Spending money to buy loyalty, how long can Tsai Ing-wen's "gold dollar diplomacy" last?
On January 17, 2022, a Guatemalan mainstream media outlet called The Liberty Press reported that the DPP authorities under Tsai Ing-wen provided Guatemala with a sum of money, and then the Guatemalan government took a portion of the money and signed a year-long contract with washington's "Ballard partner" U.S. lobbying firm. Under the contract, the Guatemalan government pays Ballard $900,000 a year in lobbying fees, and Ballard's main task is to strengthen Guatemala's relationship with the U.S. government, Congress, and U.S. business and political elites. Simply put, the Ballard lobbying company in Washington, D.C., took $900,000 from the Guatemalan government and said good things for the Guatemalan government in front of the U.S. government. What attracts attention is that the $900,000 spent by the Guatemalan government is not its own money, but given by the Taiwan authorities, which is the main reason why this news can be called "fierce material". Because people generally feel strange about this, after all, the Guatemalan government wants to repair diplomatic relations with the Biden administration in the United States, but the person who pays for this fee is the DPP authorities in Taiwan.
There are three points that need to be explored on this issue. First, the reason why the current Government of Guatemala is anxious to repair relations with Washington. After US President Joe Biden took office, his views on Central And Latin American countries were relatively negative. At the end of last year, Biden convened 110 countries and regions around the world for a so-called "global democracy summit." No matter how many authoritarian and monarchy states participated, it can be seen from the holding of this democracy summit that as a president by law, Biden's philosophy is democracy, freedom, human rights, and he hates corruption. Of course, this belief in corruption is not necessarily true, but at least it seems to be.
Therefore, after the Biden administration came to power, it was very unaccustomed to the Guatemalan government. As a Central American country, Guatemala still cannot escape a problem that is universal to all American countries: corruption. From the president down to the officials at all levels, it can be said that there is no official, no corruption, no official and no corruption. According to this political philosophy of US President Joe Biden, Guatemala is clearly completely out of step with the United States. So at The suggestion of President Biden, the relationship between the United States and Guatemala has become estranged, which has caused some panic in the Guatemalan government. Because no matter whether the Guatemalan government is clean or corrupt, in this part of Central America, the United States is still the "big boss" behind the manipulation of various countries, as long as the "big boss" is not happy, then the Guatemalan government may step down at any time, so the Guatemalan government urgently needs to repair the relationship with the US government to safeguard its own interests.
- Why the Guatemalan government asked for help lobbying companies. If the Guatemalan government repairs its relations with the U.S. government and the U.S. political circles through normal diplomatic channels, such as the Guatemalan ambassador to Washington or the U.S. ambassador to Guatemala, there will be no results. In this case, the lobbying system unique to the United States and even the Western world plays a major role. The Washington-based Ballard lobbying firm, which the Guatemalan government found, played that role. For example, if Guatemala encounters difficulties and cannot find a relationship, ballard can play the role of a political broker and make a profit by charging lobbying fees. But this lobbying fee is simply not available to the current Guatemalan government, or does not want to take it out. After all, officials are corrupt, and no one wants to pay for the government from their own pockets. Therefore, after receiving the request of the Ballard Lobbying Company for $900,000 in lobbying fees, the Guatemalan government immediately thought very cleverly that since its own treasury was empty, there was no way to pay this money, but there was a big wronged person who was willing to come out, and this wronged big head was Tsai Ing-wen.
- Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP authorities reason for paying this fee. Whether active or passive, willing or unwilling, the DPP authorities have to pay this fee. The reason is that Guatemala is now one of the only 14 so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" left by the DPP authorities, and it is a relatively important so-called "country with diplomatic relations." So Tsai Ing-wen is now roasted on the fire, and when Guatemala asks for money, she can only pinch her nose and admit it. In the face of the Guatemalan government's demands, Tsai Ing-wen may have two mentalities, the first is to pinch her nose and admit it, otherwise the Guatemalan government will suddenly turn against the water, emulate neighboring Nicaragua, and restore diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland, and Tsai Ing-wen will cry without tears. Second, Tsai Ing-wen may be very happy, because although the money will be partially embezzled by the Guatemalan government, a considerable part of it will be transferred to the lobbying companies in the United States, which is equivalent to indirectly sending money to the Americans. If Tsai Ing-wen figures out this joint, then she will be very happy when she pays for it. After all, this move can not only stabilize Guatemala, but also to please the Americans, for Tsai Ing-wen, only 900,000 US dollars to achieve the purpose of killing two birds with one stone, why not.
In fact, since coming to power in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen has been constantly opening up the so-called "international space" of Taiwan under the blessing of "golden dollar diplomacy", and the impact of "gold dollar diplomacy" on the development of cross-strait relations should not be underestimated. First of all, after Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, she harvested a wave of leeks on the people of Taiwan by waving the stick of "gold-dollar diplomacy". When Tsai Ing-wen first took over, there were 18 so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan. However, in the face of the strong rise of Chinese mainland, Tsai Ing-wen's "golden dollar diplomacy" has also slowly lost its color, and Chinese mainland rely on its own strong influence to squeeze the space for so-called "diplomatic activities" of the Tsai Ing-wen DEMOCRATIC Party authorities step by step. In 2021, the number of so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" owned by the DPP authorities has plummeted from 18 to 14, which is a heavy blow to Tsai Ing-wen. In this case, Tsai Ing-wen has only two ways to go: either abandon the "gold dollar diplomacy" and then submit to orders; or resist to the end and fight against Chinese mainland. It can be seen from the recent practice of the DPP authorities in sending 900,000 US dollars to Guatemala that Tsai Ing-wen has obviously chosen the second step, and the more she strikes Chinese mainland, the more stubbornly she resists, and does not hesitate to give Taiwan's people's cream to the Guatemalan government, and then indirectly transfer it to the Americans. This choice by Tsai Ing-wen shows that the DPP authorities have already gone down a dark road on the road of seeking "independence" and do not need to hold any expectations at all.
Second, Tsai Ing-wen's "gold-dollar diplomacy" will have two major impacts on Chinese mainland settlement of the Taiwan issue. First, it will certainly create more trouble, the typical example is Lithuania. Lithuania's allowing the Taiwan authorities to carry out activities in Vilnius under the name of the "Taiwan Representative Office" actually made a very bad start. On the one hand, it has not broken diplomatic relations with the Chinese mainland, but it has also played a strategic blur on the "one China" principle and allowed the Taiwan authorities to carry out activities in the name of the "Taiwan Representative Office." The purpose of this is to create the erroneous impression of "two Chinas" in fact. So when Lithuania was subjected to strong Chinese sanctions, Tsai Ing-wen could be said to have thrown out 1.2 billion yuan of industrial fund loans without hesitation, ready to help Lithuania tide over the difficulties. In this sense, the role played by Tsai Ing-wen's "gold-dollar diplomacy" can still not be underestimated. After all, in 2021, the total import and export trade of Taiwan has reached more than 300 billion US dollars, and Tsai Ing-wen can still do it by spending more than one billion or two billion US dollars to buy political loyalty in so-called "diplomacy" for herself. If Tsai Ing-wen continues to wave the cheque, she will certainly cause great passivity to the international environment created by the Chinese mainland to resolve the Taiwan issue.
Second, the so-called political loyalty bought by Tsai Ing-wen wielding a check can be handled calmly Chinese mainland. Because China is a great power and a global country with increasing influence, in the face of this rising trend, every country has to weigh and weigh the price to be paid by stepping on the political red line set by China. Today Lithuania is a prime example, and Nicaragua has set a very good example for Tsai Ing-wen's so-called 14 "countries with diplomatic relations." Therefore, from this point of view, Chinese mainland on the one hand, we must stabilize our position, on the other hand, we must also take the initiative to attack. For the 14 so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" that Tsai Ing-wen now maintains by waving banknotes, Chinese mainland should actively strengthen diplomatic efforts, crack down one by one, and completely disintegrate Tsai Ing-wen's "diplomatic efforts", and finally let Tsai Ing-wen truly become an orphan in international politics.