Edit | Yu Bin
Produced by | Chaoqi Network "Yu see column"
Recently, Baidu Research Institute released its 2022 technology trend forecast, which is the third consecutive year that it has released its outlook for cutting-edge technology trends. It is understood that the science and technology trend prediction on this year's list covers three levels: AI core technology, interdisciplinary and cross-field research, and the industrial and social value of AI, including ten major areas such as pre-trained big models, AI for Science, AI-based biological computing, privacy computing, quantum soft and hard integration, automatic driving, deep space exploration, and human-machine symbiosis.
In recent years, the development of the artificial intelligence industry is in full swing. As the leading enterprise in the artificial intelligence industry, Baidu's research institute has released industry forecasts for many years, which is obviously conducive to promoting the application of artificial intelligence technology. The prediction also revealed two strong signals: one is that AI continues to deepen vertically at the technical level and strengthen the industry chassis, and the other is that AI empowers the industry to gradually achieve horizontal expansion and extension.
AI technology will usher in a comprehensive upgrade
According to forecast data, AI will usher in new breakthroughs in core technologies in many aspects in 2022. For example, in terms of AI computing capabilities, the AI-based biological computing mentioned in this forecast will still develop at a high speed, and new breakthroughs will be achieved in basic research and collaborative innovation in application scenarios.
In the past two years, under the intrusion of the new crown virus, all mankind has put forward a newer and higher demand for technological innovation in the life and health industry, and it has become more and more urgent. The backlash of market demand has made breakthroughs in AI-assisted gene editing and protein structure prediction. The success of the new crown mRNA vaccine technology has brought about an outbreak of drug design and vaccine research and development based on macromolecular drugs such as RNA and proteins. Based on the application of this technology, international mainstream pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the landing of mRNA technology.
For example, Pfizer has announced four major collaborations in the past two days, introduced a number of advanced technologies to supplement product pipelines, and reached four transactions. Among them, it involves AI pharmaceuticals, in vivo gene editing, etc.
Source: Medicine Cube
It is foreseeable that in the future, AI-based biocomputing will be applied to more basic research and application scenarios. For example, protein-based drug design, synthesis, screening, etc., as well as mRNA technology-based anti-cancer drugs, monoclonal antibodies, immunotherapy, etc. On this basis, the drug research and development cycle and research and development costs will be greatly reduced, and precision medicine and personalized diagnosis and treatment will also become possible.
At the same time, in terms of data privacy that people pay more and more attention to, AI-based privacy computing technology has also attracted much attention, and with the advent of data security market demand, privacy computing technology represented by trusted confidential computing and federal computing has also continued to mature.
It is predicted that these technologies will become a breakthrough in the release of data value and an infrastructure for building trust. It is even foreseeable that privacy computing technology may promote data circulation and computing based on the secret form, making it the basic configuration and default option. Therefore, the wide range of applications of this technology will also be just around the corner.
Empower research and support interdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research
In terms of interdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research, AI can also be gradually empowered in the future, achieving a high degree of integration with different research fields. For example, it is predicted that the emergence of an emerging field of research in AI for Science is expected to bring about a change in the paradigm of scientific research. For example, machine learning helps mathematicians discover two big conjectures that are enabling a major achievement in the field of scientific research.
In addition, the use of machine learning, multi-scale modeling and high-performance computing to solve the real-time simulation problem of ultra-large-scale quantum stochastic circuits also makes the practical application of artificial intelligence in scientific research full of imagination. At the same time, AI has foreseeable potential to process data, design new types of experiments, and create more efficient computational models.
The emerging AI for Science will also exert its energy in interdisciplinary research in promoting the deep integration of the two major scientific research paradigms of data-driven and theoretical deduction. The 2022 science and technology forecast also shows that AI will be further deeply integrated with different fields such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, materials, and engineering, and play a greater role in the progress of basic science.
It is predicted that in terms of the integration of AI and industry, quantum soft and hard integration solutions have also become the mainstream trend, and accelerating the integration and innovation of quantum computing and various industries is a series of practical needs.
It is expected that in 2022, the design, preparation and measurement and control technology of quantum chips will continue to develop, and the number of qubits will achieve scale growth, and seek breakthroughs along the two ideas of reducing noise or adapting to noise. Quantum software and services are developing across platforms, users will get richer quantum back-end choices on cloud-native quantum computing platforms, and quantum platforms carrying quantum software-hardware integration solutions will gradually show their application value.
Because of the impact of the epidemic, the need to maintain "social distancing" has increased, and the development of digital technology has spawned the combination of virtual and real technology to the application of landing. The outbreak of human-machine symbiosis has also gradually integrated the technology of virtual and real technology and intelligent interaction technology into life.
Behind this, it also benefits from the continuous progress of the underlying technology related to AI. For example, AI technologies such as vision, speech, natural language processing, and XR are in cross-modal understanding and generation, continuous learning, and so on. At the same time, these underlying technologies are gradually integrated with hardware, networks, computing, ecosystem platforms, and content, so a cross-cutting technical support system has been formed.
AI+ industrial applications landed, and people's production and life experience was upgraded
Similarly, at the level of industrial and social value, AI is promoting the development of autonomous driving, aerospace, human-computer interaction and other fields. For example, autonomous driving technology has entered a new stage of unmanned landing, and multiple "automotive robots" are constantly emerging, connecting technologies and scenarios.
Forecast data show that in 2022, under the two-way blessing of policies, regulations and technological progress, autonomous driving will gradually increase the level of unmanned, and the form of automobiles will also evolve into a diversified "car robot". Moreover, the diversified "automotive robots" will be further applied in a variety of scenarios such as passenger cars, buses, trunk logistics, warehousing and distribution, special operations in mines and ports, retail, and sanitation, and converted into commercial revenues. It will also bring immeasurable positive impetus to the development of science and technology and society.
In the field of aerospace, deep space exploration makes human exploration of the universe within reach. You know, as the demand for exploration of the moon and planets increases, the demand for the autonomy of probes is also more intense. Moreover, AI technology also plays a vital role in spacecraft fault detection and repair, construction of digital twin simulation laboratories, and deep space big data exploration and analysis.
It is worth mentioning that with the help of AI, the field of construction machinery automation has achieved the actual engineering scenario of 24-hour continuous unmanned excavation operation. Combined with AI algorithms, the relevant autonomous environment perception and motion planning will be further improved in the future, and even have functions such as autonomous obstacle avoidance and decision-making, and flexible and autonomous operation of the robotic arm.
Moreover, with the deep integration and innovation of quantum computing and intelligent manufacturing, artificial intelligence, chemical medicine, financial technology and other fields, a number of practical application solutions with significant quantum advantages will be produced one after another, and the application of AI will be further extended.
At that time, government agencies, scientific research institutes and industries will also work more closely together to build high-quality quantum devices, cultivate quantum science and technology talents, and initially open up the quantum computing industry chain. After the gradual maturity of these technologies, more virtual and real combinations and intelligent interactive products for industry and consumption scenarios will emerge, thereby promoting the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy and enriching people's production and life experience.
Universal benefit, AI social value comprehensive appreciation
As we all know, while the society is developing rapidly, how to achieve sustainable development has also become a topic of common concern for global enterprises. In recent years, with the implementation of the "double carbon" policy at the national level, green and low carbon have also been included in the AI blueprint. In the future of the country to achieve carbon peak, carbon neutrality goals, AI will also be a force that can not be ignored.
It is worth mentioning that with the acceleration of AI technology and the integration and innovation of all walks of life, it has also brought energy consumption and environmental pollution while creating economic value and social value. Therefore, human demand for "green AI" technology will also follow. Because "green AI" advocates a more environmentally friendly development concept, it can reduce the energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by model training and use.
It is understood that in the next few years, the development direction of "green AI" will build a system around energy-efficient architecture design, training and reasoning strategies, and data utilization, and form evaluation standards that take into account performance and energy consumption. Relying on this development concept, chips with higher computing power and lower energy consumption will also increase in demand, and AI-led enterprises will further implement intensification in large computing power and large models, while improving downstream performance and reducing the operating energy consumption and cost of the entire process.
Obviously, green AI will also take policy orientation as the wind vane in the future. A variety of green and low-carbon data centers will also be generated. Correspondingly, improving the energy efficiency ratio of infrastructure through AI technology will also become the basic work.
At the same time, AI is the AI of the whole people, and how to achieve inclusiveness and inclusiveness will also be the mission of mastering core AI technologies. Because of this, the demand for AI intelligent technology from small and medium-sized enterprises and vulnerable groups has also received more attention under this value orientation. Moreover, this kind of inclusiveness is two-way, not only needing to cover industry practitioners, but also needing to target the beneficiaries of AI technology.
From the perspective of the industry, the open source platform of the deep learning framework with the nature of sharing will further allow practitioners to easily complete the development, and the threshold and difficulty of entering the AI industry will be greatly reduced. At the same time, the further improvement of resources such as public data sets, large model bases, and regional intelligent computing centers developed for AI technology will also bring new opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, reform and innovation.
From the perspective of industry talents, the maturity of the AI training system will also be built, and the transformation of traditional industry personnel and the acceptance of AI science education will become possible.
Similarly, from the perspective of AI technology service objects, that is, beneficiaries, the guidance of national macro policies and the gradual promotion of ESG sustainable development concepts have also gradually shifted the focus of enterprises. Enterprises from the past simple pursuit of efficiency, gradually transformed into sustainable development, into the development cycle, to create value for the society. For individual beneficiaries, AI will also enjoy the convenience of intelligent technology and digital technology. Moreover, as AI service providers continue to pay attention to the needs of vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children, inclusive AI services and products will also become the most anticipated social trend in the future.
epilogue
The future has come, Baidu Research Institute's 2022 technology trend forecast, to a large extent, predicted the next year, the development trend of intelligent technology represented by AI, but also let its relevance with all walks of life, jump on the paper. We expect that because of the advent of the AI era, more new applications and new products of AI that serve the social and people's livelihood will move from technology to landing. In this way, the happiness and health of the whole people can be expected in the future.