Text/Lu Shiming
Edit/Gale
The folding of mobile phones has almost become the default scramble for global mobile phone manufacturers - except for Apple.
But does the phone need to be folded? This is a question worth exploring.
From the perspective of the actual situation of the market, compared with the direct screen mobile phone, the folding screen mobile phone is extremely low in theory, form, price, and after-sales service. But this does not prevent folding screen mobile phones from becoming a blockbuster product at the conference of major mobile phone manufacturers.
Existence is reasonable. The current market does not need, does not mean that it does not have long-term value, just like before Edison invented the tungsten filament electric lamp, the electric lamp that often burned the filament must not be as good as the kerosene lamp that can always be lit, but this is the "giant's shoulder" of Edison's modified tungsten filament bulb.
The current folding screen is simply folded in half, but let's imagine that decades later, a hundred years later, just like in the movie, the mobile phone has become thin like a piece of paper, which can be folded and folded again. In the long run, today's folding screen mobile phones may be a transitional product - like the light bulbs that often exploded at that time. Until this period, there will be a long wait.
Therefore, for most users today, the mobile phone still does not need to be folded; but for mobile phone manufacturers, it needs to be folded, and the folding is the future.
It's like going in the opposite direction
From the perspective of theory and the history of mobile phone development, folding screen mobile phones have gone the opposite way.
In 1973, Motorola launched the world's first true mobile phone, DynaTAC, the so-called "Big Brother". 23 years later, Motorola released the world's first flip phone, the StarTac. The compact folding body can protect the keyboard and screen, and the weight is only 88g, which can be easily put into the pocket, and people call it "the treasure in the palm of the hand".
The emergence of palm treasure has changed people's stereotype of thick and monotonous mobile phones, so that the mobile phone industry has gradually developed in the direction of thinness and fashion. In the following decade, flip phones and button phones of Nokia, Motorola and other brands have become popular.
In 2007, the iPhone came out, and the mobile phone industry quickly entered the era of touch screen, straight screen and large screen from the era of clamshell and mechanical keyboard. However, after more than ten years of development, straight-screen mobile phones have also entered a bottleneck period, and the design of major manufacturers is becoming more and more homogeneous, but the screen is getting bigger and bigger, and it continues to develop in the direction of "full screen", and there is no design of industry innovation.
History proves that from thick to small, from complex to simple, from small screens to large screens, the development and evolution of mobile phones has been following the principle of "streamlining". Constantly reduce unnecessary design, reduce many unnecessary use operations for users.
However, the emergence of folding screen mobile phones is undoubtedly a complication of the mobile phone itself and the user's use of operations. For example, the extra clamshell action, the experience upgrade brought by it is not only not a leapfrog improvement compared to the non-folding mobile phone, but even like returning to the old road of more than ten years.
In terms of form, folding screen mobile phones currently have two forms. One is folded up and down, and the other is folded left and right. But no matter which form, it is not in line with "ergonomics" and it is difficult to meet the needs of consumers.
In terms of thickness, many years ago, the mobile phone industry has appeared under 7mm ultra-thin mobile phones. With the advent of the 5nm process, the mobile phone has taken another step forward in thickness. However, the folding screen mobile phones on the market at present, the thickness is basically about 15mm, which is equivalent to the thickness of two straight-screen mobile phones superimposed together.
In terms of quality, as the lightest folding screen mobile phone at present, OPPO's Find N still weighs 275g, and its manufacturer's products are almost around 300g, compared with the iPhone13, which weighs only 140g, the folding screen mobile phone on the market will bring obvious pressure to people.
Although the vertical screen folding is light and small, it is no different from the straight-screen mobile phone; although the horizontal screen folding has a good visual effect after opening, it is thick, heavy and large when folded. With the current technology, the folding screen mobile phone can not do the small size and the screen is also large.
Whether it is from the perspective of mobile phone development history, product concept, or compared with the use effect of straight-screen mobile phones, folding screen mobile phones are more like a "reverse" development.
The cost is high
Interestingly, the product of such a "reverse" development has been "high" compared to the pricing of direct-screen mobile phones.
The first folding screen phone galaxy fold released by Samsung in 2019 costs as much as 15999 yuan; the Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G released the following year is priced at 16999 yuan; and the vertical folding solution Galaxy Z Flip3 5G released at the end of 2021 has dropped to 7599 yuan.
In terms of Xiaomi's MIX FOLD, the price of the 12GB+256GB version at the time of release was 9999 yuan, and the current Xiaomi official website shows that the 12GB+256GB version is priced at 6999 yuan, which has been reduced by 3000 yuan compared with the starting price. The OPPO Find N, which went on sale on December 23 last year, started at only 7699 yuan.
Although the price of folding screen mobile phones has been declining in the past three years, the decline is relatively large, but it is still several thousand higher than that of straight-screen mobile phones. At the same time, the price decline does not represent a reduction in the cost of the folding screen. On the contrary, the production cost of folding screen mobile phones is still very high, and the reduction in price is mostly achieved by manufacturers by reducing specifications or profits.
Yu Chengdong, president of Huawei, once said: "The cost of such products is very high, and we are still losing money." The cost is too high for you to believe, and there is no way to make a profit at this time. ”
According to Zinc Finance, in the entire industry chain, folding screen mobile phone screens and hinges occupy the bulk of the cost.
According to Omdia's research data, the price of the folding screen is between $150 and $250, which translates to between one thousand yuan and one thousand seven yuan. The price of conventional flexible OLED screens is also as high as around $80. Moreover, mainstream brands will have their own size customization needs, and the investment will be more.
In terms of hinges, the hinge hinges of folding phones from Samsung and Huawei cost about $40. Liu Zuohu, OPPO's chief product officer, once said: OPPO Find N is equipped with a teardrop hinge, and the single cost has reached 100 US dollars.
Although the folding screen process has been iterated for a long time, the supply chain has gradually matured, but the current folding screen is still creased, and the longer the crease is used, the deeper the crease, which is determined by the material, the crease is irreversible, and the crease is more obvious to the user after a year of use.
In addition, if the folding screen mobile phone appears damaged, the repair cost of its screen is very high.
Recently, a brand of folding screen mobile phone purchased by Mr. Zhou in Shanghai has successively had the problem of screen bright spots and touch failure during the warranty period, and the screen has been replaced twice for free. But unexpectedly, the warranty period was only five months later, and Mr. Zhou's mobile phone screen once again had a bright spot problem.
"The official after-sales service on the grounds of exceeding the warranty period, proposed that it can spend 9400 yuan to replace the screen, I think the price is too high, the other party finally said that it can spend more than 8,000 yuan to replace the screen." Mr. Zhou said.
High cost is doomed to high price, and high price determines sales volume and share.
Guojin Securities pointed out that in 2021, the global sales of folding screen mobile phones will reach 7.5 million. According to a report by market analysis agency DIGIMIES Research, global smartphone shipments will be about 1.32 billion units in 2021. In contrast, the proportion of folding screen mobile phones is less than 0.6%.
Perhaps with the upgrading of folding technology, folding screen mobile phones can one day have the advantages of "small size, large screen", but the problem is that the direct screen mobile phone at that time is very likely to be lighter and thinner than the folding screen mobile phone.
Therefore, in the short term, unless the technology of the folding screen mobile phone breaks out, it is lighter and thinner than the current mobile phone after folding, otherwise it does not have much significance. This will only be a product in a subdivision direction, not the main line.
Just one direction
Before the end of 2021, the folding screen market is still in the oligarchic stage, Samsung occupies the vast majority of the market share, Huawei gets a share of Samsung, and other brands can be said to be few.
However, starting from 2022, the folding screen mobile phone market will enter the bullish stage. This has nothing to do with whether the folding screen will be needed by consumers, but has its unique value.
Think about it carefully, since the advent of Apple mobile phones, straight-screen mobile phones have gone through a blowout period, stabilized, and now have entered a bottleneck period.
In the years of rapid development of direct-screen mobile phones, almost every generation of new machines of major manufacturers can make people shine, whether it is an increasingly large screen ratio or a smaller and smaller front-facing camera. All kinds of full screens, curved screens, waterfall screens, can be said to be a hundred flowers blooming.
However, in the past two years, at the launch of new products for direct-screen mobile phones, there have been fewer and fewer eye-catching design innovations. Most are based on previous generation product stack hardware, optimized software, and small experience improvements.
The mobile phone industry that has entered the bottleneck period has not appeared for too long, the ceiling is too close, and the growth of manufacturers is also very weak. The emergence of the folding screen has allowed mobile phone manufacturers and users to see a hint of the possibility of future mobile phone forms.
Compared with AR, VR wearable, implantable and other distant devices, the current technology is mature and can be put into the mass consumer market, which is also a choice for folding screens. In this case, the major mobile phone manufacturers can only "sword to the side", try to develop in the direction of "folding screen", and do an exploration.
The orientation is correct, but it is difficult to build a good folding screen mobile phone. But it is precisely because it is difficult, so the folding screen mobile phone is also a good way to show technology, which is also a good challenge for mobile phone manufacturers with technology labels. At the same time, folding screen mobile phones, as a new form of products, can also enrich the categories of manufacturers.
More importantly, before the "folding screen" is not verified, no one can guarantee whether the "folding screen" will be the entrance to the next era of innovation, and the development of folding screen mobile phones may also be a transition period in the next mobile phone era.
Just like the story of Edison's invention of the light bulb, it is based on the research and development of many scientists to make the last step of improvement. If the "light bulb" developed by Goebbels and Swann is likened to a folding screen mobile phone, then Edison's light bulb is likely to be the originator of the next era of mobile phones.
Any scientific and technological development has a transitional stage, and the key lies in the length of the transitional stage. Nowadays, manufacturers gather in the folding screen mobile phone market, which is now a vase, and may be the predecessor of the cool black technology in the future.