After BYD announced its own new energy vehicle price adjustment plan and figures, the companies playing electric vehicles in the Chinese market basically trembled. After all, this is the only automotive company that has developed and manufactured a whole chain from raw material mining to extraction to advanced technology development and manufacturing, and in the process of transformation, BYD is also the first company to complete the proportion of new energy sales exceeding the proportion of traditional technology.
When market benchmarks give new changes, it is obvious that the industry will also move. Moreover, this time, there are unforeseen variables in the relevant pressure, and the related costs of lithium have risen sharply, so the industry may change faster and greater than before.
Is it necessary for the automotive industry to panic? Is it possible to stagnate or roll back after the penetration rate has just broken through 20%? Is it possible to suspend the development plan of new energy vehicles?
From the current point of view, there are actually new variables.
For the industry, how much price adjustment is normal, and whether BYD's price adjustment is cruel
In fact, in the new energy plans of many car companies, the time point at which the price adjustment should occur is concentrated at the time point when Q1 ends Q2 and the end of March and the beginning of April, because the corresponding pre-slope dividend can also be harvested. However, at present, affecting the development of new energy vehicles, in addition to the further decline of 30% that has been predicted in advance, the cost of corresponding materials for power batteries has also risen rapidly in the same period.
At present, cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium have risen significantly in 2021, and the power battery industry is also constantly adjusting related strategies, such as de-cobaltation to stabilize costs, but unfortunately, the biggest increase in the current pressure comes from lithium.
Cathode materials, which account for about 90% of the cost of power batteries, have a huge impact. Today's power battery costs are rising, around 45%-50%, lithium iron phosphate is slightly lower / ternary lithium batteries are slightly higher.
The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently about 550,000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of more than 400%;
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, currently around 350,000 yuan / ton, is still rising;
The price of lithium hydroxide, currently around 300,000 yuan / ton, is still rising.
Moreover, at present, the rise in raw materials is not only a problem faced by Chinese car companies/power battery industry, but a problem that needs to be solved such as global supply chain upgrading and raw material mining.
Many media have also given the corresponding new speculations, in the current situation of obvious changes in the relationship between supply and demand, coupled with the fact that global car companies have begun to exert new energy vehicles, it is likely to further appear "battery shortage" situation. In Q4 2021, a series of European car companies/government departments have given relevant warnings that "the supply of existing raw materials is limited, and while car companies are throwing money, market activity is lower due to the supply chain".
From this point of view, the current price adjustment of new energy vehicles, if deduced according to the "battery shortage", may actually be just the beginning, and it is still in a good place.
Looking at BYD's relevant price adjustments, as well as the relevant new energy vehicle price adjustments in the automotive industry, you and I can have a general judgment on the attitude of car companies to consumers.
BYD's price adjustment range in 1000 yuan -7000 yuan, after the release of the relevant news, we conducted a relevant visit to the BYD 4S store, the price adjustment method as a whole is "the price adjustment of the hot-selling models is small, basically in 1000-3000 yuan, the original price is lower / the sales volume is relatively low models, the price adjustment range is larger." That is to say, in BYD's price adjustment logic, it is currently in a more reasonable and controllable state, and it will be further adjusted according to the next development situation.
From the official news of the car companies that have been released so far, in addition to BYD's direct price adjustment, there are 3 types of solutions.
1. Gentle price adjustment mode, such as not adjusting the price - the original terminal discount is reduced, the price is adjusted - but the corresponding other compensation scheme is given. Geometric cars belong to the former, Xiaopeng (financial installment interest rate), zero run (financial installment discount), Euler, etc. belong to the latter;
2. Pass on to the consumer model, has always been very tough / strong in the treatment of consumer attitude / self-development when Tesla, the choice is to directly increase the price, let consumers pay the logic, of course, in view of the Tesla price often changes, the nature that can be left to consumers is "in case of earning";
3. Hard resistance or pending mode, some larger enterprises, the current general is in this mode, such as GAC Aian's price increase, and then such as the north and south volkswagen is in a pending state, but before giving 8600 yuan of related publicity words.
Judging from the current state of new energy vehicles, major car companies, except for Tesla, are basically operating the consumer market reasonably. Wait further for the next next step in the overall market changes.
Where are the 3 variables?
Where may the next overall market change come from?
First and foremost, it is the automobile companies themselves. Including battery technology, manufacturing, marketing attitudes, etc., the former is the most difficult to enforce, and the latter two have better landing ability. Battery technology is currently in high difficulty for major car companies, but many forward-looking layouts have actually gained benefits. For example, Tesla's 4680 battery began mass production this year, the utilization rate of raw materials is higher, and the cost is shared; for example, Volkswagen's standardized batteries, although they cannot land this year, but with the subsequent completion of scale, further cost sharing can be achieved. But in addition, there are not many other solutions that can be seen in front of us at the moment for automotive companies/power battery factories.
In terms of manufacturing and marketing attitudes, the main landing point lies in the trade-off between car companies' market share and their own profits. For example, whether to give up part of its own profits, maintain the price, or cut off some non-essential configurations to maintain the price, or further innovation in manufacturing technology, such as Tesla's one-piece body, to reduce the basic cost.
The second variable, on policy regulation.
In view of the high policy dependence of automobiles, the current main line of the mainland is "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality", and "route 2.0" is constantly landing. It is foreseeable that the automotive industry, as an important part of carbon neutrality, will play a very important regulatory role. At present, the national subsidy slope belongs to the foreseeable and reasonable category of the industry, and the rise of raw materials is still in the category of further development and observation, such as the real beginning of the situation like "chip shortage", and the relevant intervention is expected to be achieved quickly.
However, for automobile companies, there should be no excessive dependence on external forces, but also depends on the subsequent market status.
The third variable, a new breakthrough in global related technologies.
Different from the logical chain between traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles do not clearly form an absolute single supply and demand relationship such as "oil-internal combustion engine" because they need to use a large number of compounds and metal elements. The world relies heavily on China for magnesium supply, as does the mining and processing of rare earths. In the new energy automobile industry, almost no country can grasp the control of basic materials at the same time, and thus form external restrictions.
Because of this, the world is constantly making technological innovations in the mining and utilization of elements, and the speed of innovation is faster than that of the traditional industrial era. In addition to new resource exploration, there are many startups around the world trying out new modes of raw material extraction, such as extracting lithium from river water.
For example, among the current global auto giants, Daimler and BMW have begun to continuously implement the concept of recyclability/recyclability, which further makes enterprises have vitality and anti-risk ability.
Write at the end:
Despite a series of variables, the pressure on car companies is actually enormous. From a pessimistic point of view, this will make consumers' purchase costs rise in a certain period of time, and it may even happen that car companies will reduce the user experience through larger allocation reductions in order to pursue profits, or even others.
On the bright side, under greater pressure, it will further complete the reshuffle of the market, so that advanced enterprises/excellent enterprises can continue to survive and complete more adequate competition. The low-quality enterprises that originally existed in the market will be eliminated as much as possible in the new round of pressure.
The market is always changing, this is a consistent iron law, should new energy vehicles in 2022 be pessimistic? At the moment, you don't have to. Because in the medium and long term, the iteration of advanced technology to traditional technology is inevitable.