According to the data of new car traffic insurance, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 was 2.917 million units, an increase of 155.4% over 2020, and the annual penetration rate in the narrow passenger car market reached 13.8%; among them, the sales of new energy vehicles in December 2021 were 484,000 units, accounting for 21.3% of the total sales volume of automobiles in that month.
It can be said that the performance of the domestic new energy market in 2021 is brilliant. Since new energy vehicles are selling well, the battery industry should be very happy, but why is there still this article today?
Since 2021, the price increase of raw materials for power batteries has been continuous for a long time. It is understood that the price of lithium carbonate has broken through from 57,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to 180,000 yuan / ton, and the price of cobalt resources has exceeded 380,000 yuan / ton. According to data released by Shanghai Steel Federation in October last year, the price of lithium battery materials that has been growing since the beginning of 2021 is still in a state of general increase. Among them, cobalt carbonate, electrolytic cobalt, lithium metal, lithium hexafluorophosphate and other materials have increased in price to varying degrees.
According to the preliminary calculation of Gaogong Lithium Battery (GGII), the theoretical cost of battery cells and battery systems has risen by more than 30% due to the increase in raw material prices. Among them, the theoretical cost of square iron lithium batteries rose from 0.33 to 0.39 yuan / Wh at the beginning of 2021 to 0.48 ~ 0.54 yuan / Wh; the theoretical cost of square power 523 batteries increased from 0.45 to 0.51 yuan / Wh to 0.61 ~ 0.67 yuan / Wh; the theoretical cost of the corresponding cylindrical three-yuan 523 batteries rose from 0.4 to 0.46 yuan / Wh to 0.58 ~ 0.64 yuan / Wh.
Why is this happening? In fact, this is similar to the chip crisis. When there is a sudden surge in sales of vehicles, the production capacity of raw material suppliers cannot keep up, and prices will naturally increase under short supply. Of course, this is only one reason, and factors such as the printing of currencies in many countries to stimulate economic recovery have also had an impact. Perhaps some people have said that the price of the material is expensive, and the battery manufacturer does not have an excuse to raise the price? This is still a good thing for the battery industry. However, the truth is just the opposite, the battery industry is suffering.
Battery manufacturers and car companies will sign long-term agreements in most cases, at least the price of the next 1 to 2 years will be locked, that is to say, the price fluctuations in the short term will not affect the transaction between the two sides. Breaking teeth and swallowing into the stomach may be a true portrayal of the current battery industry. According to common sense, the imbalance between supply and demand is actually very well resolved in the automotive chain, and generally does not have a long-term impact. Therefore, for the battery industry, surviving the first half of the year may usher in a sweet.
However, under the superposition of the ultra-long sustainability of the chip crisis, as well as the "double carbon" goal, the progress of new energy vehicles, the development of the energy storage industry, etc., there has been an unprecedented strong demand for new energy vehicles, which has made the demand for the battery industry more and more exuberant, and has continued until now.
Some insiders believe that in the context of the imbalance between supply and demand, superimposed on factors such as power rationing, the upward trend of power battery raw material prices may continue until the first half of this year. In addition, according to SNE Research forecast, by 2023, the demand for power batteries for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 406GWh, and the supply is expected to be 335GWh, with a gap of about 18%; by 2025, the supply gap will reach 40%.
From this data, even if battery manufacturers can support the day the contract expires and re-formulate the price, under the expanding supply gap, battery manufacturers will have a hard time adapting to long-term contracts. Therefore, it is not a long-term solution to bear alone, and it is the most important thing to find a way to break through.
Based on the pressure of suppliers, some power battery companies have proposed price increase intentions. Penghui Energy, which has cooperated with CAR companies such as SAIC-GM-Wuling, Changan Automobile and Chery Automobile, issued a price increase letter in October last year. Battery companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Tianneng Lithium Battery have also issued product price adjustment contact letters to renegotiate orders. On October 26, 2021, BYD lithium batteries also reported that the product tax-inclusive price will rise by no less than 20% on the basis of the current Wh unit price, and on November 1, the new contract was officially signed for all new orders, and the old contract orders that were not executed were uniformly closed and cancelled to cope with the cost pressure caused by the rise of lithium battery raw materials and the power rationing.
It can be seen that the pressure of battery manufacturers is gradually released, followed by the pressure of automobile manufacturers. Therefore, both battery manufacturers and car manufacturers hope to solve the gap problem. In the end, the solution to the problem falls on the supply chain and technology level. At present, the reason for the shortage of material supply is not only the lack of production capacity, but also because the current battery relies heavily on rare metals. The key to solving this problem lies in how to reduce the dependence on nickel, cobalt and lithium metals through technology.
At this point, each family can be described as eight immortals crossing the sea. For example, Nissan Leaf chose to use lithium manganate and ternary lithium batteries to reduce costs. For example, the Ningde era, which released sodium-ion batteries last July, is studying the mixing and matching of sodium-ion batteries and lithium-ion batteries. There is also BMW's self-developed battery mentioned earlier, and the cobalt content in the battery cathode material of the fifth generation of power batteries is reduced to less than 10%, and the use of nickel materials is increased by 50%, and the fifth generation eDrive electric drive system will no longer use rare earths.
In fact, in addition to solving the problem from the source, it is also a good idea to solve it from the perspective of recycling batteries. Today's car power batteries inevitably have a "disposable product" meaning. Spending a lot of money to create a "disposable industrial product" is not only unhealthy in the industry, but also very un "green" in terms of environmental protection. Therefore, from the perspective of battery companies, can we strengthen research in this area and achieve truly healthy green development?
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