A few days ago, Taiwan media revealed that Tsai Ing-wen will send Lai Ching-te, deputy leader of the Taiwan region, to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new Honduran president, Castro. This means that on January 25, Lai Qingde will start a six-day and five-night trip to Honduras for the first time as a deputy. But in fact, Tsai Ing-wen had already dug three pits and waited for Lai Qingde to jump in.
In fact, the DPP is not monolithic, not only is the internal faction complex, Lai Qingde has also been suppressed by Tsai Ing-wen in the DPP. This can be seen in the strong challenge of Tsai Ing-wen, who sought re-election in 2020, but was strongly challenged by Lai Ching-te, then head of Taiwan's administrative agency. At that time, Lai Qingde, who had won the support of many dark green people on the island, had the intention of standing up his own banner. However, in the end, Tsai Ing-wen broke the deadlock under the strong suppression of the camp forces and successfully re-elected, which can also be regarded as one of the reasons for deepening the gap between the two.
Looking at several key figures in the Taiwan authorities, whether it is Su Zhenchang, head of Taiwan's administrative organs, or Wu Zhaoxie, head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department, Lai Ching-te seems to have rarely carried a big banner in the "big war" of the DPP authorities compared with them. It can be said that it was not until the "four major referendums" that Lai Qingde gained a wave of "good feelings" on the island, second only to Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei, and ranked second in the ranking of political figures voted by the people on the island.
But for Lai Qingde's trip to Honduras, Li Mingyi, a professor at the Institute of Educational Administration at Pingtung University in Taiwan, believes that the trip to Honduras is a journey where political interests and risks coexist for Lai Qingde. Li Mingyi pointed out that it is obvious that Lai Qingde's trip to Honduras was carried with the tasks entrusted by Tsai Ing-wen, for example, consolidating the so-called "diplomatic relations" between Taiwan and Honduras is the top priority of Lai Qingde's trip. But Li Mingyi also pointed out that although the trip to Honduras will help Lai Qingde improve his political visibility, he should also beware of the three pits that Tsai Ing-wen dug for him.
First of all, in view of the fact that the new president of Honduras is more pro-China, he made it clear during the campaign that he intended to establish diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland. Although Honduras has been slow to take a substantive step under pressure from the United States, if Lai Qingde does not successfully complete the task of deepening "diplomatic relations" with Honduras, or even if a situation of "severing diplomatic relations" occurs after Lai Qingde's "foreign visit" to Honduras, then it is bound to be Lai Qingde's responsibility to lose another "country with diplomatic relations."
Secondly, according to the island's epidemic prevention policy, Lai Qingde will need to stay at home for 14 days and manage himself for 7 days after ending his trip to Honduras on January 30. In this way, lai Qingde's day of completing epidemic prevention and isolation perfectly missed the Lunar New Year. It should be known that in the island, it is the inherent tradition of politicians on the island to visit the temple to visit the temple and narrow the distance with the people. But Lai Qingde had to miss this great opportunity to get close to the people because of isolation.
In addition, in addition to Lai Qingde, US Vice President Harris will also attend Castro's inauguration. In addition to meeting with U.S. officials such as Harris in Honduras, the DPP authorities often used the opportunity of "visits" to "transit" the United States. On the one hand, how the US side will arrange for Lai Qingde will become an indicator of observation between China and the United States, on the other hand, even if the meeting between HARRIS and other US officials and Lai Qingde is arranged in Honduras, its political sensitivity will anger Chinese mainland. At that time, if Chinese mainland intervene to counter the provocations of the Taiwan authorities, then all the responsibility will be Lai Qingde's.
Therefore, on the surface, Lai Qingde's first "foreign visit" to Honduras as a deputy can be a good way to pave the way for his 2024 "general election" and improve his sense of political existence, but a deep dive into many details shows that Tsai Ing-wen has dug a lot of pits and waited for Lai Qingde to jump.