principles".
01, the financial report is eye-catching
Just the day after Su Zhen confirmed his departure, in the early morning of January 27, Beijing time, Tesla released the fourth quarter of 2021 financial report.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 308,700 vehicles, up 70.8% year-on-year and 27.9% sequentially, exceeding all analysts' expectations. Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives even called the performance too good to be "jaw-dropping."
For the whole year, Tesla delivered more than 936,000 vehicles, an increase of about 87% year-on-year, and the 1 million mark is about to break through.
In contrast, the three new domestic forces "Wei Xiaoli" are still attacking towards the "100,000 vehicles" milestone.
Revenue and profit also hit new highs.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Tesla's total revenue was $17.719 billion, an increase of 65% year-on-year. Net income attributable to common shareholders was $2,321 million, up 760% year-over-year. Gross profit margin of vehicle sales up to 30.6%;
In 2021, Tesla's total revenue was $53.823 billion, up 71% year-on-year. Net income attributable to common shareholders was $5,519 million, up 665% year-over-year. The overall gross profit margin reached 25.3%, the highest in history.
In previous related articles, we have repeatedly emphasized that "new energy" and "automatic driving" are two highly related but relatively independent tracks.
At present, the industry is in full swing, mainly from the manufacture and sales of new energy electric vehicles.
Behind it is the concept of carbon neutrality, taking the environmental protection track, the core is the global consensus, policy escort.
And just starting out, in the ascendant, giving capital unlimited imagination space is unmanned.
Behind is the concept of artificial intelligence, taking the science and technology track, the core is the sustainable development of productivity, the replacement of machines for labor.
The former represents such as BYD and Ideal Car, and the latter represents such as Baidu Car.
Tesla is taking a path of both, but from its financial report, it is not difficult to see that vehicle sales are its undoubted pillar business, and the Q4 financial report shows that the vehicle sales revenue is 15.34 billion US dollars, accounting for 86.6% of the total revenue.
The FSD suite business, which represents "unmanned driving", is still in its infancy in business.
According to a survey of 17,000 Tesla owners worldwide, Tesla's Fully Autonomous Driving Feature (FSD) suite, which costs $199/month, is currently only about 11% popular among Tesla owners worldwide.
In this conference call, Musk once again clearly showed a "favoritism" attitude.
Regarding the vehicle sales business, Musk said:
"A $25,000 model? There is no time. ”
"Cyber pickup? It will take time. ”
"New models? Please, people don't fully realize how important fully autonomous driving is. ”
But regarding the self-driving business, Musk and his executive team said:
"I'd be shocked if I don't reach the level of autonomous driving this year that's safer than human driving."
"The software business is something that everyone needs to pay attention to, which will lead to a significant increase in profit margins."
"A car can go from driving 12 hours a week to 60 hours a week, fivefold. If the utilization of assets is fivefolded, the cost will be significantly reduced. It's pretty amazing. ”
"Everything else will suddenly fade in front of Robotax and autonomous driving."
02, extremely uncertain
Despite the bright performance of the earnings report, tesla's stock price plunged 6% after the market after the release of the earnings report.
The next day, Tesla plunged 11% on a barefoot line. Coupled with the impact of the recent Release of the Fed on the overall environment, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 21% this year, and the technical graph has deteriorated significantly.
At present, the more common explanation in the market is "supply chain problem".
With a dynamic P/E of up to 150 times, the pressure on companies in terms of performance growth is enormous.
In the latest performance outlook, Tesla stressed to the outside world that "the actual output of the gigafactory has been lower than the production capacity for several consecutive quarters, and the supply chain bottleneck is expected to continue until 2022." ”
Writing this, a logical inference is almost about to come out:
"Because Tesla's vehicle sales capacity is under pressure, Musk continues to draw the future."
But such a direct causal relationship is not rigorous, and it also highly simplifies the problem and distorts it.
In September 2014, Zhang Yiming, Fu Sheng, Li Wanqiang, Zhou Hang and others visited Musk at Tesla's headquarters.
Zhou Hang asked: "You have done so many crazy things, don't you worry about failure?" ”
Musk replied: "On the contrary, the probability of failure of these things is far greater than the probability of success." I did it not because it would work, but simply because I wanted to do it, which was my vision for the future of the world. ”
Due to the excessive legend and strong personality traits, Musk has gradually formed two extreme facial images in the media and public discussions.
One is the technology maniac, the entrepreneurial hero, determined to go to the sea of stars.
In one commercial victory after another, even a charisma like a religious leader was formed.
There is also a kind of charlatan who shoots cannons everywhere, knows the art of marketing, makes amazing remarks, and manipulates the media.
Common cases include, but are not limited to, "new products continue to jump tickets", "blowing high-nickel ternary batteries, and finally quietly exchanging lithium iron phosphate. ”
"When holding bitcoin, it was blown away for its platform, and after selling bitcoin, it turned its face and repented, saying that people consume too much electricity and Tesla no longer accepts bitcoin payments." Back and forth, cut the leek mad demon. ”
Believe the former, then you will believe whatever Musk says.
Believe the latter, then musk said that you will not believe anything.
This extreme perception will eventually lead to deviations in investment actions, which in turn will lead to significant losses in assets.
At the beginning of the article, we divided the crowd into two kinds, one rooted in reality, "where I can go, I will go", with a solid foundation, from 1 to 100, and strive to continue to grow within the established rules of the game.
Another strategy is first, "I will work wherever I want to go", high risk and high reward, from 0 to 1, and continue to broaden the boundaries of business and civilization.
But in real life, every entrepreneur is actually a mixture of these two personalities, and in any large-scale enterprise, we can see what the main business is, and what is the new business unit that carries the second growth curve.
The only difference is that the proportions, or tendencies, are different.
For example, some companies spend 90% of their resources on the maintenance of existing businesses, 10% of their resources invest in the future, and some companies open up to five or five.
But Tesla is likely to be two or eight, the future is eight, and the existing business is eight. And with the further maturity and stabilization of the existing business, the investment of resources and energy will even be further reduced.
That said, for Musk, his proportions are very extreme. It seems that as long as the entire business system can be kept running normally, then he will devote all his remaining resources to future breakthrough research and development.
Looking at Tesla's business, we must distinguish which is the "source of cash flow" and which is the "claim to the world".
There is a huge difference in the credibility of the two statements.
The most typical are the Cyber pickup and the $25,000 model, and the attitude of the conference call has clearly revealed that the weight ranking of the two within the company has dropped to a very low position.
This is obviously different from the previous huge press conference, and it is easy to make people feel "irresponsible to speak", "deceived" and so on.
But for Tesla, accelerating the arrival of the world of electrified automation is the highest goal, and new models are only means, not ends (first nature).
New models can do this on new models, and when the progress of autonomous driving is faster, then fully promote autonomous driving.
Going back to our initial deduction, Musk is talking about the future and continuing to draw the pie.
But it is not difficult for anyone with a little business sense to think that if it is really to please the capital market, Tesla has a better path choice than drawing a big pie.
The most direct thing is to go all out and continue to promote the further expansion of the vehicle sales business.
Including but not limited to new model research and development, price increases, dead supply chain, marketing investment, etc.
However, regarding these questions, Musk did not even want to mention them in his answer.
In July, Musk publicly stated that he would no longer be on the conference call unless there was something very important to say.
The Q3 earnings call in October did indeed say that Musk was absent for the first time, becoming one of the few top executives in the United States who did not attend the ceremony.
After three months, Musk appeared again to communicate with the outside world, and his attitude is worth observing and playing.
Musk's attitude toward humanoid robots and autonomous driving is to talk a lot, and he must be bold in bringing the topic back to these two businesses when reporters ask other questions.
Regarding the Dojo (Tesla neural network supercomputer project) and the 4680 battery and supply chain issues, Musk's attitude is to respond seriously, but he will still end up on autopilot, that is, explain the relationship between such projects and autonomous driving.
As for the new car product line, electric pickup trucks, and the $25,000 compact model, Musk directly answered the question of promoting "autonomous driving" instead.
If the new energy track is a game, then Tesla is undoubtedly "killing" - the financial report data is there.
But the game is far from over, not even half-time.
Musk went straight into the wild area and began to farm, leaving the keyboard with both hands, once again fully researching how to pull all the opponents' net cables.
Supply chain system vendors, batteries, and traditional luxury car companies are gearing up.
On the way to unblocking the network, accidents, rights protection, brake failures, policy dilemmas, ethical issues, obstacles.
The regimental warfare in various places is in full swing, and the fireworks of the commercial war have been ignited in East Asia, North America, and Europe.
Musk's focus is not on this, he looks up at the stars.
Real men don't look back at the explosion.
This is certainly worth the concern of capital markets.
Tesla's ticket has always been a game for high-risk preferences.