On January 20, the National Health Commission held a press conference on the progress and experience and practices of implementing the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Optimizing the Birth Policy and Promoting the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population."
Speaking of the question of "whether the decline in the birth population indicates that the mainland's demographic dividend is shrinking or disappearing", Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Min University, said that China is still in the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend, but this window is about to close.
On January 20, the National Health Commission held a press conference, and Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Min University, answered reporters' questions. Photo by Li Jia, China Net
Song Jian said that the demographic dividend is closely related to the change in the age structure of the population, and the demographic dividend can also be called "structural dividend". The age structure of the population can be divided into three parts, the middle one is the working-age population, the other is the children's population, and the elderly population. In the process of population transformation, on the one hand, the decline in fertility has led to a significant decline in the proportion of the young population, and at the same time, the proportion of the elderly population has not been so high, resulting in a situation in which the proportion of the middle working-age population is particularly high. This situation we call it the demographic dividend opportunity window period, that is to say, it is a window of opportunity, not necessarily able to really become a dividend. Since the reform and opening up, China has fully seized the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend, harvested the demographic dividend, and promoted the rapid development of China's social economy.
How to judge the future trend? Song Jian said that the current birth population is declining, in fact, the proportion of children aged 0-14 will continue to decline, while the proportion of our elderly population is rising rapidly. China is still in the window of opportunity for the demographic dividend, but this window is about to close. In the future, it is necessary to turn the structural dividend into a longer-term quality dividend, fully tap the elderly population and female population in the population, and fully tap the elderly dividend and gender dividend in the demographic dividend.
Released by China